Basins at Risk: Predicting International River Basin Conflict and Cooperation
Abstract
Growing demands for water combined with supply constraints may lead to an increased potential for international water conflicts, because many of the world’s freshwater systems cut across national boundaries. Which international river basins are likely to experience greater conflict risks or more cooperation? What factors increase or decrease conflict risk (cooperation)? We use prediction and forecasting approaches to address these questions and compare the results with findings of an earlier “basins at risk” study. Whereas the earlier study identified twenty-nine basins at risk, our study identifies forty-four such river basins. We also arrive at different findings with respect to key determinants of river basin conflict and cooperation. Our analytical approach also can help to increase the robustness of explanatory models in other areas of environmental politics, and could make research findings more policy-relevant by moving from ex-post analysis to in-sample prediction and out-of-sample forecasting.
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Dams under construction in Turkey on the Euphrates and Tigris may have severe consequences for the river water budget of cities in Iraq.
“Dams under construction in Turkey on the Euphrates and Tigris may have severe consequences for the river water budget of cities in Iraq [71][72][73].”
From Urban Stream and Wetland Restoration in the Global South—A DPSIR Analysis (2019) · cites this paper as [73]
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- Authors
- Bernauer, T., & Böhmelt, T.
- Venue
- Global Environmental Politics
- Publisher
- MIT Press - Journals
- Published
- 2014-11
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 116-138
- ISSN
- 1526-3800 (ISSN-L)
- 1536-0091
- OpenAlex
- W1998447271
- Cited by
- 45
- References
- 32
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 8.69
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Global Environmental Politics (publishedVersion)
- Open Access at Essex (University of Essex) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Project Muse (Johns Hopkins University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Social Sciences › Law › Water Resources and Governance
- Keywords
- transboundary river basins, transboundary water disputes, water cooperation, freshwater scarcity, water demand, transboundary water governance, environmental politics
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