How soil erosion model conceptualization affects soil loss projections under climate change
Abstract
Climate models project increased extreme precipitation for the coming decades, which may lead to higher soil erosion in many locations worldwide. Different soil erosion model concepts are used to assess the impact of climate change on soil erosion at large spatial scales, including models forced by precipitation and by runoff. However, there is little knowledge of the implications of soil erosion model conceptualization on projected soil erosion rates under climate change. Here, we assess the impact of climate change with the three most widely used soil erosion model concepts: a model forced by precipitation (RUSLE); a model forced by runoff (MUSLE); and a model forced by precipitation and runoff (MMF). We applied the models to two contrasting Mediterranean catchments (south-east Spain), where climate change is projected to decrease the annual precipitation sum and increase extreme precipitation, based on the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Depending on the model, soil erosion is projected to decrease (RUSLE) or increase (MUSLE and MMF) in the study area. Although it is difficult to validate future model projections, the differences between the model projections are, inherently, a result of their model conceptualization: a decrease in soil loss due to a decrease in the annual precipitation sum (RUSLE); and an increase in soil loss due to an increase in extreme precipitation and, consequently, increased runoff (MUSLE). An intermediate result is obtained with MMF, in which a pr…
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The increasing intensity of rainfall expected from climate change will lead to increased erosion and nutrient loss from croplands unless SLM practices are widely implemented.
“The increasing intensity of rainfall expected from climate change will lead to increased erosion and nutrient loss from croplands unless SLM practices are widely implemented (86).”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [86]
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Arneth, A., Olsson, L., Cowie, A., Erb, K.-H., Hurlbert, M., Kurz, W. A., Mirzabaev, A., & Rounsevell, M. D. A. (2021) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012320-054809 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
“The increasing intensity of rainfall expected from climate change will lead to increased erosion and nutrient loss from croplands unless SLM practices are widely implemented (86).”
Background
- Authors
- Eekhout, J. P., & De Vente, J.
- Affiliations
- Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES)
- CEBAS-CSIC, Spain
- Corresponding author
- Eekhout, Joris PC
- ORCID
- Eekhout, Joris PC
- Venue
- Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2019-09-17
- Volume
- 44
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 212-232
- ISSN
- 0309-1333 (ISSN-L)
- 1477-0296
- OpenAlex
- W4246178298
- Cited by
- 56
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 4
- FWCI
- 3.97
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (201740I024)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Soil erosion and sediment transport
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Hydrology and Sediment Transport Processes
- Keywords
- soil erosion, climate change impacts, RUSLE, MUSLE, heavy rainfall, runoff, Mediterranean catchments, RCP8.5
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