Effects of high-density lipoprotein targeting treatments on cardiovascular outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Open accessAbstract
Background: The effects of increasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol on cardiovascular outcomes remain uncertain. Design: We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the effects of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol modifiers (niacin, fibrates and cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitors) on cardiovascular outcomes. Methods: Thirty-one randomized controlled trials (154,601 patients) with a follow-up of 6 months or more and a sample size of 100 or more patients were selected using MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL database (inception January 2018). Results: High-density lipoprotein cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant effect on cardiovascular mortality in terms of relative risk (RR) (RR 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89–1.00, P = 0.05, I 2 = 13%) or absolute risk (risk difference −0.0001, 95% CI −0.0014, 0.0011, P = 0.84, I 2 = 28%). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol modifiers reduced the RR of myocardial infarction (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82–0.93, P < 0.001, I 2 = 37%). This significant effect was derived by the use of fibrates (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.73–0.87, P < 0.001, I 2 = 22%) and meta-regression analysis showed that this benefit was consistent with an absolute reduction in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. High-density lipoprotein cholesterol modifiers had no effect on stroke (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.93–1.09, P = 0.94, I 2 = 25%) or all-cause mortality (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97–1.08, P = 0.48, I 2 = 49%). Meta-regression analyses failed to demonstrate a significant association of pharmacologically increased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with key endpoints. In studies with background statin therapy, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant impact on cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke or all-cause mortality ( P > 0.05). Conclusion: The use of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol modifying treatments had no significant effect on cardiovascular mortality, stroke or all-cause mortality. The beneficial effect on myocardial infarction was lost when drugs were used with statin therapy.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
In a meta-analysis of 31 randomized controlled trials and 154,601 patients, HDL cholesterol-modifying drugs did not significantly reduce cardiovascular mortality, stroke, or all-cause mortality. A modest reduction in myocardial infarction was seen with fibrates, but this benefit was linked to LDL cholesterol lowering and disappeared in trials with background statin therapy.
Key findings
- HDL cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant effect on cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.89–1.00, P = 0.05, I² = 13%) or all-cause mortality (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97–1.08, P = 0.48, I² = 49%).
- They reduced myocardial infarction overall (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82–0.93, P < 0.001, I² = 37%), with the effect derived from fibrates (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.73–0.87, P < 0.001, I² = 22%); absolute risk reduction was four MIs per 1000 patients (RD −0.004, 95% CI −0.006, −0.001, P = 0.02, I² = 52%).
- Stroke was unaffected (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.93–1.09, P = 0.94, I² = 25%). Meta-regression found no significant association between pharmacologically increased HDL cholesterol and key endpoints; the MI benefit with fibrates was consistent with LDL cholesterol reduction.
- In trials without background statin therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers reduced cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79–0.98, P = 0.02, I² = 31%) and MI (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71–0.85, P < 0.001, I² = 9%); in trials with background statin therapy, effects on cardiovascular mortality, MI, stroke, and all-cause mortality were not statistically significant (P > 0.05).
Methods
- Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing HDL cholesterol-targeting treatments (niacin, fibrates, CETP inhibitors) with control; inclusion required follow-up ≥6 months, sample size ≥100, and reporting of at least one clinical event.
- Searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL from inception to 15 January 2018; 31 RCTs (154,601 patients) were included, with mean age 58.4 ± 6.7 years, 78% men, mean baseline HDL cholesterol 42.7 ± 4.9 mg/dL, and mean follow-up 3.2 ± 1.6 years.
- Outcomes were pooled using DerSimonian and Laird random-effects models; dichotomous outcomes reported as risk ratio and risk difference, continuous variables as mean difference, with heterogeneity assessed by Cochrane Q and I², publication bias by funnel plot and Egger’s test, and subgroup/meta-regression analyses for background statin therapy and lipid changes.
Limitations
- The paper states that this was a pooled analysis of individual trials without access to individual patient data, that endpoint definitions and adjudication may have varied across trials, and that background therapies varied over time, especially with newer CETP inhibitor trials almost uniformly using background statin therapy.
- Evident from the text: lipid-parameter analyses showed very high heterogeneity (e.g., I² = 98% for HDL cholesterol and LDL cholesterol changes), and the meta-regression analyses are trial-level and cannot establish causality.
- The paper also notes that observational data on surrogate endpoints should be considered hypothesis-generating only, and that treatment benefit requires large, adequately powered outcome trials.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
0 of 5 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
There was a significant interaction between drug class and the effect of LDL cholesterol reduction on MI (Pinteraction=0.01).
