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Cited by 4,608

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Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market

Open access
Kilian, Lutz·2009·American Economic Review
DOI 10.1257/aer.99.3.1053
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Abstract

Shocks to the real price of oil may reflect oil supply shocks, shocks to the global demand for all industrial commodities, or demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. Each shock has different effects on the real price of oil and on US macroeconomic aggregates. Changes in the composition of shocks help explain why regressions of macroeconomic aggregates on oil prices tend to be unstable. Evidence that the recent surge in oil prices was driven primarily by global demand shocks helps explain why this shock so far has failed to cause a major recession in the United States. (JEL E31, E32, Q41, Q43)

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Metadata

Authors
Kilian, L.
Venue
American Economic Review
Publisher
American Economic Association
Published
2009-05-01
Volume
99
Issue
3
Pages
1053-1069
ISSN
0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1257/aer.99.3.1053
OpenAlex
W2098052145
Cited by
4,608
References
0
FWCI
332.11
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
green

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1257/aer.99.3.1053
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Kilian, L. (2009). Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. American Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.3.1053

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