The DOI matches its Crossref record; 13 of the 15 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections
Abstract
Can terrorist attacks be timed to change the outcome of democratic elections? In this paper, we analyze the electoral impact of the terrorist attacks of March 11, 2004, in Madrid. Studies using individual level postelectoral survey data reach contradictory conclusions. We propose an alternative approach. Since the bombings took place only three days before the 2004 congressional election, we can find a control group of individuals who cast their vote before the terrorist attacks. The results indicate that the attacks had an important electoral impact, rejecting the hypothesis that the identity of the winner was unaffected by the terrorist attacks.
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“In addition to the normative significance of this labeling act, designating an out-group as terrorists strongly impacts voting behavior and election outcomes (Montalvo 2011).”
From Public Opinion and Cyberterrorism (2023) · cites this paper as Montalvo 2011
Citations
Cites
How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?
Bertrand, M., Duflo, E., & Mullainathan, S. (2004) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355304772839588 · Cited by 10,641
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The economic costs of conflict: a case study of the Basque Country
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An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Units
Moulton, B. R. (1990) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.2307/2109724 · Cited by 2,567
The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market
Card, D. (1989) · Industrial and Labor Relations Review · doi:10.2307/2523702 · Cited by 1,878
The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism
Pape, R. A. (2003) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s000305540300073x · Cited by 1,337
Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Difference-in-Differences Models
Athey, S., & Imbens, G. W. (2006) · Econometrica · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00668.x · Cited by 1,084
Asymptotic properties of a robust variance matrix estimator for panel data when is large
Hansen, C. B. (2007) · Journal of Econometrics · doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2006.10.009 · Cited by 293
The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida
Wand, J. N., Shotts, K. W., Sekhon, J. S., Mebane, W. R., Herron, M. C., & Brady, H. E. (2001) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s000305540040002x · Cited by 266
Terror and elections: Lessons from Spain
Bali, V. A. (2007) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2007.04.004 · Cited by 155
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2 of the 15 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 4
- Donald S., 2007, this REVIEW, 89, 221
- Lago I., 2005, Claves de la Razón Práctica, 149, 36
- Montalvo J. G., 2006, Universital Pompeu Fabra working paper, 1000
- Moulton B., 1990, this REVIEW, 72, 334
Cited by
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The Economic Costs of Organised Crime: Evidence from Southern Italy
Pinotti, P. (2015) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1111/ecoj.12235 · Cited by 410
Terrorism and Voting: The Effect of Rocket Threat on Voting in Israeli Elections
GETMANSKY, A., & ZEITZOFF, T. (2014) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055414000288 · Cited by 351
Substituting the End for the Whole: Why Voters Respond Primarily to the Election‐Year Economy
Healy, A., & Lenz, G. (2013) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12053 · Cited by 357
Kaul, A., Klößner, S., Pfeifer, G., & Schieler, M. (2021) · Journal of Business and Economic Statistics · doi:10.1080/07350015.2021.1930012 · Cited by 286
Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls
Ferman, B., Pinto, C. C. D. X., & Possebom, V. (2020) · Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · doi:10.1002/pam.22206 · Cited by 259
Metadata
- Authors
- Montalvo, J. G.
- Affiliations
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES)
- Corresponding author
- Montalvo, José G.
- ORCID
- Montalvo, José G.
- Venue
- Review of Economics and Statistics
- Publisher
- MIT Press
- Published
- 2011-11
- Volume
- 93
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1146-1154
- ISSN
- 0034-6535 (ISSN-L)
- 1530-9142
- OpenAlex
- W1984307355
- Cited by
- 299
- References
- 15
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 32 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 29 · 2020: 37 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 23 · 2017: 18 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 13 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 11 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 49.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Review of Economics and Statistics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Keywords
- terrorist attacks, Madrid train bombings, electoral consequences, voting behavior, democratic elections, 2004 Spanish general election, natural experiment, political violence
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