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Cited by 136Family Dynamics and RelationshipsDemographic Trends and Gender PreferencesReproductive Health and Contraception

Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries

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Hellstrand, Julia, Nisén, Jessica, Miranda, Vitor, Fallesen, Peter, Dommermuth, Lars, Myrskylä, Mikko·2021·Demography
DOI 10.1215/00703370-9373618
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Abstract

With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980–2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised.

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  • Over the recent past, fertility has begun to dip in the Scandinavian countries although family policies and social norms support gender equity.

    “Notably, over the recent past, fertility has begun to dip in the Scandinavian countries although family policies and social norms support gender equity (e.g., Hellstrand et al. 2021).”

    From Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences (2024) · cites this paper as Hellstrand et al. 2021

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Authors
Hellstrand, J., Nisén, J., Miranda, V., Fallesen, P., Dommermuth, L., & Myrskylä, M.
Affiliations
  • University of Helsinki (FI)
  • University of Turku (FI)
  • Department of Population and Welfare, Statistics Sweden, Stockholm, Sweden
  • Stockholm University (SE)
  • Statistics Norway (NO)
Corresponding author
Hellstrand, Julia
ORCID
Venue
Demography
Publisher
Duke University Press
Published
2021-07-12
Volume
58
Issue
4
Pages
1373-1399
ISSN
  • 0070-3370 (ISSN-L)
  • 1533-7790
DOI
10.1215/00703370-9373618
OpenAlex
W3005636926
Cited by
136
References
87
Citations by year
2026: 22 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 36 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 3
FWCI
31.91
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
cc-by-nc-nd
Locations
  • Demography (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • UTUPub (University of Turku) (submittedVersion)
  • Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja (submittedVersion)
  • NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Funders
  • Academy of Finland (320 162, 294861, 332863)
  • Forskningsrådet om Hälsa, Arbetsliv och Välfärd (07099, 2016-07099)
  • Rockwool Fonden
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
  • Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Reproductive Health and Contraception
Keywords
cohort fertility, fertility decline, Nordic countries, tempo effects, quantum effects, first birth, fertility prediction, gender equality
MeSH terms
Birth Rate, Child, Denmark, Fertility, Finland, Humans, Iceland, Norway, Scandinavian and Nordic Countries, Sweden, Cohort Studies

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