Does Information Help Recovering Structural Shocks from past Observations?
Open accessAbstract
This paper asks two questions. First, can we detect empirically whether the shocks recovered from the estimates of a structural VAR are truly structural? Second, can the problem of nonfundamentalness be solved by considering additional information? The answer to the first question is "yes" and that to the second is "under some conditions".
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The oil futures spread does not Granger cause the remaining model variables at conventional significance levels for maturities of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months.
“We formally tested this proposition and were unable to reject the null of no Granger causality at conventional significance levels for maturities of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, consistent with the view that the inventory data are as accurate as the oil futures spread.”
From THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL (2014) · cites this paper as Giannone and Reichlin, 2006
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THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL
Kilian, L., & Murphy, D. P. (2014) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.2322 · Cited by 1,481 · see citing works
The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?
Fattouh, B., Kilian, L., & Mahadeva, L. (2013) · The Energy Journal · doi:10.5547/01956574.34.3.2 · Cited by 491 · see citing works
- Authors
- Giannone, D., & Reichlin, L.
- Affiliations
- Centre for Economic Policy Research (GB)
- London Business School (GB)
- Venue
- Journal of the European Economic Association
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2006-05-01
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 2-3
- Pages
- 455-465
- ISSN
- 1542-4766 (ISSN-L)
- 1542-4774
- OpenAlex
- W2171047774
- Cited by
- 133
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 14 · 2012: 13
- FWCI
- 14.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of the European Economic Association (publishedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (submittedVersion)
- Dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (Université Libre de Bruxelles) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (Université Libre de Bruxelles) (submittedVersion)
- IRIS - Institutional Research Information System (Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic theories and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Global Financial Crisis and Policies
- Keywords
- structural shocks, structural vector autoregression, identification of structural shocks, additional information, impulse response functions
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