VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY
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The traditional Brier scoring rule was used to measure accuracy.
“The traditional Brier scoring rule was used to measure accuracy (Brier, 1950).”
From Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments (2016) · cites this paper as Brier, 1950
The Brier scoring rule is proper because forecasters are incentivized to report truthfully.
“The Brier scoring rule is proper because forecasters are incentivized to report truthfully.”
From Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament (2014) · cites this paper as Brier, 1950
Similar metrics have been used to evaluate the calibration of uncertainty quantification [7,9,64]-the estimated uncertainty should reflect the observed error rate.
“Similar metrics have been used to evaluate the calibration of uncertainty quantification [7,9,64]-the estimated uncertainty should reflect the observed error rate.”
From Understanding the Role of Human Intuition on Reliance in Human-AI Decision-Making with Explanations (2023) · cites this paper as [9]
Subjects were not instructed or incentivized to assign probability ranges to each button.
“Because we are interested in subjects’ intrinsic computation of confidence, we did not instruct or incentivize them to assign probability ranges to each button (e.g., by using a scoring rule [34–36]).”
From Comparing Bayesian and non-Bayesian accounts of human confidence reports (2018) · cites this paper as [35]
In the fixed-world-model versus static-verifier comparison, candidate-ranking accuracy increased from 66.5% to 72.8%, and the five-class Brier score decreased from 0.488 to 0.358.
“In this fixed-world-model versus staticverifier comparison, candidate-ranking accuracy increased from 66 . 5% to 72 . 8%, and the five-class Brier score [16] decreased from 0 . 488 to 0 . 358.”
From RSI-Anything: Unlocking Recursive Self-Improvement with World Models (2026) · cites this paper as [16]
Brier score is a proper scoring rule for measuring the accuracy of predicted probabilities.
“Brier Score ↓ (Brier, 1950) Proper scoring rule for measuring the accuracy of predicted probabilities.”
From Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift (2019) · cites this paper as Brier, 1950
Negative log-likelihood and Brier score are the most common general fidelity metrics for calibration.
“The most common metrics of the former category are negative log-likelihood (NLL) and Brier score [15].”
From Uncertainty as a Form of Transparency: Measuring, Communicating, and Using Uncertainty (2021) · cites this paper as [15]
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- Authors
- BRIER, G. W.
- Venue
- Monthly Weather Review
- Published
- 1950
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