Economic reforms and industrial policy in a panel of Chinese cities

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Nighttime light intensity measured by weather satellites is a good proxy for GDP.

“A number of recent papers have argued that nighttime light intensity measured by weather satellites is a good proxy for GDP.”

• cites Elvidge et al. (1997) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Henderson et al. (2012) sourcePartly supported

  The Conclusion describes satellite night lights as a useful proxy for economic activity, supporting the claim’s general point. But Section 3 says the analysis is restricted to growth because light intensity can vary for the same GDP; the paper supports lights as a proxy for GDP growth, not an unqualified proxy for GDP levels. No page number is available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
• cites Chen and Nordhaus (2011) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Subsidy competition is also a concern in other countries.

“Such competition is also a concern in other countries.See for exampleOssa (2015) for a general equilibrium analysis of subsidy competition in the U.S.”

• cites Ossa (2015) sourceSupported

May combine two claims.

The cumulative effect of the SEZ policy treatment increases over time and flattens out after about ten years.

“We …nd an increasing cumulative e¤ect of the policy treatment that ‡attens out after about ten years”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Cities hosting a SEZ tended to have more universities relative to other cities.

“They also tended to have more universities relative to other cities.”

The quote only partly states this claim.

The establishment of a state-level SEZ is associated with an increase in the level of GDP of about 20% in the long term.

“We …nd that the establishment of a state-level SEZ is associated with an increase in the level of GDP of about 20%.”

• Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · hedged

  “the long-term e¤ect of a SEZ is estimated to be a di¤erential increase of about 20% in the GDP level.”

May combine two claims.

The standard errors are large and the effects are estimated imprecisely.

“The standard errors are large and the e¤ects are estimated imprecisely.”

May combine two claims.

The post-reform trend is positive but insignificant in the full sample and positive and significant in the inland sample.

“The post-reform trend, ^ 3 ; is positive but insigni…cant in the full sample and positive and signi…cant in the inland sample.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The size of the event-study effect is comparable to that in the previous section.

“The size of the e¤ect is comparable to that in the previous section.”

May combine two claims.

When allowing a structural break in the trend of reformed cities, the estimated coefficient on the reform indicator remains almost unchanged in the full sample and increases in the restricted sample.

“Interestingly, the estimated coe¢cient ^ 1 remains almost unchanged in the full sample and increases in the restricted sample.”

May combine two claims.

There is a break in the GDP path a year after the reform, followed by a temporarily higher growth rate that levels off after about ten years.

“In particular, there is a break in the GDP path a year after the reform, followed by a temporarily higher growth rate that levels o¤ after about ten years.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Standard errors increase nineteen years after the establishment of the zone because of a significant drop in the number of observations.

“Note that the standard errors increase nineteen years after the establishment of the zone (corresponding to the vertical line added to each …gure).This is due to a signi…cant drop in the number of observations, since many cities were reformed in 1991 and 1992.”

May combine two claims.

In the inland sample, the coefficient of interest is positive and significant, and even larger than in the full sample.

“The coe¢cient of interest is positive and signi…cant, and even larger than in the full sample.”

May combine two claims.

In Table 6 Panel A, the coefficients of interest are similar to Table 3 in the full sample and larger in the inland sample, and in both cases they remain highly significant.

“The coe¢cients of interest are similar to Table 3 in the full sample and larger in the inland sample.In both cases, they remain highly signi…cant.”

May combine two claims.

In the restricted inland sample, the qualitative pattern and point estimates are similar, although the estimation is less precise.

“The qualitative pattern and the point estimates are similar, although the estimation is less precise.”

May combine two claims.

Cities hosting a SEZ were more populated and had a higher initial development measured by GDP per capita than other cities.

“since Table 2 shows that cities hosting a SEZ were more populated and had a higher initial development measured by GDP per capita than other cities.”

May combine two claims.

The treatment effect in the full sample continues to be positive and significant in columns (1)-(3).

“The treatment e¤ect in the full sample continues to be positive and signi…cant (columns (1)-( 3)).”

