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Confounding and Collapsibility in Causal Inference
Open accessAbstract
Consideration of confounding is fundamental to the design and analysis of studies of causal effects. Yet, apart from confounding in experimental designs, the topic is given little or no discussion in most statistics texts. We here provide an overview of confounding and related concepts based on a counterfactual model for causation. Special attention is given to definitions of confounding, problems in control of confounding, the relation of confounding to exchangeability and collapsibility, and the importance of distinguishing confounding from noncollapsibility.
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“Both models account for potential biases and confounding factors [20, 21].”
From Health and Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate-Related Displacement in Bangladesh’s Chars: Causal Evidence From a Household Survey (2026) · cites this paper as [20]
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“The causal interpretation of the estimated treatment effects relies on the standard identification assumptions used in the program-evaluation literature [16, 20, 21].”
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“Moreover, under the assumption of causal sufficiency (i.e., absence of latent confounders), all causal effects can be identified by back-door adjustment according to the known causal structure (Spirtes, Glymour, and Scheines 1993; Pearl 2009; Greenland, Robins, and Pearl 1999).”
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“For the ratio-based model (5), the estimating function (10) can be further augmented as”
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“…Or in the test data to 0.30, 0.70, 1.00, 1.50, and 3.00. note that we focus exclusively on power because the conditional Or will differ from the marginal Or due to noncollapsibility 24 ; other performance metrics (see below) are presented in the etables 1–6 (http://links.lww.com/eDe/a972).”
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Re: "Estimating the Relative Risk in Cohort Studies and Clinical Trials of Common Outcomes"
Karp, I. (2014) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwt435 · Cited by 9
Coman, E., Thoemmes, F. J., & Fifield, J. (2017) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00151 · Cited by 9
Kluender, C. R., Germino, M. J., & Anthony, C. R. (2024) · Journal of Applied Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2664.14638 · Cited by 8
Transportability of model‐based estimands in evidence synthesis
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“On the aforementioned additive scale, the conditional average treatment effect estimand for the trial is defined as: 44”
Tian, H., Patel, A., & Burgess, S. (2024) · Statistics in Medicine · doi:10.1002/sim.10222 · Cited by 10
Phillippo, D., Remiro‐Azócar, A., Heath, A., Baio, G., Dias, S., Ades, A. E., & Welton, N. J. (2025) · Research Synthesis Methods · doi:10.1017/rsm.2025.2 · Cited by 8
Vader, D. T., Mamtani, R., Li, Y., Griffith, S. D., Calip, G. S., & Hubbard, R. A. (2023) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ede.0000000000001618 · Cited by 8
“13,14 However, there is limited guidance on which missing data approaches perform adequately (i.e., with minimal bias) and under what conditions when conducting comparative effectiveness research using IPTWs.”
BackgroundSynthesis estimators for transportability with positivity violations by a continuous covariate
Zivich, P. N., Edwards, J. K., Shook‐Sa, B. E., Lofgren, E., Lessler, J., & Cole, S. R. (2024) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) · doi:10.1093/jrsssa/qnae084 · Cited by 8
Marginal versus conditional causal effects
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The Charlson Index Is Insufficient to Control for Comorbidities in a National Trauma Registry
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Ananth, C. V., & Loh, W. W. (2022) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ede.0000000000001518 · Cited by 8
Maldonado, L. E., Farzan, S. F., Toledo‐Corral, C. M., Dunton, G. F., Habre, R., Eckel, S. P., Johnson, M. R., Yang, T., Grubbs, B. H., Lerner, D. L., et al. (2022) · Journal of Nutrition · doi:10.1093/jn/nxac209 · Cited by 12
Delaney, J. A., Platt, R. W., & Suissa, S. (2009) · European Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s10654-009-9341-z · Cited by 8
“This feature of the OR and hazard ratio, sometimes referred to as non-collapsibility, is often considered a disadvantage of the OR [17, 18].”
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Haight, T. J., & Jagust, W. (2012) · Annals of Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2012.09.004 · Cited by 8
Grøn, R., Gerds, T. A., & Andersen, P. K. (2015) · Statistics in Medicine · doi:10.1002/sim.6755 · Cited by 8
“This can be seen as an example of Simpson’s paradox and is also related to the non-collapsibility of a hazard ratio [23, 24].”
BackgroundA Causal Inference Framework for Cancer Cluster Investigations using Publicly Available Data
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Sherry, A. D., Passy, A. H., McCaw, Z. R., Jaoude, J. A., Lin, T. A., Kouzy, R., Miller, A. M., Kupferman, G. S., Beck, E. J., Msaouel, P., et al. (2024) · JCO Clinical Cancer Informatics · doi:10.1200/cci.24.00102 · Cited by 7
Graph Fairness via Authentic Counterfactuals: Tackling Structural and Causal Challenges
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“Despite these advancements, these methods often produce potentially unauthentic coun-terfactuals [9, 5].”
Berg, S. A., Rosa, S. L., Zhang, T., Pierorazio, P. M., Albiges, L. K., Beckermann, K. E., Campbell, M. T., Carlo, M. I., Coleman, K., George, D. J., et al. (2024) · Urologic Oncology Seminars and Original Investigations · doi:10.1016/j.urolonc.2024.10.022 · Cited by 8
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“For an illustration of non-collapsibility for logistic regression, see Robinson and Jewell (1991) for a general overview, see Greenland et al. (1999). Thus, in”
Metadata
- Authors
- Greenland, S., Pearl, J., & Robins, J. M.
- Venue
- Statistical Science
- Publisher
- Institute of Mathematical Statistics
- Published
- 1999-02-01
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 29-46
- ISSN
- 0883-4237 (ISSN-L)
- 2168-8745
- OpenAlex
- W1996016456
- Cited by
- 933
- References
- 108
- Citations by year
- 2026: 43 · 2025: 47 · 2024: 61 · 2023: 53 · 2022: 65 · 2021: 75 · 2020: 48 · 2019: 40 · 2018: 40 · 2017: 36 · 2016: 35 · 2015: 44 · 2014: 52 · 2013: 47 · 2012: 47
- FWCI
- 13.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Statistical Science (publishedVersion)
- Project Euclid (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History and Philosophy of Science › Philosophy of Biology and Scientific Explanation
- Keywords
- confounding, collapsibility, counterfactual modeling, causal inference, exchangeability, causal effects, observational studies
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