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Avoiding Inhomogeneity in Percentile-Based Indices of Temperature Extremes
Open accessAbstract
Using a Monte Carlo simulation, it is demonstrated that percentile-based temperature indices computed for climate change detection and monitoring may contain artificial discontinuities at the beginning and end of the period that is used for calculating the percentiles (base period). This would make these exceedance frequency time series unsuitable for monitoring and detecting climate change. The problem occurs because the threshold calculated in the base period is affected by sampling error. On average, this error leads to overestimated exceedance rates outside the base period. A bootstrap resampling procedure is proposed to estimate exceedance frequencies during the base period. The procedure effectively removes the inhomogeneity.
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Cited by
Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation
Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Haylock, M., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Rahimzadeh, F., et al. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006290 · Cited by 4,492
Self-citationA hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves
Hobday, A. J., Alexander, L. V., Perkins, S. E., Smale, D. A., Straub, S. C., Oliver, E. C. J., Benthuysen, J. A., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Feng, M., et al. (2016) · Progress in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014 · Cited by 2,377
Sillmann, J., Kharin, V. V., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., & Bronaugh, D. (2013) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/jgrd.50203 · Cited by 1,461
Self-citationTrends in Intense Precipitation in the Climate Record
Groisman, P. Y., Knight, R. W., Easterling, D. R., Karl, T. R., Hegerl, G. C., & Razuvaev, V. N. (2005) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3339.1 · Cited by 1,334
Self-citationGlobal changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension
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Metadata
- Authors
- Zhang, X., Hegerl, G., Zwiers, F. W., & Kenyon, J.
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2005-06-01
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1641-1651
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W1963796430
- Cited by
- 504
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 9.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- Zhang, X., Hegerl, G., Zwiers, F. W., & Kenyon, J. (2005). Avoiding Inhomogeneity in Percentile-Based Indices of Temperature Extremes. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3366.1
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