Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond
Abstract
This paper develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. It encompasses the endogenous transition between three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from a Malthusian regime, where technological progress is slow and population growth prevents any sustained rise in income per capita, into a Post-Malthusian regime, where technological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth, and the economy enters a Modern Growth regime with reduced population growth and sustained income growth. (JEL J13, O11, O33, O40)
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The crucial event in a demographic transition is the onset of a declining trend in the fertility time path.
“According to demographers (e.g., Chesnais, 1992; Kirk, 1996) and economists (e.g., Galor and Weil, 2000; Cervellati and Sunde, 2015), the crucial event in a demographic transition is the onset of a declining trend in the fertility time path.”
From Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes (2019) · cites this paper as Galor and Weil, 2000
Many of the causes and channels of fertility decline described for high-income countries apply equally to low-income countries, in particular the economic-demographic transition from Malthusian stagnation to a modern growth regime.
“Although this review focuses on highincome countries, many of the causes and channels described apply equally to low-income countries, in particular in respect to the economic-demographic transition from Malthusian stagnation with high fertility and low economic growth to a modern growth regime with low fertility and high economic growth (Galor & Weil 2000).”
From Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences (2024) · cites this paper as Galor & Weil 2000
Cites
Toward A Restatement of Demographic Transition Theory
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The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence*
Aghion, P., Howitt, P., & Mayer-Foulkes, D. (2005) · Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/qjec.2005.120.1.173 · Cited by 962 · see citing works
The Role of Energy in Economic Growth
Stern, D. I. (2011) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05921.x · Cited by 617 · see citing works
The economic consequences of reproductive health and family planning
Canning, D., & Schultz, T. P. (2012) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(12)60827-7 · Cited by 414 · see citing works
The Role of Energy in the Industrial Revolution and Modern Economic Growth
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Blum, U., & Dudley, L. (2001) · Journal of Evolutionary Economics · doi:10.1007/pl00003862 · Cited by 229 · see citing works
Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Kotschy, R., Prettner, K., & Schünemann, J. (2024) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106575 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Aggregate Fertility and Household Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis using Micro Data
Banerjee, A., Meng, X., Porzio, T., & Qian, N. (2014) · doi:10.3386/w20050 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Population, Poverty, and Climate Change
Das Gupta, M. (2014) · The World Bank Research Observer · doi:10.1093/wbro/lkt009 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences
Bloom, D. E., Kuhn, M., & Prettner, K. (2024) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-081523-013750 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Grinin, L., Grinin, A., & Korotayev, A. (2023) · World Futures · doi:10.1080/02604027.2023.2204791 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences
Bloom, D. E., Kuhn, M., & Prettner, K. (2023) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4597716 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes
Papagni, E. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3522996 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
- Authors
- Galor, O., & Weil, D. N.
- Affiliations
- Hebrew University of Jerusalem (IL)
- Brown University (US)
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2000-09-01
- Volume
- 90
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 806-828
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3121565390
- Cited by
- 2,319
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 72 · 2025: 93 · 2024: 101 · 2023: 96 · 2022: 127 · 2021: 104 · 2020: 105 · 2019: 108 · 2018: 84 · 2017: 83 · 2016: 116 · 2015: 115 · 2014: 112 · 2013: 98 · 2012: 125
- FWCI
- 91.45
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Historical Economic and Social Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Development and Digital Transformation
- Keywords
- Malthusian stagnation, demographic transition, endogenous growth model, population growth, technological progress, per capita income, history of economic development
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