May combine two claims.

The estimated coefficient of the pre-reform trend decreases and becomes insignificant in both samples.

“Moreover, the estimated coe¢cient of the pre-reform trend, ^ 2 , decreases and becomes insigni…cant in both samples.”

May combine two claims.

The point estimates on ETDZ and HIDZ in the inland sample are relatively similar to the full sample, but less precisely estimated.

“The point estimates on ETDZ and HIDZ in the inland sample are relatively similar to the full sample, but less precisely estimated.”

May combine two claims.

In the inland sample, the estimate is positive and significant in column (4), and positive but insignificant in columns (5)-(6).

“In the inland sample the estimate is positive and signi…cant in column (4), and it is positive but insigni…cant in columns (5)-(6).”

May combine two claims.

In column (5), the indicators for the reform year and for one year before the reform are marginally significant but negative.

“In column (5) the indicators for the reform year and for one year before the reform are marginally signi…cant but negative.”

May combine two claims.

OtherTypes are mostly significant and have particularly large estimates in the inland sample.

“while OtherTypes are mostly signi…cant and have particularly large estimates in the inland sample.”

May combine two claims.

The coefficient on the reform indicator continues to be highly significant in the full sample, although much of the effect is now absorbed by the trend.

“Interestingly, the coe¢cient ^ 1 continues to be highly signi…cant in the full sample, although much of the e¤ect is now absorbed by the trend.”

May combine two claims.

The estimated effect of the SEZ on GDP decreases to about 11.6% but remains highly significant when controlling for log land area.

“The estimated e¤ect of the SEZ decreases to about 11.6% but remains highly signi…cant.”

May combine two claims.

HIDZ display a concave pattern, although the effect appears to decline after lag 13.

“The second panel shows that HIDZ also display a concave pattern, although the e¤ect appears to decline after lag 13.”

May combine two claims.

ETDZ and HIDZ individually have a significant effect on the level of GDP.

“ETDZ and HIDZ individually appear to have a signi…cant e¤ect on the level of GDP.”

May combine two claims.

In the quadratic specification, the estimated coefficient on the post-reform trend is positive and the estimated coefficient on its square is negative.

“In both cases, we …nd that ^ 3 > 0 and ^ 4 < 0; implying that the SEZ are associated with an acceleration of growth in the immediate post-reform years, but that the acceleration dies o¤ in subsequent years.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Increases in land area are positively associated with aggregate GDP.

“Increases in land area appear to be positively associated with aggregate GDP.”

May combine two claims.

The coefficients on the post-reform trend and its square are both individually and jointly statistically significant in the full sample, while the square term is negative but insignificant in the inland sample.

“The coe¢cients are both individually and jointly statistically signi…cant in the full sample, while the square term is negative but insigni…cant in the inland sample.”

May combine two claims.

SEZ have no significant effect on population and the human capital measure in the China City Statistical Yearbook data.

“Columns (3)-( 4) and ( 7)-( 8) suggest that the SEZ have no signi…cant e¤ect on population and the human capital measure in the China City Statistical Yearbook data.”

May combine two claims.

Point estimates on spans for the neighboring zone generally become significant at the 5% level when a 150 minutes driving time radius is used, but not (or only marginally so) when a 150 kilometer radius is used.

“The point estimates on the spans for the neighboring zone generally become signi…cant at the 5% level when a 150 minutes driving time radius is used, but not (or only marginally so) when a 150 kilometer radius is used.”

May combine two claims.

Spillovers in TFP are in all cases positive and mostly significant.

“Appendix Table A8 shows that the spillovers in TFP are in all cases positive and mostly signi…cant.”

May combine two claims.

There appears to be some concavity in the effect on TFP as well, although less clearly and not statistically significant in the individual years.

“There appears to be some concavity in the e¤ect on TFP as well, although less clearly and not statistically signi…cant in the individual years.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Aggregate technology is described by a Cobb-Douglas production function in physical capital and efficiency units of labor.

May combine two claims.

