The DOI matches its Crossref record; 153 of the 153 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 3 of the 22 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Does the “New Economy” Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?
Open accessAbstract
During the four years 1995-99 U.S. productivity growth experienced a strong revival and achieved growth rates exceeding that of the “golden age” of 1913-72. Accordingly many observers have declared the “New Economy” to be an Industrial Revolution even more important than the Second Industrial Revolution of 1860-1900, which made the golden age of productivity growth possible. This paper dissects the recent productivity revival, subtracts out a cyclical component, and concludes that there is no revival of the productivity growth trend in the 88 percent of the private economy lying outside of the durables manufacturing sector. The paper explains this surprising finding by pointing to limitations in computers and the internet in comparison with the great inventions of the past.
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Claims the paper makes
3 of 22 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“Gordon (1990, p. 239) calculates that the annual rate of price decline between 1972 and 1987 would have been 35 percent per annum, rather than 20 percent per annum, if this transitional benefit had been taken into account.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Gordon (1990) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The available passages from the Preface (pp. 2–4) discuss computer-price research but give no calculation for 1972–1987 or comparison of 35% and 20% annual price declines. Searches for those figures and the mainframe-to-personal-computer transition returned only Preface passages; the cited p. 239 was not available to assess. (LLM, conf=0.75)
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The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“because the government deflators for software and telecommunications equipment exhibit implausibly low rates of price decline (Jorgenson and Stiroh, 2000).”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Dissecting the Revival in U.S. Productivity Growth
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Jorgenson and Stiroh, 2000 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Sections 38–40 identify reasons official deflators may understate price declines for software and communications equipment, and section 66 tests alternative deflators with faster declines. But the paper calls the software issue a competing explanation and the communications-equipment bias possible; it does not establish that both official rates are implausibly low. (LLM, conf=0.85)
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The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“However, as shown by Jorgenson and Stiroh (2000), the outcome of the debate over the software deflators has almost no impact on the question of how this sector of the Internet economy affects productivity in the rest of the economy.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Positive and Negative Sides of the Internet
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Jorgenson and Stiroh (2000) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 66 examines alternative software price deflators, and section 70 says they change measured output growth and capital services. Neither passage assesses whether the choice of deflator has almost no impact on the software sector’s effect on productivity in the rest of the economy; searches for that comparison found no passage that settles it. (LLM, conf=0.68)
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the nominal share of computer hardware expenditures in the total economy (which implicitly holds income constant) rose rapidly before 1987 but barely increased at all after that year”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The capital-deepening effect of faster growth in capital relative to labor in the aggregate economy accounts for 0.33 percentage points of the acceleration (all due to computers), and an acceleration of multifac-”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- The authors state this as an assumption: Actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, when examined closely, it turns out that a major fraction of the revival in multifactor productivity growth has occurred within the part of the economy engaged in producing computers and peripherals, and within the rest of the durable manufacturing sector, which together comprise only about 12 percent of the private business economy.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The remaining 0.64 points can be directly attributed to computers.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- The authors state this as an assumption: Actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“tor productivity growth in computer and computer-related semiconductor manufacturing account for almost all of the rest.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- The authors state this as an assumption: Actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although the price decline of computing power has accelerated from 1995-99 as opposed to the period from 1987-94, as shown earlier in Figure 1, over the last five decades these rapid rates of price decline are standard.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Yet a cyclical effect of the magnitude estimated here is not unprecedented or unusual.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- The authors state this as an assumption: Actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In fact, the slope of the price-quantity relationship was appreciably flatter during 1960 -72 and 1972-87 than during 1987-95 or 1995-99.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Capital deepening during 1995-99 proceeded at an extraordinary rate.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If there had been a discontinuous rightward shift in the demand curve for computer hardware, the slope of the price-quantity relationship in the top frame of Figure 2 should flatten noticeably, as the rate of increase of quantity accelerates relative to the rate of decline in price, but it does not.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“If the demand curve has not shifted, the inverse of these slopes is the price elasticity of demand, namely Ϫ2.03, Ϫ1.97, Ϫ1.64, and Ϫ1.36 in these four intervals”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Brynjolfsson (1996, p. 292)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The overall acceleration in output per hour, combining multifactor productivity growth and the impact of capital deepening, is more than a full percentage point per year when 1995-99 is compared to the 1972-95 slowdown period.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“I cannot type or think any faster than I did with my first 1983 personal computer that contained 1/100th of the memory and operated at 1/60th of the speed of my present model.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“at the end of 1995 there was an acceleration of the rate of price change in computer hardware (including peripherals) from an average rate of Ϫ14.7 percent during 1987-95 to an average rate of Ϫ31.2 percent during 1996 -99.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Dissecting the Revival in U.S. Productivity Growth
