Trends in Intense Precipitation in the Climate Record
Open accessAbstract
Observed changes in intense precipitation (e.g., the frequency of very heavy precipitation or the upper 0.3% of daily precipitation events) have been analyzed for over half of the land area of the globe. These changes have been linked to changes in intense precipitation for three transient climate model simulations, all with greenhouse gas concentrations increasing during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and doubling in the later part of the twenty-first century. It was found that both the empirical evidence from the period of instrumental observations and model projections of a greenhouse-enriched atmosphere indicate an increasing probability of intense precipitation events for many extratropical regions including the United States. Although there can be ambiguity as to the impact of more frequent heavy precipitation events, the thresholds of the definitions of these events were raised here, such that they are likely to be disruptive. Unfortunately, reliable assertions of very heavy and extreme precipitation changes are possible only for regions with dense networks due to the small radius of correlation for many intense precipitation events.
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Over the available record, there are regions with both increasing and decreasing trends in precipitation extremes.
“Over the available record, there are regions with both increasing and decreasing trends in precipitation extremes [1, 28], as might be expected given large internal variability [25]”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [28]
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- Authors
- Groisman, P. Y., Knight, R. W., Easterling, D. R., Karl, T. R., Hegerl, G. C., & Razuvaev, V. N.
- Affiliations
- University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (US)
- University of North Carolina at Asheville (US)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Duke University (US)
- All Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological information World Data Center (RU)
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2005-05-01
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 1326-1350
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W2102588958
- Cited by
- 1,334
- References
- 86
- Citations by year
- 2026: 20 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 37 · 2023: 59 · 2022: 51 · 2021: 79 · 2020: 98 · 2019: 79 · 2018: 88 · 2017: 87 · 2016: 84 · 2015: 99 · 2014: 75 · 2013: 77 · 2012: 70
- FWCI
- 37.34
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Climate (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- intense precipitation, heavy rainfall, precipitation frequency, global warming, climate change projections, United States
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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