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The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence*
Open accessAbstract
We introduce imperfect creditor protection in a multicountry Schumpeterian growth model. The theory predicts that any country with more than some critical level of financial development will converge to the growth rate of the world technology frontier, and that all other countries will have a strictly lower long-run growth rate. We present evidence supporting these and other implications, in the form of a cross-country growth regression with a significant and sizable negative coefficient on initial per-capita GDP (relative to the United States) interacted with financial intermediation. In addition, we find that other variables representing schooling, geography, health, policy, politics, and institutions do not affect the significance of the interaction between financial intermediation and initial per capita GDP, and do not show any independent effect on convergence in the regressions. Our findings are robust to removal of outliers and to alternative conditioning sets, estimation procedures, and measures of financial development.
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“Aghion, Howitt, and Mayer-Foulkes (2005) challenge that conclusion and stress that financial development explains the speed with which countries convergence to their steady-state values.”
From Finance, Growth, and Inequality (2021) · cites this paper as Aghion, Howitt, and Mayer-Foulkes (2005)
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Metadata
- Authors
- Aghion, P., Howitt, P., & Mayer-Foulkes, D.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Brown University (US)
- ORCID
- Aghion, Philippe
- Venue
- Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2005-02
- Volume
- 120
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 173-222
- ISSN
- 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
- 1531-4650
- OpenAlex
- W2133207356
- Cited by
- 962
- References
- 115
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 48 · 2022: 31 · 2021: 64 · 2020: 56 · 2019: 45 · 2018: 55 · 2017: 52 · 2016: 38 · 2015: 48 · 2014: 59 · 2013: 56 · 2012: 44
- FWCI
- 109.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- discovery.ucl.ac.uk
- Locations
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Development
- Keywords
- financial development, economic convergence, Schumpeterian growth, technology transfer, financial intermediation, cross-country growth
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Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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