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“From the fourth quarter of 1993 to the fourth quarter of 1999, the performance of a computer at a given price rose by a factor of 5.2.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Dissecting the Revival in U.S. Productivity Growth
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“From the fourth quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 1999, the annual growth of output per hour was 1.33 percentage points faster than from 1972:Q2 to 1995:Q4 (as shown in Table 2, column 1, lines 1 and 4).”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- The authors state this as an assumption: Actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Indeed, existing computer price deflators fail to take account of the radical decline in the price per calculation that occurred in the transition from mainframes to personal computers, which have been studied only separately, not together.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“over the period since 1987, spending on computers stagnated at around 1.3 percent of the nonfarm private business economy, as shown in the bottom frame of Figure 1.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Dissecting the Revival in U.S. Productivity Growth
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In the paper
“by the end of the year 2000 the percentage of American households hooked up to the Internet will have reached 50 percent.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Positive and Negative Sides of the Internet
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear? Based: unclearIn the paper
“As we have seen above in Table 2, this sector accounts for the largest single component of the post-1995 productivity growth acceleration, both the direct effect of faster multifactor growth in computer hardware (including computer-related semiconductors) and the indirect capital-deepening effect of the investment boom in information technology.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Positive and Negative Sides of the Internet
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Barua et al. (1999)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“So far this payoff has appeared in other parts of durable manufacturing, but not in rest of the economy.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Positive and Negative Sides of the Internet
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This set of points of price and quantity for given years has an intuitive supply and demand interpretation: there has been an outward shift of the supply curve for computers, driven by technological advance, happening at a rate much faster than the upward shift in the demand for computer services.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A final reason that computers run into diminishing returns is that there are real limitations to the replacement of human beings by computers.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“there is no evidence of a rising marginal cost of producing additional computer speed, memory, and other characteristics at a given level of technology.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“From this perspective, the technological advance created by the New Economy of the last five years may be less significant than it at first appears.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Rests on an assumption: The New Economy is more about computers than pharmaceuticals.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“it would take a reduction in the cyclical effect in the right-hand column of Table 2 by .29 points (from .63 to .34) to eliminate the basic conclusion that trend productivity growth outside of durables has decelerated.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- The authors state this as an assumption: Actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If output was growing faster than trend, then productivity was also growing faster than trend, and some part of the productivity revival recorded in Table 1 was transitory rather than permanent.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, it seems unlikely that taking gains in life expectancy into account will elevate the possible Third Industrial Revolution relative to the second one.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > How the Great Inventions Helped Us Escape from the Bad Old Days
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“Danger was not confined to mines or mills; in 1890 one railroad employee was killed for every 300 employed.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Life in the "Bad Old Days"
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Bettman (1974)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“What makes diminishing returns particularly important in understanding the computer paradox is the sheer pace at which computer users are sliding down the computer demand curve to ever-lower marginal utility uses.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Perhaps the most tangible improvement in the everyday standard of living, besides electric light, came through the rapid spread after 1880 of running water, indoor plumbing, and urban sanitation infrastructure.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Great Inventions
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“Travel between cities on railroads was surprisingly dangerous; in 1890, railroad-connected accidents caused 10,000 deaths.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Life in the "Bad Old Days"
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Bettman (1974)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The productivity enhancement of WYSIWYG was minor in comparison”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As the diagram is drawn, a large part of the consumer surplus occurred in going from A to B to C, and further gains are relatively small.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“this shift in the price-quantity slope is consistent with the view that the most important uses of computers were developed more than a decade into the past, not currently.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“In 1882, only 2 percent of New York City's houses had water connections.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Life in the "Bad Old Days"
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Bettman (1974)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The shape of the graph offers evidence that the demand curve has not shifted much or at all.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The computer hardware and software industries are certainly not unique in running into some form of diminishing returns.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A second distinguishing feature of the development of the computer industry, after the decline in price, is the unprecedented speed with which diminishing returns set in.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Personal computers are a secondary step in the evolution of computer technology, made practical by decreasing costs of computer power.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The driving force behind the greater rate of price decline was an acceleration in the rate of technological progress; apparently, the time cycle of Moore's Law, which has historically held that the price of computing power falls by half every 18 months, shortened from 18 months to about 12 months at this time.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Dissecting the Revival in U.S. Productivity Growth
