The impact of macroeconomic factors on food price inflation: an evidence from India
Open accessAbstract
The present study investigates the impact of macroeconomic factors on food price inflation in India utilizing the monthly time series during January 2006–March 2019. The long-run relationship is confirmed among the variables using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration. The coefficients of long-run estimates show that per capita income, money supply, global food prices, and agricultural wages are positively and significantly impacted food price inflation in both the short and long-run. While food grain availability has a negative and significant impact on food price inflation in both the short-run and long run. Further, the short-run estimates revealed that real exchange rate positively impacts food price inflation. However, the coefficient is insignificant in the short-run. The Granger causality estimates show that a short-run bidirectional causality is confirmed among per capita income, the exchange rate, per capita net availability of food grain and food price inflation. Further, there is evidence of unidirectional causality running from global food prices to food price inflation. However, there is no causal relationship running from money supply and agricultural wages to food price inflation in the short-run.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.616 · Cited by 20,385 · see citing works
Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990) · Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x · Cited by 14,051 · see citing works
Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models
Johansen, S. (1991) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/2938278 · Cited by 11,287 · see citing works
Mitchell, D. O. (2008) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-4682 · Cited by 1,095 · see citing works
Food versus fuel: What do prices tell us?
Zhang, Z., Lohr, L., Escalante, C. L., & Wetzstein, M. E. (2009) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.09.034 · Cited by 463 · see citing works
Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia
Durevall, D. J., Loening, J. L., & Birru, Y. A. (2013) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.05.002 · Cited by 137 · see citing works
Global food prices and monetary policy in an emerging market economy: The case of India
Holtemöller, O., & Mallick, S. (2016) · Journal of Asian Economics · doi:10.1016/j.asieco.2016.08.005 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Shahbaz, M. Q., Arouri, M. E. H., & Teulon, F. (2014) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2014.05.019 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Now-casting inflation using high frequency data
Modugno, M. (2013) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.12.003 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis
Iddrisu, A., & Alagidede, P. (2020) · Food Policy · doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101816 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
The Money Supply and Nominal Agricultural Prices
Barnett, R. C., Bessler, D. A., & Thompson, R. L. (1983) · American Journal of Agricultural Economics · doi:10.2307/1240878 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Can monetary policy stabilise food inflation? Evidence from advanced and emerging economies
Bhattacharya, R., & Jain, R. (2019) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2019.10.005 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Anand, R., Ding, D., & Tulin, V. (2014) · IMF Working Paper · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2519004 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
The savings-growth nexus for the Malaysian economy: a view through rolling sub-samples
Tang, C. F., & Chua, S. Y. (2011) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2011.587784 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Food price inflation in India: The growing economy with sluggish agriculture
Sasmal, J. (2015) · Journal of Economics Finance and Administrative Science · doi:10.1016/j.jefas.2015.01.005 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Determinants of energy demand in African frontier market economies: An empirical investigation
Paramati, S. R., Bhattacharya, M., Öztürk, İ., & Zakari, A. (2018) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.01.146 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Monetary easing policy and long-run food prices: Evidence from China
Yu, X. (2014) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2014.03.029 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Impacts of monetary and macroeconomic factors on food prices in eastern and southern Africa
Kargbo, J. M. (2000) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036840050151467 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
IMPACTS OF MONETARY AND MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON FOOD PRICES IN WEST AFRICA
Kargbo, J. M. (2005) · Agrekon · doi:10.1080/03031853.2005.9523710 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Effects of the Monetary Macro-Economy on Canadian Agricultural Prices
Taylor, J., & Spriggs, J. (1989) · Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d économique · doi:10.2307/135669 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
International Transmission of Food Prices and Volatilities: A Panel AnalysisPreprint
Lee, H.-H., & Park, C. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2323056 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
The Effect of Monetary Changes on Relative Agricultural Prices
Asfaha, T. A., & Jooste, A. (2007) · Agrekon · doi:10.1080/03031853.2007.9523781 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Mushtaq, K., Ghafoor, A., Abedullah, A., & Ahmad, F. (2011) · The Lahore journal of economics · doi:10.35536/lje.2011.v16.i1.a4 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Understanding High Inflation Trend in India
Goyal, A. (2015) · South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance · doi:10.1177/2277978715574614 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
The effects of macroeconomic factors on South African agriculture
Kargbo, J. M. (2007) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036840600735374 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Determinants and Development Implications of Foodgrains Prices in India, 1949–1964
Mellor, J. W., & Dar, A. K. (1968) · American Journal of Agricultural Economics · doi:10.2307/1237632 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
What Role Did Rising Demand Play in Driving Food Prices Up?
