The DOI matches its Crossref record; 35 of the 35 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Over 5,000 Years of Ensemble Future Climate Simulations by 60-km Global and 20-km Regional Atmospheric Models
Abstract
An unprecedentedly large ensemble of climate simulations with a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model and dynamical downscaling with a 20-km regional climate model has been performed to obtain probabilistic future projections of low-frequency local-scale events. The climate of the latter half of the twentieth century, the climate 4 K warmer than the preindustrial climate, and the climate of the latter half of the twentieth century without historical trends associated with the anthropogenic effect are each simulated for more than 5,000 years. From large ensemble simulations, probabilistic future changes in extreme events are available directly without using any statistical models. The atmospheric models are highly skillful in representing localized extreme events, such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. Moreover, mean climate changes in the models are consistent with those in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensembles. Therefore, the results enable the assessment of probabilistic change in localized severe events that have large uncertainty from internal variability. The simulation outputs are open to the public as a database called “Database for Policy Decision Making for Future Climate Change” (d4PDF), which is intended to be utilized for impact assessment studies and adaptation planning for global warming.
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The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions.
Hawkins, E., & Sutton, R. (2009) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/2009bams2607.1 · Cited by 2,732
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Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability
Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., & Teng, H. (2012) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x · Cited by 1,739
Global observations of large oceanic eddies
Chelton, D. B., Schlax, M. G., Samelson, R. M., & de Szoeke, R. A. (2007) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2007gl030812 · Cited by 1,252
High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6
Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N. S., Guemas, V., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016 · Cited by 1,149
Self-citationChanges in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble
Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., & Wehner, M. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8 · Cited by 1,082
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000
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Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades
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Self-citationYUKIMOTO, S., ADACHI, Y., HOSAKA, M., SAKAMI, T., YOSHIMURA, H., HIRABARA, M., TANAKA, T. Y., SHINDO, E., TSUJINO, H., DEUSHI, M., et al. (2012) · Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II · doi:10.2151/jmsj.2012-a02 · Cited by 808
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(2023) · Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis · doi:10.1017/9781009157896.003 · Cited by 298
Metadata
- Authors
- Mizuta, R., Murata, A., Ishii, M., Shiogama, H., Hibino, K., Mori, N., Arakawa, O., Imada, Y., Yoshida, K., Aoyagi, T., Kawase, H., Mori, M., Okada, Y., Shimura, T., Nagatomo, T., Ikeda, M., Endo, H., Nosaka, M., Arai, M., Takahashi, C., Tanaka, K., Takemi, T., Tachikawa, Y., Temur, K., Kamae, Y., Watanabe, M., Sasaki, H., Kitoh, A., Takayabu, I., Nakakita, E., & Kimoto, M.
- Venue
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2017-07-01
- Volume
- 98
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 1383-1398
- ISSN
- 0003-0007 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0477
- OpenAlex
- W2558419312
- Cited by
- 503
- References
- 35
- FWCI
- 19.73
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- The paper
- Mizuta, R., Murata, A., Ishii, M., Shiogama, H., Hibino, K., Mori, N., Arakawa, O., Imada, Y., Yoshida, K., Aoyagi, T., Kawase, H., Mori, M., Okada, Y., Shimura, T., Nagatomo, T., Ikeda, M., Endo, H., Nosaka, M., Arai, M., . . . Kimoto, M. (2017). Over 5,000 Years of Ensemble Future Climate Simulations by 60-km Global and 20-km Regional Atmospheric Models. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-16-0099.1
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