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Instead of waiting for the productivity boost to arrive, it is more plausible that the main productivity gains of computers have already been achieved.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the declining point of intersection of the supply curve with the fixed demand curve implies a rapid decline in the marginal utility or benefit of computer power.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“But the fact of extreme diminishing returns in computers argues against the David (1990) delay hypothesis.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites David (1990)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The fixed supply of time to any individual creates a fundamental limitation on the ability of exponential growth in computer speed and memory to create commensurate increases in output and productivity.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, three-quarters of all computer investment has been in industries with no perceptible trend increase in productivity.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“But there are deeper reasons, rooted in basic principles of economics like diminishing returns, as to why, half a century from now, it is unlikely that historians and economists will look back at the present surge in computer investment as the harbinger of a Third Industrial Revolution.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Great Inventions
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes? Checkable: unclear✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Rests on an assumption: The New Economy is more about computers than pharmaceuticals.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These five clusters of inventions, in turn, created an increase in per capita income and wealth during the golden years of productivity growth from 1913-72 that allowed an improvement in living standards even in those aspects of consumption where inventions did not play a major role, particularly the ability of families to afford many more square feet of shelter (and in the suburbs more land sur”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Great Inventions
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Moreover, it is quite plausible that the greatest benefits of computers lie a decade or more in the past, not in the future.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Abstract
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In this sense the Solow computer paradox survives intact for most of the economy, and the need to explain it motivates the rest of this paper.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“But computers provided powerful benefits early on.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“But despite the list of innovations of this time period-the steam engine, the power loom, and so on-multifactor productivity grew at a snail's pace in the nineteenth century.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > How the Great Inventions Helped Us Escape from the Bad Old Days
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites De Long (2000)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These results imply that computer investment has had a near-zero rate of return outside of durable manufacturing.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- The authors state this as an assumption: Actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There are a number of differences between the computer and the great inventions of the Second Industrial Revolution, but perhaps the largest difference is the unprecedented rate of decline in the price of computer power.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Rests on an assumption: The New Economy is more about computers than pharmaceuticals.
In the paper
“In 1996, current dollar value-added in durable manufacturing was 11.6 percent of current dollar output in the nonfarm private business sector.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Conclusion
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Economic Report of the President, February 1999, Tables B-10 and B-12
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“But as noted earlier in the discussion of Figure 2, there is little evidence that the demand curve has shifted in this way.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Positive and Negative Sides of the Internet
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“but dating from the first commercial TV station in 1947 this penetration rate was reached in only seven years.See Kurian (1994, series R105 divided by A335).”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Conclusion
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Kurian (1994, series R105 divided by A335)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“To the extent that e-commerce is provided by one business to another, it is an intermediate good and not directly relevant for computing the productivity of final output in the noncomputer economy.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Positive and Negative Sides of the Internet
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
- It may state two separate claims as one. 35
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
- Probably not a substantial claim. 14
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, in the remaining 88 percent of the economy, the New Economy's effects on productivity growth are surprisingly absent, and capital deepening has been remarkably unproductive.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Abstract
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While the aggregate numbers are impressive, the productivity revival appears to have occurred primarily within the production of computer hardware, peripherals, and telecommunications equipment, with substantial spillover to the 12 percent of the economy involved in manufacturing durable goods.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Many of the industries that are the heaviest users of computer technology-like airlines, banks, and insurance companies-began in the 1960s and 1970s with mainframe technology and still perform the most computation-intensive activities on mainframes, often using personal computers as smart terminals to access the mainframe database.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hours growth lags behind output growth and responds by roughly 0.75 of the output change; thus growth in output per hour exhibits a temporary acceleration when hours are lagging behind output changes, and in addition increases by roughly 0.25 of any excess in output growth relative to trend.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result, after taking capital deepening into account, line 11 shows a substantial structural deceleration in multifactor productivity growth in the economy outside of the durable goods manufacturing sector.