“In the case of niacin (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.32–1.1, P = 0.06, R2 = 97%) and CETP inhibitors (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.10–2.63, P = 0.34, R2 = 5%) no significant benefit per unit decrease in LDL cholesterol was observed (Pinteraction = 0.01) (Figure 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
CETP inhibitors had no significant effect on myocardial infarction.
“neither CTEP inhibitors nor niacin had significant effects on MI.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
CETP inhibitors reduced triglycerides (MD −8.72, 95% CI −11.12, −6.32, P<0.001, I2=44%).
“HDL cholesterol modifiers were associated with a significant reduction in triglycerides (mg/dL) (MD −10.94, 95% CI −13.25, −8.62, P < 0.001, I2 = 79%), with maximum reduction provided by fibrates (MD −44.50, 95% CI −54.73, −34.26, P < 0.001, I2 = 40%), followed by niacin (MD −31.41, 95% CI, −49.38, −13.44, P < 0.001, I2 = 80%) and CETP inhibitors (MD −8.72, 95% CI, −11.12, −6.32, P < 0.001, I2 = 4”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Fibrates provided the maximum reduction in triglycerides (MD −44.50, 95% CI −54.73, −34.26, P<0.001, I2=40%).
“HDL cholesterol modifiers were associated with a significant reduction in triglycerides (mg/dL) (MD −10.94, 95% CI −13.25, −8.62, P < 0.001, I2 = 79%), with maximum reduction provided by fibrates (MD −44.50, 95% CI −54.73, −34.26, P < 0.001, I2 = 40%), followed by niacin (MD −31.41, 95% CI, −49.38, −13.44, P < 0.001, I2 = 80%) and CETP inhibitors (MD −8.72, 95% CI, −11.12, −6.32, P < 0.001, I2 = 4”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Meta-regression did not show a significant association between the risk of stroke and absolute change in HDL cholesterol (slope 0.002, P=0.97; R2=0).
“Meta regression analysis did not show a significant association between the risk of stroke and absolute change in HDL cholesterol (slop: 0.002, P = 0.97; R2 = 0, Supplementary Figure 4).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Findingown data
In CETP inhibitor trials, no significant benefit per unit decrease in LDL cholesterol was observed for MI (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.10-2.63, P=0.34, R2=5%).
“In the case of niacin (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.32–1.1, P = 0.06, R2 = 97%) and CETP inhibitors (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.10–2.63, P = 0.34, R2 = 5%) no significant benefit per unit decrease in LDL cholesterol was observed (Pinteraction = 0.01) (Figure 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In studies with background statin therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant impact on cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.90-1.05, P=0.46, I2=0%).
“In studies with background statin therapy, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant impact on cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke or all-cause mortality (P > 0.05).”
- Also stated in: § All-cause mortality · plain
“Conversely, in studies in which statins were used as background therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant impact on cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.90–1.05, P = 0.46, I2 = 0%) or MI (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.88–1.01, P = 0.12, I2 = 21%) or stroke or all-cause mortality (Figure 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § All-cause mortality · plain
- Findingown data
Niacin increased HDL cholesterol (MD 7.65, 95% CI 4.36, 10.94, P<0.001, I2=68%).
“CETP inhibitors had the greatest impact on HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) (MD 56.30, 95% CI 24.92, 87.68, P < 0.001, I2 = 98%), followed by niacin (MD 7.65, 95% CI 4.36, 10.94, P < 0.001, I2 = 68%) and fibrates (MD 3.30, 95% CI 1.40, 5.21, P < 0.001, I2 = 98%, Supplementary Figure 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The reduction in MI risk with HDL cholesterol modifiers was achieved with fibrates only (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.73-0.87, P<0.001, I2=22%).
“This significant effect was derived by the use of fibrates (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.73–0.87, P < 0.001, I2 = 22%)”
- Also stated in: § Myocardial infarction · plain
“This risk reduction was achieved with fibrates only (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.73–0.87, P < 0.001, I2 = 22%), and neither CTEP inhibitors nor niacin had significant effects on MI.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Myocardial infarction · plain
- Findingown data
HDL cholesterol modifiers were associated with a significant reduction in triglycerides (MD −10.94, 95% CI −13.25, −8.62, P<0.001, I2=79%).
