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Cited by 889Sports Analytics and PerformanceForecasting Techniques and ApplicationsDecision-Making and Behavioral Economics

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 17 of the 89 references it cites were found in a registry or an index, and 72 are not checked yet.

Prediction Markets

Open access
Wolfers, Justin, Zitzewitz, Eric·2004·Journal of Economic Perspectives
DOI 10.1257/0895330041371321
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Abstract

We analyze the extent to which simple markets can be used to aggregate disperse information into efficient forecasts of uncertain future events. Drawing together data from a range of prediction contexts, we show that market-generated forecasts are typically fairly accurate, and that they outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Carefully designed contracts can yield insight into the market's expectations about probabilities, means and medians, and also uncertainty about these parameters. Moreover, conditional markets can effectively reveal the market's beliefs about regression coefficients, although we still have the usual problem of disentangling correlation from causation. We discuss a number of market design issues and highlight domains in which prediction markets are most likely to be useful.

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  1. Athanasoulis Stefano, 1999, Economic Policy Review., 5, 21

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Metadata

Authors
Wolfers, J., & Zitzewitz, E.
Affiliations
  • National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
  • Stanford University (US)
ORCID
Wolfers, Justin
Venue
Journal of Economic Perspectives
Publisher
American Economic Association
Published
2004-05-01
Volume
18
Issue
2
Pages
107-126
ISSN
0895-3309 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1257/0895330041371321
OpenAlex
W4256232447
Cited by
889
References
17
Citations by year
2026: 85 · 2025: 36 · 2024: 33 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 44 · 2021: 31 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 33 · 2018: 42 · 2017: 39 · 2016: 25 · 2015: 44 · 2014: 42 · 2013: 56 · 2012: 67
FWCI
43.69
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • The Journal of Economic Perspectives (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Keywords
prediction markets, information aggregation, forecast accuracy, market design, regression coefficients, correlation versus causation, probability elicitation

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