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Global and Regional Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the CMIP5 Models

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Camargo, Suzana J.·2013·Journal of Climate

Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) activity is analyzed in 14 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The global TC activity in the historical runs is compared with observations. The simulation of TC activity in the CMIP5 models is not as good as in higher-resolution simulations. The CMIP5 global TC frequency is much lower than observed, and there is significant deficiency in the geographical patterns of TC tracks and formation. Although all of the models underestimate the global frequency of TCs, the models present a wide range of global TC frequency. The models with the highest horizontal resolution have the highest level of global TC activity, though resolution is not the only factor that determines model TC activity. A cold SST bias could potentially contribute to the low number of TCs in the models. The models show no consensus regarding the difference of TC activity in two warming scenarios [representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5] and the historical simulation. The author examined in more detail North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific TC activity in a subset of models and found no robust changes across models in TC frequency. Therefore, there is no robust signal across the CMIP5 models in global and regional TC changes in activity for future scenarios. The future changes in various large-scale environmental fields associated with TC activity were also examined globally: genesis potential index, potential intensity, vertical wind shear, and sea level pressure. The multimodel mean changes of these variables in the CMIP5 models are consistent with the changes obtained in the CMIP3 models.

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Metadata

Authors
Camargo, S. J.
Venue
Journal of Climate
Published
2013-12-02
Volume
26
Issue
24
Pages
9880-9902
ISSN
  • 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
  • 1520-0442
OpenAlex
W1995618165
Cited by
362
References
104
FWCI
14.28
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
bronze

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Global and Regional Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the CMIP5 Models. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00549.1
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Camargo, S. J. (2013). Global and Regional Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the CMIP5 Models. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00549.1

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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

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