Modeling the role of environmental variables on the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto
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BACKGROUND: The impact of weather and climate on malaria transmission has attracted considerable attention in recent years, yet uncertainties around future disease trends under climate change remain. Mathematical models provide powerful tools for addressing such questions and understanding the implications for interventions and eradication strategies, but these require realistic modeling of the vector population dynamics and its response to environmental variables. METHODS: Published and unpublished field and experimental data are used to develop new formulations for modeling the relationships between key aspects of vector ecology and environmental variables. These relationships are integrated within a validated deterministic model of Anopheles gambiae s.s. population dynamics to provide a valuable tool for understanding vector response to biotic and abiotic variables. RESULTS: A novel, parsimonious framework for assessing the effects of rainfall, cloudiness, wind speed, desiccation, temperature, relative humidity and density-dependence on vector abundance is developed, allowing ease of construction, analysis, and integration into malaria transmission models. Model validation shows good agreement with longitudinal vector abundance data from Tanzania, suggesting that recent malaria reductions in certain areas of Africa could be due to changing environmental conditions affecting vector populations. CONCLUSIONS: Mathematical models provide a powerful, explanatory means of understanding the role of environmental variables on mosquito populations and hence for predicting future malaria transmission under global change. The framework developed provides a valuable advance in this respect, but also highlights key research gaps that need to be resolved if we are to better understand future malaria risk in vulnerable communities.
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Most attempts to represent surface hydrology in malaria transmission modeling resort to a simple conceptual water balance model to determine the availability of water for larval habitats.
“Most resort to a simple conceptual water balance model to determine the availability of water for larval habitats (Asare, Tompkins, Amekudzi, & Ermert, 2016; Montosi et al., 2012; Parham et al., 2012; Patz et al., 1998), while only a few have proposed more sophisticated hydrologic models that further consider canopy processes and subsurface flows (Bomblies et al., 2008; Le et al., 2018).”
From Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology‐Based Model (2023) · cites this paper as Parham et al., 2012
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- Authors
- Parham, P. E., Pople, D., Christiansen-Jucht, C., Lindsay, S., Hinsley, W., & Michael, E.
- Affiliations
- Imperial College London (GB)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- University of Notre Dame (US)
- Corresponding author
- Parham, Paul E
- Venue
- Malaria Journal
- Published
- 2012-08-09
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 271-271
- ISSN
- 1475-2875 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3496602
- OpenAlex
- W2108999275
- Cited by
- 85
- References
- 54
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 6.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Malaria Journal (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- University of Notre Dame
- Imperial College London
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- Anopheles gambiae, malaria vectors, vector population dynamics, environmental variables, rainfall, cloud cover, wind speed, desiccation, temperature, relative humidity, density dependence, vector abundance, malaria transmission, climate change, Tanzania
- MeSH terms
- Africa, Animals, Anopheles, Climate, Disease Vectors, Models, Theoretical, Population Dynamics
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