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Crashes, Volatility, and the Equity Premium: Lessons from S&P 500 Options
Open accessAbstract
We use a novel pricing model to imply time series of diffusive volatility and jump intensity from S&P 500 index options. These two measures capture the ex ante risk assessed by investors. Using a simple general equilibrium model, we translate the implied measures of ex ante risk into an ex ante risk premium. The average premium that compensates the investor for the ex ante risks is 70% higher than the premium for realized volatility. The equity premium implied from option prices is shown to significantly predict subsequent stock market returns.
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Cites
The pricing of options and corporate liabilities
Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/260062 · Cited by 29,074
The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability
Cochrane, J. H. (2008) · Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhm046 · Cited by 1,227
Cited by
BOLLERSLEV, T., & TODOROV, V. (2011) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01695.x · Cited by 804
Christoffersen, P., Heston, S., & Jacobs, K. (2009) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.1090.1065 · Cited by 537
Financial Reporting Opacity and Expected Crash Risk: Evidence from Implied Volatility Smirks
Kim, J., & Zhang, L. (2014) · Contemporary Accounting Research · doi:10.1111/1911-3846.12048 · Cited by 486
The Time Variation in Risk Appetite and Uncertainty
Bekaert, G., Engstrom, E. C., & Xu, N. R. (2022) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2021.4068 · Cited by 441
Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?
Wachter, J. A. (2012) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1572738 · Cited by 349
Metadata
- Authors
- Santa-Clara, P., & Yan, S.
- Venue
- Review of Economics and Statistics
- Publisher
- MIT Press - Journals
- Published
- 2010-05
- Volume
- 92
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 435-451
- ISSN
- 0034-6535 (ISSN-L)
- 1530-9142
- OpenAlex
- W2158512712
- Cited by
- 321
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 36.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- Santa-Clara, P., & Yan, S. (2010). Crashes, Volatility, and the Equity Premium: Lessons from S&P 500 Options. Review of Economics and Statistics. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.2010.11549
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.