The DOI matches its Crossref record; 20 of the 20 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Bettor Misperceptions in the NBA: The Overbetting of Large Favorites and the “Hot Hand”
Abstract
Systematic bettor misperceptions are found in the NBA point spread gambling market for the seasons of 1995-1996 to 2001-2002. Evidence of the overbetting of favorites is found, with a strategy of betting big underdogs rejecting the null of a fair bet. Betting big home underdogs not only rejects a fair bet but is also shown to reject the null of no profitability. In addition, betting against winning streaks, as first suggested in the “hot-hand” article of Camerer and later tested by Brown and Sauer, is also shown to be profitable.
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Cites
Filders, R. (1992) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/0169-2070(92)90130-2 · Cited by 16,165
Journal of Economic Literature
Durlauf, S. N. (2019) · AEA Papers and Proceedings · doi:10.1257/pandp.109.633 · Cited by 7,665
(2010) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.100.1.i · Cited by 4,443
Market Efficiency and the Favorite-Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market
Woodland, L. M., & Woodland, B. M. (1994) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1994.tb04429.x · Cited by 207
Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market
GANDAR, J., ZUBER, R., O'BRIEN, T., & RUSSO, B. (1988) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb02617.x · Cited by 181
The degree of inefficiency in the football betting market Statistical tests
Golec, J. (1991) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/0304-405x(91)90034-h · Cited by 139
Sauer, R. D. O., Brajer, V., Ferris, S. P., & Marr, M. W. (1988) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261532 · Cited by 112
Does the basketball market believe in the hot hand? Comment
Sauer, R. D., & Brown, W. O. (1993) · American Economic Review · Cited by 83
Woodland, L. M., & Woodland, B. M. (2001) · Southern Economic Journal · doi:10.1002/j.2325-8012.2001.tb00385.x · Cited by 81
A generalized model for testing the home and favorite team advantage in point spread markets
Dare, W. H., & MacDonald, S. S. (1996) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/0304-405x(95)00848-9 · Cited by 73
Winning Strategies for Wagering on National Football League Games
Vergin, R. C., & Scriabin, M. (1978) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.24.8.809 · Cited by 72
Market Efficiency and a Profitable Betting Rule
Paul, R. J., & Weinbach, A. P. (2002) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002502003003003 · Cited by 66
Self-citationGandar, J. M., Zuber, R. A., Johnson, R. S., & Dare, W. H. (2002) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036840110095427 · Cited by 54
Testing efficiency in gambling markets
Even, W. E., & Noble, N. R. (1992) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036849200000106 · Cited by 49
The Profitability of Wagering on NFL Games
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Fair bets and profitability in college football gambling
Paul, R. J., Weinbach, A. P., & Weinbach, J. (2003) · Journal of Economics and Finance · doi:10.1007/bf02827221 · Cited by 41
Self-citationLearning and Efficiency in a Gambling Market
Dana, J. D., & Knetter, M. M. (1994) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.40.10.1317 · Cited by 29
Market efficiency and NCAA college basketball gambling
Paul, R., & Weinbach, A. (2005) · Journal of Economics and Finance · doi:10.1007/bf02761584 · Cited by 18
Self-citation(1989) · CaltechAUTHORS (California Institute of Technology)
(1998) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- Camerer, C., 1989, American Economic Review, 79, 1257
- Roxborough, R., 1998, Sports book management: A guide for the legal bookmaker
- 10.2307/1061582 · DOI
Cited by
Dobson, S., & Goddard, J. A. (2001) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511493225 · Cited by 532
Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers
Miller, J. B., & Sanjurjo, A. (2018) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta14943 · Cited by 252
Stekler, H. O., Sendor, D., & Verlander, R. (2010) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.01.003 · Cited by 100
A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence that Belief in the Hot Hand is JustifiedPreprint
Miller, J. B., & Sanjurjo, A. (2014) · OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/pj79r · Cited by 60
The Impact of Visiting Team Travel on Game Outcome and Biases in NFL Betting Markets
Nichols, M. W. (2012) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002512440580 · Cited by 41
Metadata
- Authors
- Paul, R. J., & Weinbach, A. P.
- Affiliations
- St. Bonaventure University (US)
- Armstrong Atlantic State University (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Sports Economics
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2005-11
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 390-400
- ISSN
- 1527-0025 (ISSN-L)
- 1552-7794
- OpenAlex
- W2148822705
- Semantic Scholar
- 1acac5c92157dbc08ca3ca2a51427ca98adaeddb
- Cited by
- 70
- References
- 20
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 3 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 2.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license (tdm)
- Locations
- Journal of Sports Economics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Keywords
- sports betting, home advantage, winning streaks, hot hand fallacy, market efficiency
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