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, the period from 1995 to 1999 is much shorter than the earlier three time periods and during at least part of that time, it seemed clear even to many of the New Economy optimists that output growth was running at a faster pace than the sustainable long-term growth trend.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At the end of 1999 the level of nonfarm business output per hour was 2.0 percent above trend, a smaller cyclical deviation than occurred in 1966, 1973, and 1992.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“But in either case, spillover effects on multifactor productivity in the noncomputer economy are absent (column 1) or slightly negative (column 2).”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The rate of change of price and quantity both accelerate after 1995 (as indicated by the greater price declines and quantity increases between annual observations) but the slope becomes steeper rather than flatter.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The rate of price change has varied over time, but rapid price declines also occurred during the 1950 -80 interval dominated by the mainframe computer and the 1980 -95 interval dominated by the transition from mainframe to personal computer applications prior to the invention of the Internet.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The analysis here argues that .50percentage points of that increase is a cyclical effect (column 1, line 2); .19 points of that increase results from changes in measurement of prices and labor quality; .33 points is the capital deepening from greater investment in computers; .29 points is the acceleration of multifactor productivity growth in manufacturing computers; .27points is the acceleration”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In this calculation, the structural acceleration of labor productivity on line 8 is 0.42 percentage points, compared to 0.64 for the first column.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The capital stock with which I work has increased by a factor of almost 30, according to the hedonic price methodology, yet my productivity has hardly budged”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Improvements in performanceprice ratios for individual computer components are substantially larger, by a factor of 16.2 for computer processors, 75.5 for RAM, and 176.0 for hard disk capacity.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Dissecting the Revival in U.S. Productivity Growth
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This acceleration in the price decline of computers since 1995 has been accompanied by a revival of productivity growth in the aggregate economy which is impressive in comparison with the American historical record dating back more than a century.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Dissecting the Revival in U.S. Productivity Growth
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“producers' durable equipment investment in software in 1999 was $143.3 billion, almost 50 percent larger than such investment in computer and peripheral hardware.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Positive and Negative Sides of the Internet
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The accelerated rate of price decline in computer attributes has been accompanied since 1995 by the invention of the Internet, by which I really mean the widespread public use of the web using web browsers.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Positive and Negative Sides of the Internet
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The use of the Internet for e-mail long predated the invention of web browsers, and the hardware and software requirements for straight e-mail, as opposed to e-commerce, are very small.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Positive and Negative Sides of the Internet
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This pattern suggests that while the pace of technological change has speeded up in the last few years, the relationship between supply and demand is not qualitatively different than earlier advances in the computer industry.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result, there has been an exponential rate of decline in my output-to-capital ratio, and an equally sharp decline in the marginal productivity of computer capital.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This set of inventions that made the world smaller can be traced back to the telegraph (1844) and includes the telephone (1876), phonograph (1877), popular photography (1880s and 1890s), radio (1899), motion pictures (1881 to 1888), and television (1911).Television is the only one of these innovations that was diffused into the popular marketplace after World War II.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Great Inventions
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“After a somewhat longer lag, electric motors embodied in consumer appliances eliminated the greatest source of drudgery of all, manual laundry; refrigeration virtually eliminated food spoilage; and air conditioning made summers enjoyable and opened the southern United States for modern economic development (David, 1990).”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Great Inventions
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites David, 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Internet is yet another step in the evolution of computer technology, also made possible by decreasing costs of computer power.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They helped to reduce air pollution created by industrial and heating uses of coal, and they made possible many new and improved materials and products, as well as conquering illness and prolonging life.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Great Inventions
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The cost of computing has dropped exponentially, but the cost of thinking is what it always was.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Griliches
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“In the opening decades of the twentieth century, electric motors revolutionized manufacturing by decentralizing the source of power and making possible flexible and portable tools and machines.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Great Inventions
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites David, 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In this sense, computers have been around for almost 50 years.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, computers are actually less pervasive in the economy than is generally thought, because some tasks are resistant to replacement of human beings by computers.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Mokyr and Stein (1997, p. 146) credit Louis Pasteur's germ theory of disease for the great decline in mortality in the four decades prior to World War I, long before the invention of antibiotics, although in part the development of indoor plumbing was independent of the germ theory and dates to the invention of the indoor flush toilet.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Great Inventions
