Impact of Smoking Reduction on Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Trends During 1981–2000 in England and Wales
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: To explore how much of the coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality fall in England and Wales can be attributed to changes in smoking prevalence. METHODS: A previously validated cell-based IMPACT CHD mortality model was used to estimate the deaths prevented or postponed by changes in population smoking prevalence in England and Wales between 1981 and 2000. CHD mortality statistics and population trends in smoking were obtained from routine data sources. RESULTS: In England and Wales between 1981 and 2000, smoking prevalence in adults aged 25-84 decreased from 43% to 28% in men and from 35% to 24% in women. In men, most of the decrease occurred in those aged over 55. Smoking prevalence changed little in older women. An estimated 29,460 deaths were prevented or postponed (DPP) by this population reduction in smoking prevalence. Most of this benefit was seen in men (86% of the DPPs versus 14% in women). CONCLUSION: Large declines in smoking prevalence accounted for 29,460 fewer CHD deaths in England and Wales in 2000 compared with 1981. This emphasises the importance of a national strategy with comprehensive tobacco control programmes to further reduce smoking.
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Most risk-reduction occurs within 5 years of quitting smoking.
“We chose a 5-year lag based on findings showing that most risk-reduction occurs within 5 years of quitting smoking.45”
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- Authors
- Unal, B., Critchley, J., & Capewell, S.
- Affiliations
- University of Liverpool (GB)
- ORCID
- Capewell, S
- Venue
- Tobacco Induced Diseases
- Publisher
- E.U. European Publishing
- Published
- 2003
- Volume
- 1
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 185
- ISSN
- 1617-9625 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC2671547
- OpenAlex
- W2126648098
- Cited by
- 8
- References
- 73
- Citations by year
- 2023: 1 · 2019: 1 · 2017: 1 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 3
- FWCI
- 0.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Tobacco Induced Diseases (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- St George's Online Research Archive (St George's University of London) (acceptedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Keywords
- smoking prevalence, coronary heart disease mortality, mortality trends, IMPACT model, tobacco control, sex differences in smoking, older adults, England and Wales
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