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The role of the basic state in the ENSO–monsoon relationship and implications for predictability
Open accessAbstract
The impact of systematic model errors on a coupled simulation of the Asian summer monsoon and its interannual variability is studied. Although the mean monsoon climate is reasonably well captured, systematic errors in the equatorial Pacific mean that the monsoon–ENSO teleconnection is rather poorly represented in the general-circulation model. A system of ocean-surface heat flux adjustments is implemented in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans in order to reduce the systematic biases. In this version of the general-circulation model, the monsoon–ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly the lag–lead relationships in which weak monsoons precede the peak of El Niño. In part this is related to changes in the characteristics of El Niño, which has a more realistic evolution in its developing phase. A stronger ENSO amplitude in the new model version also feeds back to further strengthen the teleconnection. These results have important implications for the use of coupled models for seasonal prediction of systems such as the monsoon, and suggest that some form of flux correction may have significant benefits where model systematic error compromises important teleconnections and modes of interannual variability. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society
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“HadCM3 has been shown to perform skilfully in reproducing these monsoons and climate across Asia (Inness and Slingo 2003;Turner et al. 2005).”
From Climate Change and the Rise of the Central Asian Silk Roads (2019) · cites this paper as Turner et al. 2005
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“HadCM3 has previously been shown not to represent the teleconnections between ENSO and the monsoon systems (Turner et al. 2005), which may explain some of this decoupling.”
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Cited by
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Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon
Turner, A. G., & Annamalai, H. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1495 · Cited by 1,109
Self-citationWaßmann, R., Jagadish, S. V. K., Sumfleth, K., Pathak, H. N., Howell, G., Ismail, A. M., Serraj, R., Redoña, E. D., Singh, R. K., & Heuer, S. (2009) · Advances in agronomy · doi:10.1016/s0065-2113(09)01003-7 · Cited by 567
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Metadata
- Authors
- Turner, A. G., Inness, P. M., & Slingo, J. M.
- Affiliations
- University of Reading (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Turner, A. G.
- Venue
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2005-04-01
- Volume
- 131
- Issue
- 607
- Pages
- 781-804
- ISSN
- 0035-9009 (ISSN-L)
- 1477-870X
- OpenAlex
- W2100244618
- Cited by
- 139
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 6.66
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Locations
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (publishedVersion)
- CentAUR (University of Reading) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- ENSO, Asian summer monsoon, systematic model errors, coupled climate model, interannual variability, El Niño, seasonal forecasting, model bias correction
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