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Cited by 43Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual OffendingCrime Patterns and InterventionsLegal and Social Justice Studies

A meta-analysis of trends in general, sexual, and violent recidivism among youth with histories of sex offending

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Lussier, Patrick, McCuish, Evan, Chouinard Thivierge, Stéphanie, Frechette, Julien·2024·Trauma, Violence, & Abuse
DOI 10.1177/15248380221137653PMC PMC10666491
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Abstract

Recent research suggests that sexual recidivism rates have been declining, which contrasts with observations regarding general recidivism rates as well as perceptions of sexual reoffending risk. If sexual recidivism rates are in decline, it raises fundamental policy questions about the youth justice system’s tendency to operate on the assumption that juvenile sexual offending is a risk marker for sexual reoffending in adulthood. A systematic review and a quantitative meta-analysis were conducted to determine the general, violent, and sexual recidivism rates of adolescent perpetrators of sexual offenses with data stemming from studies published worldwide between 1940 and 2019. A total of 158 empirical studies including 30,396 adolescent perpetrators of sexual offenses were retrieved to examine estimates of general, violent, and sexual recidivism. The study findings highlight that the risk of general recidivism (weighted pooled mean = .44) is substantially higher than violent (weighted pooled mean = .18) and sexual recidivism (weighted pooled mean = .08). The study did not observe convincing evidence that sexual recidivism rates for adolescent perpetrators are declining, but rather that these rates have been consistently low over the years. There was strong evidence that multiple study characteristics moderate the recidivism rates observed. Given the low weighted pooled sexual recidivism rate reported in the study, the use of adult-like strategies to increase public safety and prevent sexual recidivism seems misguided, not only because sexual recidivism is unlikely, but also because such strategies are not developed to address general criminogenic needs that may explain general recidivism rates observed.

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  • Variable selection was grounded in established scholarship on sexual offending, online harassment, cyber-enabled coercion, and stalking risk factors.

    “Variable selection was grounded in established scholarship on sexual offending, online harassment, cyber-enabled coercion, and stalking risk factors (e.g., DeKeseredy et al., 2019; Lussier et al., 2024; Patchin & Hinduja, 2020; Sparks, 2021).”

    From Constructing Offender Typologies From Judicial Data: A Clustering Analysis of Sextortion Cases (2026) · cites this paper as Lussier et al., 2024

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Authors
Lussier, P., McCuish, E., Chouinard Thivierge, S., & Frechette, J.
Affiliations
  • Université Laval (CA)
  • Simon Fraser University (CA)
  • Université Laval, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada
Corresponding author
Lussier, Patrick
ORCID
Venue
Trauma, Violence, & Abuse
Publisher
SAGE Publications
Published
2023-01-03
Volume
25
Issue
1
Pages
54-72
ISSN
  • 1524-8380 (ISSN-L)
  • 1552-8324
DOI
10.1177/15248380221137653
PMC
PMC10666491
OpenAlex
W4313453734
Cited by
43
References
3
Citations by year
2026: 14 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 2
FWCI
2.18
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Trauma Violence & Abuse (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
  • Social Sciences › Law › Legal and Social Justice Studies
Keywords
sexual recidivism, violent recidivism, general recidivism, juvenile offenders, youth justice system, recidivism risk, recidivism prevention, public safety
MeSH terms
Recidivism, Adolescent, Adult, Aggression, Humans, Recurrence, Sexual Behavior, Sex Offenses, Risk Assessment, Criminals

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