Bhattacharya, R., & Gupta, A. S. (2017) · South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance · doi:10.1177/2277978717695155 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Transmission of Global Food Prices to Domestic Prices: Evidence from Sri Lanka
Sivarajasingham, S., Applanaidu, S.-D., & Hassan, S. (2015) · Asian Social Science · doi:10.5539/ass.v11n12215 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Dynamics of Food Inflation: Assessing the Role of Intermediaries
Huria, S. C., & Pathania, K. (2018) · Global Business Review · doi:10.1177/0972150918788763 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Relative Price Variability in Greek Agriculture
Reziti, I. (2005) · International Advances in Economic Research · doi:10.1007/s11294-004-7494-9 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 10
- Agrawal P, Kumarasamy D (2014) Food price inflation in India: causes and cures. Indian Econ Rev 49(1):57-84
- Baltzer K (2013) International to domestic price transmission in fourteen developing countries during the 2007-08. [In] Food crisis food price policy in an era of market instability. Oxford University Press, Oxford
- Bhattacharya R, Sen Gupta A (2018) Drivers and impact of food inflation in India. Macroecon Finance Emerg Mark Econ 11(2):146-168
- Bicchal M, Durai SRS (2019) Rationality of inflation expectations: an inter- pretation of Google Trends data. Macroecon Finance Emerg Mark Econ 12(3):229-239
- Carrasco B, Mukhopadhyay H (2012) Food price escalation in South Asia. Econ Polit Wkly 47(46):59-70
- Joiya S, Shahzad A (2013) Determinants of high food prices: the case of Pakistan. Pak Econ Soc Rev 51(1):93-107
- Nair S, Eapen L (2012) Food price inflation in India (2008 to 2010). Econ Polit Wkly 47(20):46-54
- Pesaran MH, Shin Y (1999) An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In: Strom S (ed) Econometrics and economic theory in 20th century: the Ragnar Frisch centennial sympo- sium, Chapter 11. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
- Sivagnanam KJ, Murugan K (2016) Impact of public investment on agri- culture sector in India. J Econ Soc Dev 12(2):45-51
- Zhou S (2001) The power of cointegration tests versus data frequency and time spans. South Econ J 67(4):906-921
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Mrabet, Z., Alsamara, M., Mimouni, K., & Awwad, A. S. (2024) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106914 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Input subsidies, public investments and agricultural productivity in India
Zafar, S., Aarif, M., & Tarique, M. (2023) · Future Business Journal · doi:10.1186/s43093-023-00232-1 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Geopolitical risks, institutional environment, and food price inflation
Li, C., Zhang, W., Huang, X., & Zhang, J. F. (2024) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2024.2386853 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Determinants of India's cotton export performance: An empirical analysis
Yadav, A. K., & Chattopadhyay, U. (2024) · International Economics · doi:10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100521 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
TANDOĞAN, N. Ş., & Kayral, İ. E. (2024) · Agriculture · doi:10.3390/agriculture14050782 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Economic Feasibility Case Study of Developing a Salt Production Plant
Efendy, M., Syarif, M., Amir, N., & Hidayat, R. (2023) · The Engineering Economist · doi:10.1080/0013791x.2023.2205858 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Evolution of food price inflation in the European Union 27 member states
Balogh, J. M., & Sárvári, B. (2024) · Journal of Foodservice Business Research · doi:10.1080/15378020.2024.2324545 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Arintoko, A., Badriah, L. S., & Kadarwati, N. (2024) · Ekonomika · doi:10.15388/ekon.2024.103.2.4 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
