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The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy
Open accessAbstract
The NAIRU, the unemployment rate consistent with a constant rate of inflation, is estimated, in this paper, as a parameter allowed to vary over time. Value is determined in an econometric model where the inflation rate depends on its past values, demand and supply shocks. The NAIRU estimated for the GDP deflator varies over the past forty years within 5.4 to 6.5 percent; its estimated value for the most recent quarter (1996:Q2) is 5.6 percent. The NAIRU has declined in recent years in response to global competition, immigration, other factors weakening labor's bargaining position, and the rapidly declining prices of computers and other electronics.
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Citations
Cited by
The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective
Clarida, R., Galí, J., & Gertler, M. (1999) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.37.4.1661 · Cited by 4,916
(2011) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta5771 · Cited by 2,096
Does the “New Economy” Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?
Gordon, R. J. (2000) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.14.4.49 · Cited by 1,206
Self-citationSticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
Mankiw, N. G. G., & Reis, R. A. M. R. (2001) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.268692 · Cited by 688
Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policy-Makers' Beliefs and U. S. Postwar Stabilization Policy*
Primiceri, G. E. (2006) · Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/qjec.121.3.867 · Cited by 285
Metadata
- Authors
- Gordon, R. J.
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Perspectives
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 1997-02-01
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 11-32
- ISSN
- 0895-3309 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3122370327
- Cited by
- 827
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 125.27
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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