The DOI matches its Crossref record; 34 of the 34 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Analysis of Permafrost Thermal Dynamics and Response to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models
Open accessAbstract
The authors analyze global climate model predictions of soil temperature [from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database] to assess the models’ representation of current-climate soil thermal dynamics and their predictions of permafrost thaw during the twenty-first century. The authors compare the models’ predictions with observations of active layer thickness, air temperature, and soil temperature and with theoretically expected relationships between active layer thickness and air temperature annual mean- and seasonal-cycle amplitude. Models show a wide range of current permafrost areas, active layer statistics (cumulative distributions, correlations with mean annual air temperature, and amplitude of seasonal air temperature cycle), and ability to accurately model the coupling between soil and air temperatures at high latitudes. Many of the between-model differences can be traced to differences in the coupling between either near-surface air and shallow soil temperatures or shallow and deeper (1 m) soil temperatures, which in turn reflect differences in snow physics and soil hydrology. The models are compared with observational datasets to benchmark several aspects of the permafrost-relevant physics of the models. The CMIP5 models following multiple representative concentration pathways (RCP) show a wide range of predictions for permafrost loss: 2%–66% for RCP2.6, 15%–87% for RCP4.5, and 30%–99% for RCP8.5. Normalizing the amount of permafrost loss by the amount of high-latitude warming in the RCP4.5 scenario, the models predict an absolute loss of 1.6 ± 0.7 million km 2 permafrost per 1°C high-latitude warming, or a fractional loss of 6%–29% °C−1.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Mitchell, T. D., & Jones, P. D. (2005) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.1181 · Cited by 3,822
Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region
Tarnocai, C., Canadell, J. G., Schuur, E. A. G., Kuhry, P., Mazhitova, G., & Zimov, S. (2009) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2008gb003327 · Cited by 2,502
A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere‐biosphere system
Krinner, G., Viovy, N., de Noblet‐Ducoudré, N., Ogée, J., Polcher, J., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., & Prentice, I. C. (2005) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2003gb002199 · Cited by 2,496
Dunne, J. P., John, J. G., Adcroft, A. J., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R. W., Shevliakova, E., Stouffer, R. J., Cooke, W., Dunne, K. A., Harrison, M. J., et al. (2012) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00560.1 · Cited by 1,349
Lawrence, D. M., Oleson, K. W., Flanner, M. G., Thornton, P. E., Swenson, S. C., Lawrence, P. J., Zeng, X., Yang, Z.-L., Levis, S., Sakaguchi, K., et al. (2011) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2011ms00045 · Cited by 1,302
Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models
Holland, M. M., & Bitz, C. M. (2003) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0332-6 · Cited by 1,230
Class—A Canadian land surface scheme for GCMS. I. Soil model
Verseghy, D. L. (1991) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.3370110202 · Cited by 938
The impact of new land surface physics on the GCM simulation of climate and climate sensitivity
Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Bunton, C. B., Essery, R. L. H., Rowntree, P. R., & Smith, J. (1999) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s003820050276 · Cited by 935
Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming
Koven, C. D., Ringeval, B., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Cadule, P., Khvorostyanov, D., Krinner, G., & Tarnocai, C. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1103910108 · Cited by 912
Self-citationYUKIMOTO, S., ADACHI, Y., HOSAKA, M., SAKAMI, T., YOSHIMURA, H., HIRABARA, M., TANAKA, T. Y., SHINDO, E., TSUJINO, H., DEUSHI, M., et al. (2012) · Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II · doi:10.2151/jmsj.2012-a02 · Cited by 808
Cited by
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abn7950 · Cited by 1,931
McGuire, A. D., Lawrence, D. M., Koven, C., Clein, J. S., Burke, E., Chen, G., Jafarov, E., MacDougall, A. H., Marchenko, S., Nicolsky, D., et al. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1719903115 · Cited by 553
Self-citationDivergent effects of climate change on future groundwater availability in key mid-latitude aquifers
Wu, W.-Y., Lo, M.-H., Wada, Y., Famiglietti, J. S., Reager, J. T., Yeh, P. J.-F., Ducharne, A., & Yang, Z.-L. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-17581-y · Cited by 404
van den Hurk, B., Kim, H., Krinner, G., Seneviratne, S. I., Derksen, C., Oki, T., Douville, H., Colin, J., Ducharne, A., Cheruy, F., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016 · Cited by 284
Metadata
- Authors
- Koven, C. D., Riley, W. J., & Stern, A.
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2013-03-15
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1877-1900
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W2074738924
- Cited by
- 447
- References
- 34
- FWCI
- 12.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Analysis of Permafrost Thermal Dynamics and Response to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00228.1
- The paper
- Koven, C. D., Riley, W. J., & Stern, A. (2013). Analysis of Permafrost Thermal Dynamics and Response to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00228.1
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
