Cited by 144Ethics and Social Impacts of AICriminal Justice and Corrections AnalysisPrivacy-Preserving Technologies in Data

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 43 of the 43 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 12 of the 33 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

An algorithm for removing sensitive information: Application to race-independent recidivism prediction

Open access
Johndrow, James E., Lum, Kristian·2019·The Annals of Applied Statistics

Abstract

Predictive modeling is increasingly being employed to assist human decision-makers. One purported advantage of replacing or augmenting human judgment with computer models in high stakes settings—such as sentencing, hiring, policing, college admissions, and parole decisions—is the perceived “neutrality” of computers. It is argued that because computer models do not hold personal prejudice, the predictions they produce will be equally free from prejudice. There is growing recognition that employing algorithms does not remove the potential for bias, and can even amplify it if the training data were generated by a process that is itself biased. In this paper, we provide a probabilistic notion of algorithmic bias. We propose a method to eliminate bias from predictive models by removing all information regarding protected variables from the data to which the models will ultimately be trained. Unlike previous work in this area, our procedure accommodates data on any measurement scale. Motivated by models currently in use in the criminal justice system that inform decisions on pre-trial release and parole, we apply our proposed method to a dataset on the criminal histories of individuals at the time of sentencing to produce “race-neutral” predictions of re-arrest. In the process, we demonstrate that a common approach to creating “race-neutral” models—omitting race as a covariate—still results in racially disparate predictions. We then demonstrate that the application of our proposed method to these data removes racial disparities from predictions with minimal impact on predictive accuracy.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The paper proposes a likelihood-based chained transformation that removes information about protected variables from training data, accommodating mixed-scale covariates and targeting mutual independence from race. Applied to Broward County recidivism data, it produces race-independent predictions with only slight loss in predictive accuracy.

Key findings

  • Omitting race as a covariate does not yield race-neutral predictions: models trained on unadjusted data still show large racial disparities in predicted re-arrest distributions.
  • The proposed adjustment removes most racial dependence: pairwise Cramér’s V statistics are reduced to near zero in adjusted data, and random forest predictions by race become nearly identical.
  • Predictive accuracy changes little: random forest AUC was 0.72 unadjusted and 0.71 adjusted, comparable to Northpointe’s reported 0.70 for this dataset.
  • Adjustment altered high-risk classification rates: African-American high-risk proportion decreased by 0.07 (0.47 to 0.40), Caucasian increased by 0.14 (0.25 to 0.39), and Hispanic increased by 0.15 (0.27 to 0.42); false-positive-rate variation across race decreased (mad 0.05 to 0.02), while positive predictive value variation increased (mad 0.02 to 0.06).

Methods

  • The method transforms covariates \(X\) to new variables \(W\) independent of protected variables \(Z\) by chaining conditional CDF transformations, matching conditional quantiles to marginal quantiles; it handles continuous, count, binary, and other mixed-scale variables and aims for mutual rather than only pairwise independence.
  • The application uses ProPublica’s Broward County, Florida recidivism dataset, with race as the protected variable and re-arrest within two years as the outcome; covariates include age, sex, and juvenile/adult prior charge counts.
  • The authors estimate conditional distributions with parametric regressions, generate \(K=50\) adjusted datasets, and compare random forest and logistic regression predictions on unadjusted, pairwise-adjusted, and adjusted data using ROC/AUC, calibration-like distribution plots, Cramér’s V, and race-specific accuracy metrics.

Limitations

  • The paper states that the conditional distributions \(F_{X_j|V^{(j)}}\) are estimated and may be misspecified in finite samples or asymptotically, so model fit must be checked carefully and a “black box” automated approach is not recommended.
  • The paper notes that dependence among variables may change over time, requiring routine re-testing and possible retraining; it also states that re-arrest is a biased measure of re-offense, which motivates the fairness definition but limits outcome validation.
  • Evident from the text: the method’s guarantee depends on accurate conditional modeling, and the empirical application is one dataset with a contested demographic-parity fairness criterion; the paper itself notes disagreement among researchers about appropriate fairness notions.

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Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1214/18-aoas1201

Cites

43 of 43 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

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Claims the paper makes

50 Own interpretation · 34 Own result · 22 No basis given · 5 Not checked yet · 4 Partly supported · 4 No full text of the sources · 3 Supported · 3 Sources not found · 1 Not supported · 1 Couldn’t confirm · 1 Own method · accuracy not yet measured

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  • Probably not a substantial claim. 29
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 33
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1
58 of 58
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The average level of criminality is independent of race.

    “the most reasonable approach is to assume that the average level of criminality is independent of race.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The joint and conditional distributions of (X, Z) are known, and the target distribution G is fixed and user-specified.

    “In the following motivating sections, we assume the joint and conditional distributions of (X, Z) are known, and the desired target distribution, G, is fixed and user-specified.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    In the overwhelming majority of applications, X and Z are dependent.

    “In the overwhelming majority of applications, X and Z are dependent, and thus we must take additional measures to ensure Y is fair.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The distribution of risk is independent of race.

    “Thus, as we argue above, a reasonable way to proceed is to assume that the distribution of risk is independent of race.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The outcome variable (re-arrest) is observed with bias with respect to the protected variable (race).

    “Given that the outcome variable is observed with bias with respect to the protected variable”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    A suitable conditional model can be found to adequately describe the full conditional distribution of the permitted variables given the protected variables.

    “so long as a suitable conditional model can be found to adequately describe the full conditional distribution of the permitted variables given the protected variables”
6 of 6

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Metadata

Authors
Johndrow, J. E., & Lum, K.
Affiliations
Stanford University (US)
Venue
The Annals of Applied Statistics
Published
2019-03-01
Volume
13
Issue
1
Pages
189-220
ISSN
  • 1932-6157 (ISSN-L)
  • 1941-7330
OpenAlex
W2600853029
Cited by
141
References
40
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 32 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 19
FWCI
41.52
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • The Annals of Applied Statistics (publishedVersion)
  • arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
  • Project Euclid (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
  • arXiv (Cornell University)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Ethics and Social Impacts of AI
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Privacy-Preserving Technologies in Data
Keywords
algorithmic bias, sensitive information removal, recidivism prediction, protected characteristics, parole decisions, sentencing, racial disparities, criminal justice

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