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Causal Inference and Observational Research: The Utility of Twins
Open accessAbstract
Valid causal inference is central to progress in theoretical and applied psychology. Although the randomized experiment is widely considered the gold standard for determining whether a given exposure increases the likelihood of some specified outcome, experiments are not always feasible and in some cases can result in biased estimates of causal effects. Alternatively, standard observational approaches are limited by the possibility of confounding, reverse causation, and the nonrandom distribution of exposure (i.e., selection). We describe the counterfactual model of causation and apply it to the challenges of causal inference in observational research, with a particular focus on aging. We argue that the study of twin pairs discordant on exposure, and in particular discordant monozygotic twins, provides a useful analog to the idealized counterfactual design. A review of discordant-twin studies in aging reveals that they are consistent with, but do not unambiguously establish, a causal effect of lifestyle factors on important late-life outcomes. Nonetheless, the existing studies are few in number and have clear limitations that have not always been considered in interpreting their results. It is concluded that twin researchers could make greater use of the discordant-twin design as one approach to strengthen causal inferences in observational research.
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“Monozygotic twins share both a common genotype and a similar rearing environment.”
From Life Events and Personality Trait Change. (2018) · cites this paper as McGue, Osler, & Christensen, 2010
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“This approach adjusted for confounding from all factors shared across individuals initiating analgesic treatment with opioids and with NSAIDs (eg, indications for pain treatment)”
From Association of opioid prescription initiation during adolescence and young adulthood with subsequent substance-related morbidity (2020) · cites this paper as [35]
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Metadata
- Authors
- McGue, M., Osler, M., & Christensen, K.
- Affiliations
- University of Minnesota (US)
- University of Southern Denmark (DK)
- Corresponding author
- McGue, Matt
- Venue
- Perspectives on Psychological Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2010-09
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 546-556
- ISSN
- 1745-6916 (ISSN-L)
- 1745-6924
- PMC
- PMC3094752
- OpenAlex
- W2024702358
- Cited by
- 529
- References
- 94
- Citations by year
- 2026: 34 · 2025: 40 · 2024: 40 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 40 · 2021: 47 · 2020: 36 · 2019: 37 · 2018: 23 · 2017: 32 · 2016: 42 · 2015: 25 · 2014: 28 · 2013: 23 · 2012: 25
- FWCI
- 2.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Perspectives on Psychological Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- University of Southern Denmark Research Portal (University of Southern Denmark) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (R01AA009367, R37AA009367)
- National Institute on Aging (P01AG008761)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History and Philosophy of Science › Philosophy of Biology and Scientific Explanation
- Keywords
- causal inference, observational studies, discordant twins, monozygotic twins, aging, confounding, reverse causality, selection bias, lifestyle factors, causal effects
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