“HDL cholesterol modifiers were associated with a significant reduction in triglycerides (mg/dL) (MD −10.94, 95% CI −13.25, −8.62, P < 0.001, I2 = 79%), with maximum reduction provided by fibrates (MD −44.50, 95% CI −54.73, −34.26, P < 0.001, I2 = 40%), followed by niacin (MD −31.41, 95% CI, −49.38, −13.44, P < 0.001, I2 = 80%) and CETP inhibitors (MD −8.72, 95% CI, −11.12, −6.32, P < 0.001, I2 = 4”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In studies with background statin therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant impact on all-cause mortality.
“Conversely, in studies in which statins were used as background therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant impact on cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.90–1.05, P = 0.46, I2 = 0%) or MI (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.88–1.01, P = 0.12, I2 = 21%) or stroke or all-cause mortality (Figure 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In terms of absolute risk, the use of HDL cholesterol modifiers prevented four MIs per 1000 patients (RD −0.004, 95% CI −0.006, −0.001, P=0.02, I2=52%).
“In terms of absolute risk, the use of HDL cholesterol modifiers prevented four MIs per 1000 patients (RD −0.004. 95% CI −0.006, −0.001, P = 0.02, I2 = 52%).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In trials which did not use statins as background therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers had no effect on all-cause mortality.
“Subgroup analysis showed that in trials which did not use statins as background therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers were associated with a significant risk reduction in cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79–0.98, P = 0.02, I2 = 31%) and MI (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71–0.85, P < 0.001, I2 = 9%), while HDL cholesterol modifiers had no effect on stroke or all-cause mortality (Figure 4).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Meta-regression did not demonstrate a significant association between the risk of all-cause mortality and an absolute increase in HDL cholesterol (slope −0.046, P=0.26, R2=0.19).
“Meta-regression analysis did not demonstrate a significant association between the risk of all-cause mortality and an absolute increase in HDL cholesterol (slope −0.046, P = 0.26, R2 = 0.19, Supplementary Figure 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
HDL cholesterol modifiers had no effect on all-cause mortality (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.08, P=0.48, I2=49%).
“High-density lipoprotein cholesterol modifiers had no effect on stroke (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.93–1.09, P = 0.94, I2 = 25%) or all-cause mortality (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97–1.08, P = 0.48, I2 = 49%).”
- Also stated in: § All-cause mortality · plain
“HDL cholesterol modifiers did not reduce the relative risk of all-cause mortality compared to control (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97–1.08, P = 0.48, I2 = 49%, Supplementary Figure 8).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § All-cause mortality · plain
- Findingown data
Every 1 mmol (38.5 mg) reduction in LDL cholesterol generated a 39% relative risk reduction in MI in fibrates trials (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.39-0.94, P=0.03).
“However, every 1 mmol (38.5 mg) reduction in LDL cholesterol generated a 39% relative risk reduction in MI in fibrates trials (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.39–0.94, P = 0.03).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
HDL cholesterol modifiers had no effect on stroke (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.93-1.09, P=0.94, I2=25%).
“High-density lipoprotein cholesterol modifiers had no effect on stroke (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.93–1.09, P = 0.94, I2 = 25%)”
- Also stated in: § Stroke · plain
“The use of HDL cholesterol had a neutral effect on the relative risk of stroke compared to control (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.93–1.09, P = 0.94, I2 = 25%, Supplementary Figure 7).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Stroke · plain
- Findingown data
Meta-regression showed no association between an absolute increase in HDL cholesterol levels and cardiovascular mortality (slope −0.00002, P=0.99; R2=0).
“Meta-regression analysis showed that there was no association between an absolute increase in HDL cholesterol levels and cardiovascular mortality (slope −0.00002, P = 0.99; R2 = 0, Supplementary Figure 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
The background therapies have varied over the duration of time.
“Finally, the background therapies have varied over the duration of time.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
HDL cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant effect on cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.89-1.00, P=0.05, I2=13%).
“High-density lipoprotein cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant effect on cardiovascular mortality in terms of relative risk (RR) (RR 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89–1.00, P = 0.05, I2 = 13%)”
- Also stated in: § Cardiovascular mortality · plain
“HDL cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant effect on cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.89–1.00, P = 0.05, I2 = 13%; Figure 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Cardiovascular mortality · plain
- Findingown data
HDL cholesterol modifiers had no effect on the absolute risk of cardiovascular mortality (RD −0.0001, 95% CI −0.0014, 0.0011, P=0.84, I2=28%).