Most ring indicators have a positive coefficient, some statistically significant; only negative coefficients are observed for geodesic distance beyond 50 kilometers, but they are small and insignificant; for all other distance measures, positive effects tend to be larger and more significant for closer zones.

“Most of the indicators have a positive coe¢cient, and in some cases they are statistically signi…cant.We only observe negative coe¢cients for the geodesic distance beyond 50 kilometers, but the estimates are relatively small and insigni…cant.For all other distance measures, we …nd positive e¤ects that tend to be larger and more signi…cant for zones that are closer.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Spillovers, either positive or negative, are decreasing in distance from SEZ.

May combine two claims.

The coefficients on exposure to other SEZ are always positive but not significant.

“The coe¢cients on exposure are always positive but not signi…cant.”

May combine two claims.

The effects on GDP per capita and on the capital-labor ratio are concave over time.

“The e¤ects on GDP per capita and on the capital-labor ratio are concave over time.”

May combine two claims.

Both the GDP per capita and capital-labor ratio paths feature a break one year after the reform.

“Both paths feature a break one year after the reform.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Imposing constant returns to scale obtains elasticities of 0.35 and 0.65.

“In columns (2) and ( 5), we impose constant returns to scale, obtaining elasticities of 0:35 and 0:65:”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Aggregate technology is described by a Cobb-Douglas production function in physical capital and efficiency units of labor.

May combine two claims.

Human capital appears to be higher in cities with SEZ, with some effects already detected prior to the reform.

“Human capital appears to be higher in cities with SEZ (in this case, some e¤ects are already detected prior to the reform).”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Aggregate technology is described by a Cobb-Douglas production function in physical capital and efficiency units of labor.

May combine two claims.

All estimates for the radius and topography-based distance measures are positive, although the estimated coefficients are sometimes insignificant.

“All estimates are positive, although the estimated coe¢cients are sometimes insigni…cant.”

May combine two claims.

Both the population and human capital effects are positive and significant when restricting the analysis to more precise population data from the decennial census.

“However, both e¤ects are positive and signi…cant when one restricts the analysis to more precise population data from the decennial census, as is shown in panel B in columns (2)-( 3) and ( 5)-( 6).”

May combine two claims.

The effects of SEZ on GDP per capita and on the capital-labor ratio become statistically significant around seven years after the reform.

“In particular, the e¤ects of SEZ on GDP per capita and on the capital-labor ratio become statistically signi…cant around seven years after the reform.”

May combine two claims.

The effect of SEZ on population in nearby cities is positive, but usually not significant.

“Appendix Table A9 shows that the e¤ect of SEZ on population in nearby cities is positive, but usually not signi…cant.”

May combine two claims.

The establishment of SEZ is associated with an increase in the capital-labor ratio by 13.1% in the full sample and 33.9% in the inland sample, both effects being highly significant.

“Columns (2) and ( 6) show that the establishment of SEZ is associated with an increase in the capital-labor ratio by 13.1% and 33.9% for the full and inland sample, respectively, both e¤ects being highly signi…cant.”

May combine two claims.

The spillover effect on neighboring cities for FDI is positive but insignificant.

“The spillover e¤ect on neighboring cities is positive but insigni…cant.”

May combine two claims.

Population increases by 9.7% in the full sample and 11.1% in the inland sample after the establishment of a SEZ.

“Population increases by 9.7% and 11.1% after the establishment of a SEZ in the full and the inland sample, respectively,”

May combine two claims.

In the inland sample, investment spillovers tend to be more significant and are always positive.

“In the inland sample (columns (5)-( 8)), the spillovers tend to be more signi…cant and are always positive (since the e¤ect of distance is negative).”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The allocation of SEZ in inland cities was driven by rigidly selected criteria.

May combine two claims.

The measure of market access shows a negative estimate in the full sample and a positive estimate in the inland sample.

“The measure of market access shows a negative estimate in the full sample and a positive estimate in the inland sample.”

May combine two claims.

The average years of schooling of the population above 6 increase by 0.18 years in the full sample and 0.36 years in the inland sample.