de Oliveira, J. A., Baccarin, J. G., & Costa, E. P. V. D. S. (2024) · Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization · doi:10.1515/jafio-2024-0027 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Monetary policy and food price inflation: the case of Hungary
Bareith, T., & Fertő, I. (2024) · Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies · doi:10.1108/jadee-10-2023-0251 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Prišenk, J., Zidar, N., & Turk, J. (2025) · Foods · doi:10.3390/foods14030415 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Nayak, P., & Jena, P. K. (2024) · South Asian Journal of Business Studies · doi:10.1108/sajbs-08-2023-0281 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Warsame, A. A., & Mohamed, A. M. (2025) · Social Sciences & Humanities Open · doi:10.1016/j.ssaho.2025.102202 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Pakravan-Charvadeh, M. R. (2024) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2024.1354099 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Decomposition of food price inflation in Sri Lanka
Malaviarachchi, D., & Korale-Gedara, P. M. (2024) · Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy · doi:10.1080/13547860.2024.2378532 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Government policies in managing food price anomalies: Evidence from Iran
Mehdi, S., Ahangarkolaee, S. S., Javdan, E., & Kenari, R. E. (2025) · Journal of Policy Modeling · doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.006 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Assessing the effects of macroeconomic factors on food production in Somalia
Mohamed, M. A., & Ahmed, A. A. (2026) · Cogent Food & Agriculture · doi:10.1080/23311932.2026.2641280 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Impact of Cereal Production on Food Inflation in Nigeria
Peter, O. A., & Kwanashie, M. (2025) · African Journal of Agricultural Science and Food Research · doi:10.62154/ajasfr.2025.018.010628 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Does the Energy Transition Affect Food Prices and Agricultural Production?Preprint
Attílio, L. A., & Silva, E. C. D. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4848924 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Ridhwan, M. M., Andariesta, D. T., Hidayat, A. A., Tirtosuharto, D., Trinugroho, I., & Sergi, B. S. (2025) · British Food Journal · doi:10.1108/bfj-05-2025-0718 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Saputra, R., Devianto, D., Yanuar, F., ., M., Zainuddin, N. H., & Yozza, H. (2025) · E3S Web of Conferences · doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202567710003 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Farmer-centric marketing: ranking channels based on preferences in Indian agribusiness
Sharma, R., & Sharma, S. K. (2026) · Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies · doi:10.1108/jadee-04-2025-0180 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
李宇嘉, Zhao, B., & Che, M. (2026) · Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems · doi:10.3389/fsufs.2026.1751456 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Achua, J. K., Eboreime, M. I., & Ohiaeri, I. E. (2026) · Food and Humanity · doi:10.1016/j.foohum.2026.101152 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
What are Farmer Household Coping Strategies for Facing Crop Loss: Evidence from Indonesia
Feryanto, F., Harianto, H., & Rosiana, N. (2023) · Sustainability Science and Resources · doi:10.55168/ssr2809-6029.2023.5003 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Nigeria
El-Rasheed, S., Abdullahi, B. M., & Mustapha, A. (2023) · Gusau International Journal of Management and Social Sciences · doi:10.57233/gijmss.v6i3.13 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Design and Performance Analysis of a Solar-Powered Aquaponics Irrigation System for Home Gardening
