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Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space
Open accessAbstract
We develop a statistical framework to use satellite data on night lights to augment official income growth measures. For countries with poor national income accounts, the optimal estimate of growth is a composite with roughly equal weights on conventionally measured growth and growth predicted from lights. Our estimates differ from official data by up to three percentage points annually. Using lights, empirical analyses of growth need no longer use countries as the unit of analysis; we can measure growth for sub- and supranational regions. We show, for example, that coastal areas in sub-Saharan Africa are growing slower than the hinterland. (JEL E01, E23, O11, 047, 057)
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“A number of recent papers have argued that nighttime light intensity measured by weather satellites is a good proxy for GDP.”
From Economic reforms and industrial policy in a panel of Chinese cities (2016) · cites this paper as Henderson et al. (2012)
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Metadata
- Authors
- Henderson, J. V., Storeygard, A., & Weil, D. N.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2012-04-01
- Volume
- 102
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 994-1028
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4108272
- OpenAlex
- W3125333792
- Cited by
- 2,596
- References
- 22
- Citations by year
- 2026: 268 · 2025: 246 · 2024: 225 · 2023: 252 · 2022: 295 · 2021: 262 · 2020: 216 · 2019: 222 · 2018: 161 · 2017: 114 · 2016: 102 · 2015: 89 · 2014: 71 · 2013: 37 · 2012: 15
- FWCI
- 56.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24HD041020, T32HD007338)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Impact of Light on Environment and Health
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Development
- Keywords
- economic growth measurement, nighttime lights, satellite data, GDP growth, income growth, national accounts, measurement error, regional economic growth, sub-Saharan Africa, malaria, primate city, coastal areas
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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