“while the average years of schooling of the population above 6 increase by 0.18 years in the full sample and 0.36 years in the inland sample.”

May combine two claims.

The estimated effects on TFP in the inland sample are positive but insignificant, except in column (6), where TFP is estimated separately for pre- and post-1995 sub-samples.

“As shown in columns ( 4)-( 6), the estimated e¤ects on TFP in the inland sample are positive but insigni…cant, except in column (6), where TFP is estimated separately for pre-and post-1995 sub-samples.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Aggregate technology is described by a Cobb-Douglas production function in physical capital and efficiency units of labor.

May combine two claims.

The effect of the own zone remains large and significant in all specifications.

“Interestingly, the e¤ect of the own zone remains large and signi…cant in all speci…cations.”

May combine two claims.

The point estimate for the inland sample is similar in magnitude, albeit statistically insignificant.

“The point estimate for the inland sample is similar in magnitude, albeit statistically insigni…cant.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The allocation of SEZ in inland cities was driven by rigidly selected criteria.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing).

In Table 5, province-level SEZ has no statistically significant coefficient on GDP in the full sample.

“Province-level SEZ | -0.00166 | -0.00112 | -0.00200 | -0.000637 | -0.0106 | -0.00913 | -0.0135 | -0.0143 |”

May combine two claims.

The pattern in the full sample is relatively similar for early reformers and late reformers, but the coefficients are less precisely estimated for the late reformers.

“We see that the pattern in the full sample is relatively similar for early reformers (column (2)) and late reformers (column (3)), but the coe¢cients are less precisely estimated for the late reformers.”

May combine two claims.

In the inland sample, the estimate is 32.7%, which is higher than the baseline result.

“In the inland sample, the estimate is 32.7%, which is higher than our baseline result.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The allocation of SEZ in inland cities was driven by rigidly selected criteria.

May combine two claims.

In the full sample there is evidence for interaction effects with population and population density, but the main effect remains positive and significant.

“In the full sample there is evidence for interaction e¤ects with population and population density, but the main e¤ect remains positive and signi…cant.”

May combine two claims.

SEZ have a positive effect on both GDP and population, but the effect on GDP is larger than the effect on population.

“Our results suggest that SEZ have a positive e¤ect on both GDP and population, but the e¤ect on GDP is larger than the e¤ect on population.”

May combine two claims.

If the census is correct, the population growth rate is overestimated by an annual 24 basis points in non-reforming cities, and underestimated by 35 basis points in reforming cities in the city statistics.

“In particular, if the census is correct, then the population growth rate is overestimated by an annual 24 basis points in non-reforming cities, and underestimated by 35 basis points in reforming cities in the city statistics.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The population census records the entire resident population at the city level.

May combine two claims.

Early and late reformers both show positive point estimates, but the effect of the early reformers is larger and more precisely estimated.

“Early and late reformers both show positive point estimates, but the e¤ect of the early reformers is larger and more precisely estimated.”

May combine two claims.

While the estimate for the true reform is always significant at 5%, the placebo reforms are significant in only 33% of the cases.

“While the estimate for the true reform is always signi…cant at 5%, the placebo reforms are signi…cant in only 33% of the cases.”

May combine two claims.

In the inland sample, the coefficients on the trend are similar but again less precisely estimated for late reformers.

“In the inland sample (columns (5)-( 6)) we observe that the coe¢cients on the trend are similar but again less precisely estimated for late reformers.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The allocation of SEZ in inland cities was driven by rigidly selected criteria.

May combine two claims.

The effect of the reform remains positive and highly significant in both samples.

“The e¤ect of the reform remains positive and highly signi…cant in both samples.”

May combine two claims.

In Table 5, state-level SEZ has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on GDP in the full sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.116*** | 0.0588** | 0.0511* | | 0.175*** | 0.0259 | 0.0738 | |”

May combine two claims.

This is true for both the full sample and the inland sample, although the difference is smaller in the inland sample.