“There was no benefit in terms of absolute risk (RD −0.0001, 95% CI −0.0014, 0.0011, P = 0.84, I2 = 28%).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In studies with background statin therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant impact on stroke.
“Conversely, in studies in which statins were used as background therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant impact on cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.90–1.05, P = 0.46, I2 = 0%) or MI (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.88–1.01, P = 0.12, I2 = 21%) or stroke or all-cause mortality (Figure 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
CETP inhibitors had the greatest impact on HDL cholesterol (MD 56.30, 95% CI 24.92, 87.68, P<0.001, I2=98%).
“CETP inhibitors had the greatest impact on HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) (MD 56.30, 95% CI 24.92, 87.68, P < 0.001, I2 = 98%), followed by niacin (MD 7.65, 95% CI 4.36, 10.94, P < 0.001, I2 = 68%) and fibrates (MD 3.30, 95% CI 1.40, 5.21, P < 0.001, I2 = 98%, Supplementary Figure 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In niacin trials, no significant benefit per unit decrease in LDL cholesterol was observed for MI (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.32-1.1, P=0.06, R2=97%).
“In the case of niacin (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.32–1.1, P = 0.06, R2 = 97%) and CETP inhibitors (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.10–2.63, P = 0.34, R2 = 5%) no significant benefit per unit decrease in LDL cholesterol was observed (Pinteraction = 0.01) (Figure 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Meta-regression analysis did not show a significant association between the risk of MI and absolute increase in HDL cholesterol (slope 0.061, P=0.13, R2=4%).
“Meta regression analysis did not show a significant association between the risk of MI and absolute increase in HDL cholesterol (slope 0.061, P = 0.13, R2 = 4%, Supplementary Figure 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
HDL cholesterol modifiers significantly increased HDL cholesterol levels compared to control (MD 4.54, 95% CI 2.89, 6.19, P<0.001, I2=98%).
“HDL cholesterol modifiers significantly increased the HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) levels compared to control (MD 4.54, 95% CI 2.89, 6.19, P < 0.001, I2 = 98%).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Absolute LDL cholesterol accounted for 95% of the variability (R2) in outcome for fibrates.
“Absolute LDL cholesterol accounted for 95% of the variability (R2) in outcome for fibrates.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Fibrates increased HDL cholesterol (MD 3.30, 95% CI 1.40, 5.21, P<0.001, I2=98%).
“CETP inhibitors had the greatest impact on HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) (MD 56.30, 95% CI 24.92, 87.68, P < 0.001, I2 = 98%), followed by niacin (MD 7.65, 95% CI 4.36, 10.94, P < 0.001, I2 = 68%) and fibrates (MD 3.30, 95% CI 1.40, 5.21, P < 0.001, I2 = 98%, Supplementary Figure 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Meta-regression analyses failed to demonstrate a significant association of pharmacologically increased HDL cholesterol with key endpoints.
“Meta-regression analyses failed to demonstrate a significant association of pharmacologically increased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with key endpoints.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In trials which did not use statins as background therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers were associated with a significant risk reduction in cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79-0.98, P=0.02, I2=31%).
“Subgroup analysis showed that in trials which did not use statins as background therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers were associated with a significant risk reduction in cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79–0.98, P = 0.02, I2 = 31%) and MI (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71–0.85, P < 0.001, I2 = 9%), while HDL cholesterol modifiers had no effect on stroke or all-cause mortality (Figure 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
HDL cholesterol modifiers reduced the relative risk of myocardial infarction (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82-0.93, P<0.001, I2=37%).
“High-density lipoprotein cholesterol modifiers reduced the RR of myocardial infarction (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82–0.93, P < 0.001, I2 = 37%).”
- Also stated in: § Myocardial infarction · plain
“HDL cholesterol modifiers reduced the relative risk of MI by 13% (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82–0.93, P < 0.001, I2 = 37%, Supplementary Figure 6).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Myocardial infarction · plain
- Findingown data
In studies with background statin therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant impact on myocardial infarction (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.88-1.01, P=0.12, I2=21%).
“Conversely, in studies in which statins were used as background therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers had no statistically significant impact on cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.90–1.05, P = 0.46, I2 = 0%) or MI (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.88–1.01, P = 0.12, I2 = 21%) or stroke or all-cause mortality (Figure 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In trials which did not use statins as background therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers were associated with a significant risk reduction in MI (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.85, P<0.001, I2=9%).
