Large Decadal Decline of the Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover

Abstract

The perennial ice area was drastically reduced to 38% of its climatological average in 2007 but recovered slightly in 2008, 2009, and 2010 with the areas being 10%, 24%, and 11% higher than in 2007, respectively. However, trends in extent and area remained strongly negative at −12.2% and −13.5% decade−1, respectively. The thick component of the perennial ice, called multiyear ice, as detected by satellite data during the winters of 1979–2011 was studied, and results reveal that the multiyear ice extent and area are declining at an even more rapid rate of −15.1% and −17.2% decade−1, respectively, with a record low value in 2008 followed by higher values in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Such a high rate in the decline of the thick component of the Arctic ice cover means a reduction in the average ice thickness and an even more vulnerable perennial ice cover. The decline of the multiyear ice area from 2007 to 2008 was not as strong as that of the perennial ice area from 2006 to 2007, suggesting a strong role of second-year ice melt in the latter. The sea ice cover is shown to be strongly correlated with surface temperature, which is increasing at about 3 times the global average in the Arctic but appears weakly correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which controls the atmospheric circulation in the region. An 8–9-yr cycle is apparent in the multiyear ice record, which could explain, in part, the slight recovery in the last 3 yr.