“This is true for both the full sample and the inland sample, although the di¤erence is smaller in the inland sample.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The allocation of SEZ in inland cities was driven by rigidly selected criteria.

May combine two claims.

The reform effect estimated with the earlier GDP subsample is a 16.8% increase in the level of GDP in the full sample, and the estimated coefficient is highly significant.

“The reform e¤ect estimated with this subsample is a 16.8% increase in the level of GDP in the full sample, and the estimated coe¢cient is highly signi…cant.”

May combine two claims.

In the inland sample interaction effects are stronger and the main effect is reduced when including the interaction with population and population density.

“In the inland sample the interaction e¤ects are stronger and the main e¤ect is reduced when including the interaction with population and population density.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The allocation of SEZ in inland cities was driven by rigidly selected criteria.

The quote only partly states this claim.

Estimates are also positive for TFP with city-land area fixed effects.

“Columns (3) -(4) show that the estimates are also positive for TFP.”

May combine two claims.

In no case are the absolute t values and the R-squared of the placebo regressions larger than those of the true reform.

“We …nd that in no case are the absolute t values and the R-squared of the placebo regressions larger than those of the true reform.”

May combine two claims.

Point estimates with city-land area fixed effects are similar to Table 3 both in the full sample and the inland sample.

“Columns (1) -(2) for GDP show that the point estimates are similar to Table 3 both in the full sample and the inland sample.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The allocation of SEZ in inland cities was driven by rigidly selected criteria.

May combine two claims.

In the inland sample the TFP estimate is positive but lower than in column (4) of Table 7 (Panel C) and marginally insignificant.

“In the inland sample the estimate is also positive but lower than in column (4) of Table 7 (Panel C) and marginally insigni…cant.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The allocation of SEZ in inland cities was driven by rigidly selected criteria.

May combine two claims.

A panel regression of prices on the reform indicator controlling for city and province-year fixed effects yields an estimate of -0.008 and is insignificant.

“The estimate is -0.008 and insigni…cant.”

May combine two claims.

In Table 9, state-level SEZ has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on log light intensity in the full sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.0501** | 0.0460 | 0.157*** | 0.0389 |”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In Table 3, province-level SEZ has no statistically significant coefficient on log GDP per capita in the inland sample.

“Province-level SEZ | 0.0217 | -0.00166 | -0.0113 | 0.0209 | -0.0106 | -0.00580 |”

May combine two claims.

In Table 3, state-level SEZ has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on log GDP per capita in the full sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.156*** 0.116*** 0.0927*** 0.213*** 0.175*** 0.130** |”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing).

In Table 7 Panel A, state-level SEZ has no statistically significant coefficient on log population (L) in the full sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.0927*** 0.131*** | 0.0453 | 0.00295 | 0.130** 0.339*** | 0.0599 | 0.00278 | | | |”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The results are similar for a radius of 100.

“The results are similar for a radius of 100.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing).

In Table 7 Panel A, state-level SEZ has no statistically significant coefficient on human capital (h) in the full sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.0927*** 0.131*** | 0.0453 | 0.00295 | 0.130** 0.339*** | 0.0599 | 0.00278 | | | |”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

This is the case in 36% of the draws.

“This is the case in 36% of the draws.”

May combine two claims.

The mean estimate of the placebo reform is 0.0003, and is never significant and higher than the one of the true reform.

“The mean estimate of the placebo reform is 0.0003, and is never signi…cant and higher than the one of the true reform.”

May combine two claims.

The coefficients vary more when using a variety of different radii between 20 and 900 km, but we never find significant negative spillover effects.

“The coe¢cients vary more when we use a variety of di¤erent radii between 20 and 900 km, but we never …nd signi…cant negative spillover e¤ects.”

May combine two claims.

For 1996-2010, cities with a SEZ had an average yearly inflation rate of 1.8%, while cities without a SEZ had an average of 2.3%.

“For this period, cities with a SEZ had an average yearly in ‡ation rate of 1.8%, while cities without a SEZ had an average of 2.3%.”

May combine two claims.