“Subgroup analysis showed that in trials which did not use statins as background therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers were associated with a significant risk reduction in cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79–0.98, P = 0.02, I2 = 31%) and MI (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71–0.85, P < 0.001, I2 = 9%), while HDL cholesterol modifiers had no effect on stroke or all-cause mortality (Figure 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Niacin reduced triglycerides (MD −31.41, 95% CI −49.38, −13.44, P<0.001, I2=80%).
“HDL cholesterol modifiers were associated with a significant reduction in triglycerides (mg/dL) (MD −10.94, 95% CI −13.25, −8.62, P < 0.001, I2 = 79%), with maximum reduction provided by fibrates (MD −44.50, 95% CI −54.73, −34.26, P < 0.001, I2 = 40%), followed by niacin (MD −31.41, 95% CI, −49.38, −13.44, P < 0.001, I2 = 80%) and CETP inhibitors (MD −8.72, 95% CI, −11.12, −6.32, P < 0.001, I2 = 4”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In trials which did not use statins as background therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers had no effect on stroke.
“Subgroup analysis showed that in trials which did not use statins as background therapy, HDL cholesterol modifiers were associated with a significant risk reduction in cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79–0.98, P = 0.02, I2 = 31%) and MI (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71–0.85, P < 0.001, I2 = 9%), while HDL cholesterol modifiers had no effect on stroke or all-cause mortality (Figure 4).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Niacin had no significant effect on myocardial infarction.
“neither CTEP inhibitors nor niacin had significant effects on MI.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
The funnel plot and Egger's regression test did not detect publication bias (P > 0.05).
“The funnel plot (Supplementary Figure 9) and Egger’s regression test did not detect publication bias (P (two-tailed) > 0.05) (Supplementary Table 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
Our findings refute the efficacy of HDL cholesterol modifiers on hard clinical endpoints.
“Our findings refute the efficacy of HDL cholesterol modifiers on hard clinical endpoints.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Genetic variants that increase HDL cholesterol have no significant association with the risk of MI (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.88-1.11, P=0.85).
“For instance, a large Mendelian randomization study (20,913 MI cases, 95,407 controls) identified 14 single nucleotide polymorphisms that increase HDL cholesterol and found that such polymorphisms had no significant association with the risk of MI (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.88–1.11, P = 0.85) despite significantly increasing HDL levels.50”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [50] Voight BF, Peloso GM, Orho-Melander M, Plasma HDL cholesterol and risk of myocardial infarction: a Mendelian randomisation study. Lancet (London, England) 2012; 380: 572– 580. PMC3419820 22607825
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data
These results suggest that despite the long-standing interest in pharmacological interventions aimed at increasing HDL cholesterol, such therapies are unlikely to generate meaningful clinical benefits.
“These results suggest that despite the long-standing interest in pharmacological interventions aimed at increasing HDL cholesterol, such therapies are unlikely to generate meaningful clinical benefits.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The beneficial effect seen in the initial studies may reflect effects on other lipoproteins such as LDL cholesterol or triglyceride reduction.
“Therefore, the beneficial effect seen in the initial studies may reflect effects on other lipoproteins such as LDL cholesterol or triglyceride reduction.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Increasing HDL cholesterol on its own is unlikely to be of mechanistic relevance, unless coupled with an alternative pathway such as lowering LDL cholesterol.
“Furthermore, by looking into three distinct therapies, all of which increase HDL cholesterol, we provide strength to the notion that increasing HDL cholesterol on its own is unlikely to be of mechanistic relevance, unless coupled with an alternative pathway such as lowering LDL cholesterol.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- May combine two claims. 4
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 5
May combine two claims.
Findingnone givenIn the included trials, the new studies on CETP inhibition almost uniformly had background statin therapy, whereas background statin therapy was inconsistent in older studies of fibrates and niacin.
“The new studies on CETP inhibition almost uniformly have background statin therapy, whereas such therapy was inconsistent with the older studies of fibrates and niacin.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenData abstraction was done by two authors independently on a prespecified data collection form.
“The data abstraction was done by two authors (SUK and HR) independently on a prespecified data collection form.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataTwo authors independently screened studies based on prespecified inclusion criteria.
“Two authors (SUK and HR) independently screened studies based on prespecified inclusion criteria.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataMeta-regression analyses confirmed that the observed MI benefit by fibrates was due to LDL cholesterol reduction and there is a lack of association between HDL cholesterol and a reduction in the outcomes of interest.
