The DOI matches its Crossref record; 30 of the 30 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free?
Abstract
The observed rapid loss of thick multiyear sea ice over the last 7 years and the September 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reduction of 49% relative to the 1979–2000 climatology are inconsistent with projections of a nearly sea ice‐free summer Arctic from model estimates of 2070 and beyond made just a few years ago. Three recent approaches to predictions in the scientific literature are as follows: (1) extrapolation of sea ice volume data, (2) assuming several more rapid loss events such as 2007 and 2012, and (3) climate model projections. Time horizons for a nearly sea ice‐free summer for these three approaches are roughly 2020 or earlier, 2030 ± 10 years, and 2040 or later. Loss estimates from models are based on a subset of the most rapid ensemble members. It is not possible to clearly choose one approach over another as this depends on the relative weights given to data versus models. Observations and citations support the conclusion that most global climate model results in the CMIP5 archive are too conservative in their sea ice projections. Recent data and expert opinion should be considered in addition to model results to advance the very likely timing for future sea ice loss to the first half of the 21st century, with a possibility of major loss within a decade or two.
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Citations
Cites
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., et al. (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08823 · Cited by 6,467
Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations
Stroeve, J. C., Kattsov, V., Barrett, A., Serreze, M., Pavlova, T., Holland, M., & Meier, W. N. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2012gl052676 · Cited by 1,064
Large Decadal Decline of the Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover
Comiso, J. C. (2012) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00113.1 · Cited by 810
CryoSat‐2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
Laxon, S. W., Giles, K. A., Ridout, A. L., Wingham, D. J., Willatt, R., Cullen, R., Kwok, R., Schweiger, A., Zhang, J., Haas, C., et al. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50193 · Cited by 793
Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice
Holland, M. M., Bitz, C. M., & Tremblay, B. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl028024 · Cited by 707
A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?
Wang, M., & Overland, J. E. (2009) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2009gl037820 · Cited by 699
Self-citationUncertainty in modeled Arctic sea ice volume
Schweiger, A., Lindsay, R., Zhang, J., Steele, M., Stern, H., & Kwok, R. (2011) · Journal of Geophysical Research · doi:10.1029/2011jc007084 · Cited by 692
Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?
Brysse, K., Oreskes, N., O’Reilly, J., & Oppenheimer, M. (2013) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008 · Cited by 433
Spring snow cover extent reductions in the 2008–2012 period exceeding climate model projections
Derksen, C., & Brown, R. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2012gl053387 · Cited by 428
A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years: An update from CMIP5 models
Wang, M., & Overland, J. E. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2012gl052868 · Cited by 422
Self-citation
Cited by
Local Arctic Air Pollution: A Neglected but Serious Problem
Schmale, J., Arnold, S. R., Law, K. S., Thorp, T., Anenberg, S., Simpson, W. R., Mao, J., & Pratt, K. A. (2018) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1029/2018ef000952 · Cited by 221
“Changes in local sources are expected due to sea ice loss that is progressing rapidly as the Arctic warms, and by 2050 the Arctic could be nearly sea ice free in summer (Overland & Wang, 2013).”
BackgroundArctic air pollution: Challenges and opportunities for the next decade
Arnold, S. R., Law, K. S., Brock, C. A., Thomas, J. L., Starkweather, S. M., von Salzen, K., Stohl, A., Sharma, S., Lund, M. T., Flanner, M. G., et al. (2016) · Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene · doi:10.12952/journal.elementa.000104 · Cited by 131
Cirrus cloud seeding: a climate engineering mechanism with reduced side effects?
Storelvmo, T., Boos, W. R., & Herger, N. (2014) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0116 · Cited by 57
Gunsch, M. J., Kirpes, R. M., Kolesar, K. R., Barrett, T. E., China, S., Sheesley, R. J., Laskin, A., Wiedensohler, A., Tuch, T., & Pratt, K. A. (2017) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-17-10879-2017 · Cited by 60
Kolesar, K. R., Cellini, J., Peterson, P. K., Jefferson, A., Tuch, T., Birmili, W., Wiedensohler, A., & Pratt, K. A. (2017) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.12.019 · Cited by 57
Metadata
- Authors
- Overland, J. E., & Wang, M.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2013-05-21
- Volume
- 40
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 2097-2101
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1867506197
- Cited by
- 554
- References
- 30
- FWCI
- 34.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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