Zulkifli, M. B. A., Thong, R. C. S., Mokhtar, N. M., & Ramli, R. M. (2025) · Journal of Physics Conference Series · doi:10.1088/1742-6596/2933/1/012024 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Achua, J. K., Eboreime, M. I., & Ohiaeri, I. E. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5356886 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Effect of Monetary Policy on Food Inflation in Nigeria: A Nardl Structural Approach
Ezebilo, C., Benedict, A., & Maimuna Yakubu, M. (2023) · Advances in Management and Applied Economics · doi:10.47260/amae/1356
Monetary Policy Credibility, Real Exchange rate and Exchange rate pass-through in IndiaPreprint
Peer, A. H., & Baig, M. A. (2023) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2547816/v1
IS CRYPTOCURRENCY SAFE HEAVEN: EVIDENCE FROM RUSSIA AND UKRAINE WAR
Dhonno, F. T., Sultana, A., Begum, H., & Ali, A. (2024) · Journal of Science and Technology · doi:10.59125/jst.22107
Aditya Prasad Sahoo, S. K. M. (2025) · doi:10.52783/eel.v15i2.2969
Esidene, E. E., Chinedu, O. F., Okwo, C. R., Akeshire, A. S., & Andrew, O. A. (2025) · Trends in Agricultural Sciences · doi:10.17311/tas.2025.156.162
DETERMINANT OF RICE PRICE IN INDONESIA: A FOURIER ENGLE-GRANGER COINTEGRATION TEST
Ariani, R., Nurjannah, N., Adhiana, A., & Fachrurrozi, K. (2024) · Agrisocionomics Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian · doi:10.14710/agrisocionomics.v8i3.20468
Econometric assessment of food price determinants: the case of Kazakhstan
Duisenbekova, A., Hamulczuk, M., Tleuzhanova, M., & Daniłowska, A. (2025) · Bulletin of Turan University · doi:10.46914/1562-2959-2025-1-3-171-186
Vaishnavi, D., Santosh, B. R., & Desai, G. (2026) · F1000Research · doi:10.12688/f1000research.174434.1
Impact of Rising Prices on Indian Economy – Granger Causality and Correlation Test
Bhavani, B., & Sundaram, M. (2025) · ANVESHAK-International Journal of Management · doi:10.15410/aijm/2025/v14i2/173246
The Interplay of Climate, Subsidies and Monetary Factors in Shaping India’s Food Price Inflation
Nayak, P., & Jena, P. K. (2026) · The Indian Economic Journal · doi:10.1177/00194662261425167
Achua, J. K., Eboreime, M. I., & Ohiaeri, I. E. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.6444120
Phoong, S. Y., & Phoong, S. W. (2026) · Journal of Foodservice Business Research · doi:10.1080/15378020.2026.2653580
Ahmed, M., Kheir, A. M. S., Malik, S. R., & Prasad, P. V. V. (2026) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-21005-0_1
Underweight prevalence among children under five in Sri Lanka: unpacking the role of food prices
Madanayaka, W. M. G. T., Fonseka, K. N. N., Perera, S., & de Silva, T. (2026) · BMC Nutrition · doi:10.1186/s40795-026-01352-x
Balancing act: the economic toll of India’s 2021 suspension of agricultural futures trading
Arrawatia, R., Padmakumari, L., & Sharma, S. (2026) · Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies · doi:10.1108/jadee-04-2025-0163
Relationship between climate anomalies and rice price in markets across Indonesia
Pratiwi, I. E., & Joshi, N. P. (2026) · Discover Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s43621-026-03862-x
Benny, V., Lakshmi, K., & Sonny, M. (2026) · SN Business & Economics · doi:10.1007/s43546-026-01260-z
Demiray, A. (2026) · Namık Kemal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksek Okulu Dergisi · doi:10.56493/nkusbmyo.2015176
- Authors
- Samal, A., Ummalla, M., & Goyari, P.
- Affiliations
- University of Hyderabad (IN)
- Woxsen School of Business (IN)
- Corresponding author
- Samal, Asharani
- Venue
- Future Business Journal
- Published
- 2022-06-21
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 2314-7202 (ISSN-L)
- 2314-7210
- OpenAlex
- W4283205318
- Cited by
- 45
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 6
- FWCI
- 6.44
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
- doi.org
- Locations
- Future Business Journal (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Keywords
- food inflation, macroeconomic factors, per capita income, money supply, global food prices, agricultural wages, real exchange rate, India
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