When including indicators for four and five years prior to the reform, these indicators are marginally significant, but identified by only 27 observations.

“When we include also indicators for four and …ve years prior to the reform, these indicators are marginally signi…cant, but identi…ed by only 27 observations.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In Table 3, province-level SEZ has no statistically significant coefficient on log GDP in the full sample.

“Province-level SEZ | 0.0217 | -0.00166 | -0.0113 | 0.0209 | -0.0106 | -0.00580 |”

May combine two claims.

In Table 7 Panel C, state-level SEZ has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on TFP in the full sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.0617** | | 0.0553** 0.137*** | 0.0631 | | 0.0471 | 0.189*** |”

May combine two claims.

In Table 3, state-level SEZ has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on log GDP in the inland sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.156*** 0.116*** 0.0927*** 0.213*** 0.175*** 0.130** |”

May combine two claims.

In Table 7 Panel A, state-level SEZ has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on log GDP per capita (Y/L) in the full sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.0927*** 0.131*** | 0.0453 | 0.00295 | 0.130** 0.339*** | 0.0599 | 0.00278 | | | |”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In Table 5, the squared post-reform trend (state-level) has a negative and statistically significant coefficient on GDP in the full sample.

“Sq. post-reform trend (state-level) | | | | -0.000558* | | | | -0.000986 |”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In Table 9, state-level SEZ has no statistically significant coefficient on log light intensity in the inland sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.0501** | 0.0460 | 0.157*** | 0.0389 |”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In Table 3, province-level SEZ has no statistically significant coefficient on log GDP in the inland sample.

“Province-level SEZ | 0.0217 | -0.00166 | -0.0113 | 0.0209 | -0.0106 | -0.00580 |”

May combine two claims.

In Table 7 Panel A, state-level SEZ has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on log capital-labor ratio (K/L) in the full sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.0927*** 0.131*** | 0.0453 | 0.00295 | 0.130** 0.339*** | 0.0599 | 0.00278 | | | |”

May combine two claims.

In Table 7 Panel B, state-level SEZ has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on average schooling in the full sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.141*** 0.0965*** 0.182*** | 0.175** | 0.111*** 0.360*** |”

May combine two claims.

In Table 9, state-level SEZ has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on log electricity consumption in the full sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.0501** | 0.0460 | 0.157*** | 0.0389 |”

May combine two claims.

In inland reformers, the elasticity of GDP with respect to electricity is very low (0.02) and statistically insignificant.

“The correlation is high and signi…cant in all subsamples except for that of inland reformers, where the elasticity of GDP with respect to electricity is very low (0.02) and statistically insigni…cant.”

May combine two claims.

In Table 7 Panel B, state-level SEZ has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on log population in the full sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.141*** 0.0965*** 0.182*** | 0.175** | 0.111*** 0.360*** |”

May combine two claims.

In Table 7 Panel B, state-level SEZ has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on log GDP per capita in the full sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.141*** 0.0965*** 0.182*** | 0.175** | 0.111*** 0.360*** |”

May combine two claims.

In Table 5, the time trend of reformers (state-level) has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on GDP in the full sample.

“Time trend of reformers (state-level) | | 0.00711*** | 0.00410 | 0.00433 | | 0.0130** | -0.0122 | -0.0116 |”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Including the year of the reform in the dummy does not alter the baseline results significantly.

“Note that including the year of the reform in the dummy does not alter the baseline results signi…cantly.”

May combine two claims.

In Table 3, state-level SEZ has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on log GDP in the full sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.156*** 0.116*** 0.0927*** 0.213*** 0.175*** 0.130** |”

May combine two claims.

In Table 6, state-level SEZ has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on log GDP when controlling for differential trends.

“State-level SEZ | 0.119*** 0.111*** 0.0936*** 0.257*** 0.238*** 0.257*** |”

May combine two claims.

In Table 3, state-level SEZ has a positive and statistically significant coefficient on log GDP per capita in the inland sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.156*** 0.116*** 0.0927*** 0.213*** 0.175*** 0.130** |”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In Table 9, state-level SEZ has no statistically significant coefficient on log electricity consumption in the inland sample.

