The DOI matches its Crossref record; 2 of the 2 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Dealing With Randomness in Match Outcomes: How to Rethink Performance Evaluation in European Club Football Using Expected Goals
Abstract
In European club football, decision makers often rely on recent match outcomes when evaluating team performance, even though short-term results are heavily influenced by randomness. This can lead to systematic misjudgments. In this article, we propose a complementary approach for performance evaluation. We build upon the concept of expected goals based on quantified scoring chances and develop a chart that visualizes situations in which a team’s true performance likely deviates from the performance indicated by match outcomes. This should prevent clubs from making flawed decisions when match outcomes are misleading due to the influence of random forces.
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Cites
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124 · Cited by 28,810
Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation
Baron, J., & Hershey, J. C. (1988) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.54.4.569 · Cited by 873
Research works printed but not linked: 14
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Metadata
- Authors
- Brechot, M., & Flepp, R.
- Affiliations
- University of Zurich (CH)
- Corresponding author
- Flepp, Raphael
- ORCID
- Flepp, Raphael
- Venue
- Journal of Sports Economics
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2020-01-22
- Volume
- 21
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 335-362
- ISSN
- 1527-0025 (ISSN-L)
- 1552-7794
- OpenAlex
- W3002308282
- Cited by
- 89
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 21 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 4
- FWCI
- 8.29
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Sports Economics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Orthopedics and Sports Medicine › Sports Performance and Training
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Developmental and Educational Psychology › Sport Psychology and Performance
- Keywords
- expected goals, team performance evaluation, decision-making in sport
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- Brechot, M., & Flepp, R. (2020). Dealing With Randomness in Match Outcomes: How to Rethink Performance Evaluation in European Club Football Using Expected Goals. Journal of Sports Economics. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002519897962