“Meta-regression analyses confirmed that the observed MI benefit by fibrates was due to LDL cholesterol reduction and there is a lack of association between HDL cholesterol and a reduction in the outcomes of interest.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationThe meta-analysis was performed and reported in accordance with Cochrane collaboration guidelines and PRISMA guidelines.
“This meta-analysis was performed and reported in accordance with Cochrane collaboration guidelines8 and preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines.9”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [8] Higgins JPT and Green S (eds). Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions Version 5.1.0 [ updated March 2011]. The Cochrane Collaboration, 2011 Available at http://handbook.cochrane.org.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [9] Moher D, Liberati A, Tetzlaff J, Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses: the PRISMA statement. BMJ (Clinical Research ed) 2009; 339: b2535. PMC2714657 19622551 source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe apparent clinical benefits of these therapies are driven by the studies of the pre-statin era, and the use of effective statins as background therapy had nullified the influence of HDL-raising therapies.
“The apparent clinical benefits of these therapies are driven by the studies of the pre-statin era, and the use of effective statins as background therapy had nullified the influence of HDL-raising therapies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationThe quality of the trials was assessed using the Cochrane bias risk assessment tool.
“The quality of the trials was assessed using the Cochrane bias risk assessment tool14 (Supplementary Table 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [14] Higgins JPT, Altman DG, Gøtzsche PC, The Cochrane Collaboration’s tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials. BMJ (Clinical Research ed) 2011; 343: d5928. PMC3196245 22008217 source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationPublication bias was assessed using funnel plot and Egger's regression test.
“Publication bias was assessed using funnel plot and Egger’s regression test.17”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [17] Egger M, Davey Smith G, Schneider M, Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test. BMJ (Clinical Research ed) 1997; 315: 629– 634. PMC2127453 9310563 source
Not checked in the free run.
The paper relies on this without support.
The endpoint definitions used in the individual trials are sufficiently comparable to be pooled in the meta-analysis.
“The definitions of the endpoints were taken as reported in the individual trial.”
“We relied on the endpoint definitions of the individual studies and the possibility of heterogeneity in the outcome definitions cannot be excluded.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Trial-level aggregate data are sufficient to estimate the effects of HDL cholesterol modifiers on cardiovascular outcomes.
“The major limitations of this analysis are that this is a pooled analysis of individual trials as we did not have access to the individual patient data.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Mendelian randomization studies have provided accumulating evidence against the observational results that high levels of HDL-C are protective against CHD risk.
“MR studies have provided accumulating evidence against the observational results above.136–140”
From Mendelian randomization (2022) · cites this paper as [140]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Overall LDL cholesterol estimate is not centered in its confidence interval
MinorFor a mean difference, the reported 95% confidence interval has a midpoint of −10.805 mg/dL, not the stated estimate of −10.58 mg/dL. The gap is larger than rounding to two decimal places can explain.
Reported -10.58 · recomputed -10.805
“HDL cholesterol modifiers significantly reduced LDL cholesterol levels (mg/dL) (MD −10.58, 95% CI −13.61, −8.00, P < 0.001, I2 = 98%)”
The citation lists haven’t been fetched yet
References 47 · Cited by 61
- Authors
- Riaz, H., Khan, S. U., Rahman, H., Shah, N. P., Kaluski, E., Lincoff, A. M., & Nissen, S. E.
- Affiliations
- Cleveland Clinic (US)
- West Virginia University (US)
- Guthrie Robert Packer Hospital (US)
- Corresponding author
- Riaz, Haris
- Venue
- European Journal of Preventive Cardiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2018-12-06
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 533-543
- ISSN
- 2047-4873 (ISSN-L)
- 2047-4881
- PMC
- PMC7879587
- OpenAlex
- W2905047802
- Semantic Scholar
- 0ecc7f169160115b0a056e3dccf0e0517e660930
- Cited by
- 61
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 3
- FWCI
- 1.28
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- European Journal of Preventive Cardiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U54GM104942)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Lipoproteins and Cardiovascular Health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Cholesterol and Lipid Metabolism
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Acute Myocardial Infarction Research
- Keywords
- HDL cholesterol, nicotinic acid, fibrates, cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitors, cardiovascular outcomes, cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, all-cause mortality, statin therapy
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Hypolipidemic Agents, Cardiovascular Diseases, Female, Humans, Cholesterol, HDL, Male, Middle Aged, Niacin, Risk Factors, Biomarkers, Up-Regulation, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Treatment Outcome, Risk Assessment, Dyslipidemias, Cholesterol Ester Transfer Proteins
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-10.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-10.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review