“State-level SEZ | 0.0501** | 0.0460 | 0.157*** | 0.0389 |”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In an earlier version, results for GDP per capita without controlling for population are qualitatively similar to those in Table 3.

“In an earlier version, we also show results for GDP per capita if one does not control for population.The results are qualitatively similar to those shown in Table3.”

May combine two claims.

Time-invariant differences in price levels across cities and time-varying inflation differences across provinces are absorbed by city and province time fixed effects.

“Time-invariant di¤erences in price levels across cities and time-varying in ‡ation di¤erences across provinces are absorbed, respectively, by city and province time …xed e¤ects.”

The quote only partly states this claim.

The results using light intensity and electricity consumption confirm robust significant effects of SEZ.

“we complement our analysis with alternative proxies of GDP that do not depend on prices: light intensity measured by satellites and electricity consumption.”

• Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · boosted

  “The results con…rm the existence of robust signi…cant e¤ects of SEZ.”

May combine two claims.

The finding is confirmed with alternative specifications and in a sub-sample of inland provinces, where the selection of cities to host the zones was based on administrative criteria.

“This …nding is con…rmed with alternative speci…cations and in a sub-sample of inland provinces, where the selection of cities to host the zones was based on administrative criteria.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The selection of zones in inland provinces was largely based on a rigid administrative criterion, i.e., being a provincial capital.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The event-study model imposes no functional form restrictions on post- and pre-reform effects.

“In this section, we perform a non-parametric analysis of the e¤ects of the reform with the aid of a model that imposes no functional form restrictions on post-(and pre-) reform e¤ects.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The onset of a SEZ can be interpreted as a policy shock that reduces firms' costs in the treated locations.

“Their framework can be applied to our environment by interpreting the onset of a SEZ as a policy shock that reduces …rms' costs in the treated locations.”

May combine two claims.

The selection of treated cities was based on an administrative criterion, allowing better control for features making capital cities different from the control group.

“Since the selection of treated cities was based on an administrative criterion (rather than on unknown, possibly heterogeneous criteria), we can better control for features making capital cities di¤erent from the control group.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The assignment of cities to treatment and control groups may not be random.

“First, the assignment of cities to treatment and control groups may not be random.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

In the new spatial equilibrium, total factor productivity, the stock of capital and labor, and ultimately GDP are permanently higher in the SEZ.

“In the new spatial equilibrium, total factor productivity, the stock of capital and labor, and ultimately the GDP are permanently higher in the SEZ.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The event-study specification confirms the results of the previous section.

“This speci…cation con…rms the results of the previous section.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

An increase in population size due, for example, to immigration has a negative effect on labor productivity.

“The coe¢cient on population size is negative, suggesting that an increase in the population size due, e.g., to immigration, has a negative e¤ect on labor productivity.”

May combine two claims.

The results are robust to using lagged variables and alternative ways of controlling for border changes.

“The results are robust to using lagged variables and alternative ways of controlling for border changes.”

May combine two claims.

SEZ are associated with an acceleration of growth in the immediate post-reform years, but the acceleration dies off in subsequent years.

“In both cases, we …nd that ^ 3 > 0 and ^ 4 < 0; implying that the SEZ are associated with an acceleration of growth in the immediate post-reform years, but that the acceleration dies o¤ in subsequent years.”

May combine two claims.

The earliest zones introduced before 1989 are either excluded or exhibit no time-variation in the policy indicators in the sample period, so they play no role in the identification of the treatment effect.

“Note also that the earliest zones (for example the CSEZ) introduced before 1989, likely the most selected group, are either excluded or exhibit no time-variation in the policy indicators in our sample period.Thus, they play no role in the identi…cation of the treatment e¤ect.”

May combine two claims.

All spillover variables are time-varying because they depend on the introduction of SEZ in other cities, and identification hinges on this time variation.

“It is important to note that all of these variables are time-varying because they depend on the introduction of SEZ in other cities.Thus, identi…cation hinges on this time variation.”

