Cited by 603Advanced Causal Inference TechniquesEvaluation and Performance AssessmentMachine Learning in Healthcare

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 9 of the 9 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Prediction Policy Problems

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Abstract

Most empirical policy work focuses on causal inference. We argue an important class of policy problems does not require causal inference but instead requires predictive inference. Solving these “prediction policy problems” requires more than simple regression techniques, since these are tuned to generating unbiased estimates of coefficients rather than minimizing prediction error. We argue that new developments in the field of “machine learning” are particularly useful for addressing these prediction problems. We use an example from health policy to illustrate the large potential social welfare gains from improved prediction.

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Metadata

Authors
Kleinberg, J., Ludwig, J., Mullainathan, S., & Obermeyer, Z.
Affiliations
  • Cornell University (US)
  • University of Chicago (US)
  • Harvard University (US)
  • Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
Venue
American Economic Review
Published
2015-05-01
Volume
105
Issue
5
Pages
491-495
ISSN
0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2203167467
Cited by
584
References
9
Citations by year
2026: 40 · 2025: 52 · 2024: 65 · 2023: 65 · 2022: 61 · 2021: 74 · 2020: 90 · 2019: 55 · 2018: 37 · 2017: 28 · 2016: 13 · 2015: 3
FWCI
24.03
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
National Institutes of Health (DP5OD012161)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
  • Social Sciences › Public Administration › Evaluation and Performance Assessment
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Machine Learning in Healthcare
Keywords
predictive inference, causal inference, machine learning, prediction error, health policy

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