Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity
Open accessAbstract
We consider the distribution of economic activity within a country in light of three leading theories—increasing returns, random growth, and locational fundamentals. To do so, we examine the distribution of regional population in Japan from the Stone Age to the modern era. We also consider the Allied bombing of Japanese cities in WWII as a shock to relative city sizes. Our results support a hybrid theory in which locational fundamentals establish the spatial pattern of relative regional densities, but increasing returns help to determine the degree of spatial differentiation. Long-run city size is robust even to large temporary shocks.
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The estimated output losses are consistent with a broader body of evidence emphasizing path dependence in economic development following large shocks.
“The estimated output losses are also consistent with a broader body of evidence emphasizing path dependence in economic development following large shocks (Davis and Weinstein, 2002, Brakman et. al. 2004, Bleakley and Lin 2012).”
From Confrontation with the West and Long-Run Economic and Institutional Outcomes: Evidence from Iran (2026) · cites this paper as Davis and Weinstein, 2002
In “E. Impact of the Shocks: Temporary or Permanent?”, the paper reports that Japanese cities recovered their former relative sizes after wartime bombing and that the shocks’ effects vanished within twenty years. The Policy section says these results imply greater spatial stability than theories of path dependence and critical break points would suggest. The paper examines city populations, not output losses, and its finding runs contrary to the claimed post-shock path dependence. (LLM, conf=0.90)
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- Authors
- Davis, D. R., & Weinstein, D. E.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2002-11-01
- Volume
- 92
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 1269-1289
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3121790036
- Cited by
- 1,052
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 40 · 2025: 43 · 2024: 53 · 2023: 96 · 2022: 48 · 2021: 63 · 2020: 50 · 2019: 53 · 2018: 52 · 2017: 48 · 2016: 41 · 2015: 55 · 2014: 62 · 2013: 60 · 2012: 60
- FWCI
- 20.76
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Columbia Academic Commons (Columbia University)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Regional Economics and Spatial Analysis
- Social Sciences › Urban Studies › Global Urban Networks and Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Regional Economic and Spatial Analysis
- Keywords
- spatial distribution of economic activity, regional population, city size, increasing returns, random growth, spatial differentiation, Allied bombing, World War II, population shocks, Japan
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