May combine two claims.

Despite the higher population, GDP per capita increases after the introduction of a SEZ because GDP increases more than population.

“Despite the higher population, GDP per capita increases after the introduction of a SEZ because GDP increases more than population.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The final spillover measure is inspired by Briant et al. (2015) and mimics the idea of a market access measure.

“Our …nal spillover measure is inspired by Briant et al. (2015) and mimics the idea of a market access measure such as 47”

• cites Briant et al. (2015) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The existing literature on spillover effects on non-treated locations is ambiguous.

“The existing literature on spillover e¤ects on non-treated locations is ambiguous (see Neumark and Simpson (2015) for an overview of the evidence).”

• cites Neumark and Simpson (2015)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Clustering standard errors by province and year of reform leaves baseline results essentially unchanged, and in some cases statistical significance is even strengthened.

“The baseline results (not shown but available upon request) are essentially unchanged, and in some cases the statistical signi…cance of the coe¢cients of interest is even strengthened.”

May combine two claims.

Clustering standard errors at the province level leaves coefficients of interest significant, although in the inland sample for GDP per capita only at 10%.

“The coe¢cients of interest remain signi…cant, although in the inland sample for GDP per capita only at 10%.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The allocation of SEZ in inland cities was driven by rigidly selected criteria.

May combine two claims.

Both the spatial and the temporal variation of the SEZ appear to be important for the results.

“Both the spatial and the temporal variation of the SEZ appear to be important for the results.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

We cannot rule out that the industrial policy drew resources away from locations that are remote and far away from the SEZ.

“Finally, although the establishment of SEZ appears to have generated positive spillovers outside of the areas where they were introduced, we cannot rule out that the industrial policy drew resources away from locations that are remote and far away from the SEZ.”

May combine two claims.

Outside the zones, the tax rate for foreign firms was 33% and for state-owned firms 55%.

“Outside of the zones, the tax rate for foreign …rms was 33% and for state-owned …rms 55% (seeWei 1993).”

• cites Wei 1993 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

SEZ status implied tax deductions, special tariffs for import and export, and exemptions from regulations on foreign exchange and land use.

“The SEZ status implied tax deductions, special tari¤s for import and export, and exemptions from the regulations on foreign exchange and land use.”

• cites Wei 1993 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The fully flexible specification with separate indicators for each year is very demanding, and yields imprecise estimates.

“The fully ‡exible speci…cation with separate indicators for each year is very demanding, and yields imprecise estimates.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The difference between Panel A and B in sample size is due to cities with zero universities in the first year, such that the log difference in Panel A is not defined.

“The di¤erence between Panel A and B in the sample size is due to cities with zero universities in the …rst year, such that the log di¤erence in Panel A is not de…ned.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The positive effect may be due to firms active in SEZ setting up facilities in the periphery.

“The positive e¤ect may be due to …rms active in SEZ setting up facilities in the periphery.”

May combine two claims.

Foreign firms inside SEZ first enjoyed two years of tax holiday, then three years of a low tax rate of 7.5%, and after the initial five years a tax rate of 15%.

“Foreign …rms that resided inside of the SEZ …rst enjoyed two years of tax holiday, then three years of a low tax rate of 7.5%, and after the initial …ve years a tax rate of 15%.”

• cites Wei 1993 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Patent citations are highly spatially clustered, implying distance decay in knowledge diffusion.

“Ja¤e et al. (1993) …nd that patent citations are highly spatially clustered, which implies that there is a distance decay in the knowledge di¤usion.”

• cites Ja¤e et al. (1993)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Geographic distance (or transportation costs) plays a central role in the literature on trade and economic geography.

“Geographic distance (or transportation costs) plays also a central role in the literature on trade and economic geography(Fujita et al. 1999).”

• cites Fujita et al. 1999 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The benefit of technology spillover is halved with a distance of 1200 kilometers.

“Keller (2002) …nds that the bene…t of technology spillover is halved with a distance of 1200 kilometers.”

• cites Keller (2002) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source