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Cited by 689Hydrology and Drought AnalysisPlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsClimate variability and models

Flash Droughts: A Review and Assessment of the Challenges Imposed by Rapid-Onset Droughts in the United States

Otkin, Jason A., Svoboda, Mark, Hunt, Eric D., Ford, Trent W., Anderson, Martha C., Hain, Christopher, Basara, Jeffrey B.·2018·Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
DOI 10.1175/bams-d-17-0149.1
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Abstract

Given the increasing use of the term “flash drought” by the media and scientific community, it is prudent to develop a consistent definition that can be used to identify these events and to understand their salient characteristics. It is generally accepted that flash droughts occur more often during the summer owing to increased evaporative demand; however, two distinct approaches have been used to identify them. The first approach focuses on their rate of intensification, whereas the second approach implicitly focuses on their duration. These conflicting notions for what constitutes a flash drought (i.e., unusually fast intensification vs short duration) introduce ambiguity that affects our ability to detect their onset, monitor their development, and understand the mechanisms that control their evolution. Here, we propose that the definition for “flash drought” should explicitly focus on its rate of intensification rather than its duration, with droughts that develop much more rapidly than normal identified as flash droughts. There are two primary reasons for favoring the intensification approach over the duration approach. First, longevity and impact are fundamental characteristics of drought. Thus, short-term events lasting only a few days and having minimal impacts are inconsistent with the general understanding of drought and therefore should not be considered flash droughts. Second, by focusing on their rapid rate of intensification, the proposed “flash drought” definition highlights the unique challenges faced by vulnerable stakeholders who have less time to prepare for its adverse effects.

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  • Climate change simulation studies predict drought and heat events to worsen over the century with the most severe changes expected to occur in the second half of the century.

    “Climate change simulation studies predict drought and heat events to worsen over the century with the most severe changes expected to occur in the second half of the century.”

    From Genetic resources and precise gene editing for targeted improvement of barley abiotic stress tolerance (2023) · cites this paper as Otkin et al., 2018

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Authors
Otkin, J. A., Svoboda, M., Hunt, E. D., Ford, T. W., Anderson, M. C., Hain, C., & Basara, J. B.
Affiliations
  • University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
  • University of Nebraska–Lincoln (US)
  • Atmospheric and Environmental Research (US)
  • Southern Illinois University Carbondale (US)
  • Agricultural Research Service (US)
  • Marshall Space Flight Center (US)
  • University of Oklahoma (US)
Corresponding author
Otkin, Jason A.
ORCID
Venue
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Published
2018-05
Volume
99
Issue
5
Pages
911-919
ISSN
  • 0003-0007 (ISSN-L)
  • 1520-0477
DOI
10.1175/bams-d-17-0149.1
OpenAlex
W2769501458
Cited by
689
References
32
Citations by year
2026: 111 · 2025: 110 · 2024: 109 · 2023: 99 · 2022: 87 · 2021: 84 · 2020: 45 · 2019: 30 · 2018: 14
FWCI
16.85
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (publishedVersion)
  • Lincoln (University of Nebraska) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Keywords
flash drought, drought intensification, drought definition, evaporative demand, drought duration, drought impacts, drought preparedness

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