The DOI matches its Crossref record; 64 of the 64 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
A Spatial Model of Internal Displacement and Forced Migration
Abstract
This article develops a spatial model of internal and external forced migration. We propose a model reminiscent of Hotelling’s spatial model in economics and Schelling’s model of segregation. Conflict is modeled as a shock that hits a country at certain location and generates displacement of people located near the shock’s location. Some displaced people cross a border, thus becoming refugees, while others remain as Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). The model delivers predictions about how the fractions of a country’s population that become refugees and IDPs ought to be related with the intensity of the shock, country size, terrain ruggedness and the degree of geographical proximity of the country with respect to the rest of the world. The predictions of the model are then tested against real data using a panel of 161 countries covering the period 1995-2016. The empirical evidence is mostly in line with the predictions of the model.
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“A common denominator of most conflicts, especially those that generate high casualty figures, is widespread forced migration (154-157).”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [157]
Citations
Cites
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Buhaug, H., & Gates, S. (2002) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343302039004003 · Cited by 433
Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict
Buhaug, H., Gates, S., & Lujala, P. (2009) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002709336457 · Cited by 425
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Sorted by citations
Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change
Buhaug, H., & von Uexkull, N. (2021) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708 · Cited by 187
“A common denominator of most conflicts, especially those that generate high casualty figures, is widespread forced migration (154–157).”
BackgroundThe impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
Vesco, P., Baliki, G., Brück, T., Döring, S., Eriksson, A., Fjelde, H., Guha‐Sapir, D., Hall, J., Knutsen, C. H., Leis, M., et al. (2024) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106806 · Cited by 145
Disease burden among Ukrainians forcibly displaced by the 2022 Russian invasion
Pandey, A., Wells, C. R., Stadnytskyi, V., Moghadas, S. M., MARATHE, M. V., Sah, P., Crystal, W., Ancel, L. W., Singer, B. H., Nesterova, O., et al. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2215424120 · Cited by 48
Drought and social conflict in rural Zimbabwe: Does the burden fall on women and girls?
Chigusiwa, L., Kembo, G., & Kairiza, T. (2022) · Review of Development Economics · doi:10.1111/rode.12944 · Cited by 39
The Causes and Consequences of Refugee Flows: A Contemporary Reanalysis
Shaver, A., Krick, B., BLANCAFLOR, J., LIU, X., SAMARA, G., KU, S. Y., HU, S., ANGELO, J., CARREON, M., LIM, T., et al. (2024) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055424000285 · Cited by 20
Hagen‐Zanker, J., Rubio, M. G., & Erdal, M. B. (2024) · Journal of Refugee Studies · doi:10.1093/jrs/feae021 · Cited by 19
Ospanov, M., Kalyuzhnova, Y., Khlystova, O., & Crowley‐Vigneau, A. (2025) · Defence and Peace Economics · doi:10.1080/10242694.2025.2513072 · Cited by 7
Tsavdaroglou, C., & Kaïka, M. (2023) · Antipode · doi:10.1111/anti.12971 · Cited by 7
Do UN peace operations help forcibly displaced people?
Costalli, S., di Salvatore, J., & Ruggeri, A. (2023) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/00223433231186448 · Cited by 4
Dynamics of internal displacement and conflict in Somalia
Blair, C. (2026) · Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies · doi:10.1080/1369183x.2025.2595818 · Cited by 5
Kosyakova, Y., Kogan, I., & van Tubergen, F. (2025) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/00223433251317838 · Cited by 5
Armed Conflict and Pregnancy Termination: Evidence from Burkina Faso
Luetke, M., Grace, K., Yu, J., & Gunther, M. (2024) · Spatial Demography · doi:10.1007/s40980-024-00129-9 · Cited by 2
Measuring the Impact of Armed Conflict on Population Health: A Guide for Researchers
Luetke, M., Svallfors, S., & Boyle, E. H. (2026) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/padr.70047 · Cited by 2
Amit, K. (2026) · Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies · doi:10.1080/15562948.2026.2665110 · Cited by 1
Корпоративната социална отговорност в търговията в контекста на принудително преместване на хора
Петрова, М. (2023) · Research Papers · doi:10.37075/rp.2023.2.09
How climate volatility influences human rights
Timbs, N., & Mitchell, S. M. (2024) · Journal of Human Rights · doi:10.1080/14754835.2024.2416110 · Cited by 1
Anticipating humanitarian emergencies with a high risk of conflict-induced displacement
Rost, N., & Ronco, M. (2025) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.04.006
We Have Lost Everything: Banditry and Internal Displacement in Northern Nigeria
Ojewale, O. S. (2025) · Society · doi:10.1007/s12115-025-01131-7
Reading spatial inequality in Gaza through UNRWA reports: Displacement and urban fragmentation
Soboh, A., & Aksoy, B. S. E. (2026) · Journal of Design for Resilience in Architecture and Planning · doi:10.47818/drarch.2026.v7i2213
Metadata
- Authors
- Echevarria-Coco, J., & Gardeazabal, J.
- Affiliations
- University of the Basque Country (ES)
- The University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, Bilbao, Spain
- Venue
- Journal of Conflict Resolution
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2020-09-25
- Volume
- 65
- Issue
- 2-3
- Pages
- 591-618
- ISSN
- 0022-0027 (ISSN-L)
- 1552-8766
- OpenAlex
- W3088024484
- Cited by
- 19
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 1
- FWCI
- 2.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Conflict Resolution (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Secretaría de Estado de Investigación, Desarrollo e Innovación (Mineco-FEDER ECO2015-64467-R)
- Eusko Jaurlaritza (IT783-13)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration, Refugees, and Integration
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Keywords
- internal displacement, forced migration, refugees, internally displaced persons, spatial modeling, border crossing, terrain ruggedness, country size, geographic proximity, Schelling segregation model, Hotelling model
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