Bootstrap Methods for Developing Predictive Models
Abstract
Researchers frequently use automated model selection methods such as backwards elimination to identify variables that are independent predictors of an outcome under consideration. We propose using bootstrap resampling in conjunction with automated variable selection methods to develop parsimonious prediction models. Using data on patients admitted to hospital with a heart attack, we demonstrate that selecting those variables that were identified as independent predictors of mortality in at least 60%% of the bootstrap samples resulted in a parsimonious model with excellent predictive ability.
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The multi-model ensemble mean increase in Niño3.4 SST variability under SSP585 is 16.1% and statistically significant according to a Bootstrap method.
“The multi-model ensemble mean increase (16.1%) is statistically significant according to a Bootstrap method 18 (see 'Bootstrap test' in Methods and Extended Data Fig. 1).”
From Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios (2022) · cites this paper as [18]
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Prognosis and prognostic research: Developing a prognostic model
Royston, P., Moons, K. G. M., Altman, D. G., & Vergouwe, Y. (2009) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.b604 · Cited by 1,172 · see citing works
Treatment selection in depression.
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“For the multivariable analysis, we performed a Poisson regression with robust error variance [16] with a bootstrap model selection variable method [17] to assess all relevant variables.”
MethodIncreased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios
Cai, W., Ng, B., Wang, G., Santoso, A., Wu, L., & Yang, K. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01282-z · Cited by 263 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Austin, P. C., & Tu, J. V.
- Affiliations
- Sunnybrook Health Science Centre (CA)
- Venue
- The American Statistician
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2004-05
- Volume
- 58
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 131-137
- ISSN
- 0003-1305 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-2731
- OpenAlex
- W1978954330
- Cited by
- 622
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 31 · 2025: 37 · 2024: 46 · 2023: 36 · 2022: 36 · 2021: 45 · 2020: 41 · 2019: 34 · 2018: 37 · 2017: 28 · 2016: 26 · 2015: 22 · 2014: 30 · 2013: 35 · 2012: 31
- FWCI
- 7.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The American Statistician (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Inference
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Applications
- Keywords
- bootstrapping, backward elimination, predictive modeling, parsimonious models, heart attack mortality, hospitalization
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