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Mokyr and Stein (1997)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Sharing the title with electricity for the most important invention that had its main diffusion in the twentieth century is the internal combustion engine, which made possible personal autos, motor transport, and air transport.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Great Inventions
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Numerous industries have run into barriers to steady growth in productivity, most notably the airline industry when jet aircraft reached natural barriers of size and speed, and the electric utility industry when turbogenerator/boiler sets reached natural barriers of temperature and pressure.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The reason that electric light and electric motors took time to diffuse is that initially they were very expensive and didn't work very well.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Since Gary Becker's (1965) seminal article on the economics of time, household production has been viewed as an activity which combines market goods and time.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Becker (1965) source
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The real revolution in word processing came at the beginning, by ending repetitive retyping and by allowing revisions to be inserted while the rest of the document would automatically reformat itself.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The apparent dearth of productivity growth in the construction and home maintenance industry reflects that electric portable power tools could only be invented once and have been subject to only marginal improvements in recent decades.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Declining Cost of Computer Power and the Pervasiveness of Diminishing Returns
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“This is surprising, because 76.6 percent of all computers are used in the industries of wholesale and retail trade, finance, insurance, real estate, and other services, while just 11.9 percent of computers are used in five computer-intensive industries within manufacturing, and only 11.5 percent in the rest of the economy (McGuckin and Stiroh, 1998, Table 1, p. 42).”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Table 1
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites McGuckin and Stiroh, 1998
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The reason is that using alternative software deflators with radically faster rates of price decline has two offsetting effects from the point of view of productivity calculations: capital inputs grow faster, but total output grows faster, too.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Positive and Negative Sides of the Internet
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Perhaps the most important single consumer benefit at present, also now used universally within business firms, is e-mail.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Positive and Negative Sides of the Internet
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Even Business Week, normally enthusiastic about the benefits of the New Economy, admits that the latest increments in chip speed offer”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Conclusion
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Wildstrom (1999, p. 23)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“The record compiled for 1870 -1996 in Table1is based onGordon (2000b), which merges data fromKendrick (1961) with BEA and BLS data for the postwar period and develops estimates for labor and capital composition to carry the postwar BLS composition adjustments back from 1948 to 1870.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Conclusion
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Gordon (2000b)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Kendrick (1961)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“In the Oliner-Sichel decomposition on which line 9 is based, computers account for all of the acceleration in the capital-deepening effect, and the additional acceleration attributable to semiconductors and telecommunications is exactly canceled out by a deceleration of capital deepening for all other types of equipment and structures (Oliner and Sichel, 2000, Table 2, lines 2 through 7).”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > Conclusion
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Oliner and Sichel, 2000, Table 2, lines 2 through 7
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overall, there is more capital deepening and a higher share of the productivity acceleration accounted for by the software industry, but no change in any conclusions about spillovers from software to the rest of the economy.”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Positive and Negative Sides of the Internet
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The benefits of e-commerce also include the provision of vast amounts of free information that was formerly expensive or inconvenient to obtain”
§ Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past? > The Positive and Negative Sides of the Internet
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.
“Moreover, it is assumed that actual and trend output were equal in the later stages of upswings in 1954:Q1, 1963:Q3, 1972:Q2, 1978:Q2, 1987:Q3 and 1995:Q4.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The New Economy is more about computers than pharmaceuticals.
“But in common discourse, the New Economy is certainly more about computers than pharmaceuticals.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Word processing is the only use of computers in the demand curve in Figure 3.
“This is the demand curve for computers which is drawn on the simplified assumption that word processing is the only use of computers, but the point can be made in multiple dimensions.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Electric-motor productivity gains are placed in different centuries
MinorOne passage says the productivity benefits of electric light and motors did not arrive until the opening decades of the 21st century. Another says electric motors revolutionized manufacturing in the opening decades of the twentieth century.
“so that their productivity benefits did not arrive until the opening decades of the 21st century.”
“In the opening decades of the twentieth century, electric motors revolutionized manufacturing by decentralizing the source of power and making possible flexible and portable tools and machines.”
Citations
Cites
A Theory of the Allocation of Time
Becker, G. S. (1965) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/2228949 · Cited by 10,354
Moffitt, R. (2009) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.99.2.660 · Cited by 4,888
The Explanation of Productivity Change
Jorgenson, D. W., & Griliches, Z. (1967) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.2307/2296675 · Cited by 2,459
Paradox Lost? Firm-Level Evidence on the Returns to Information Systems Spending
Brynjolfsson, E., & Hitt, L. M. (1996) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.42.4.541 · Cited by 2,133
The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story?
Oliner, S. D., & Sichel, D. E. (2000) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.14.4.3 · Cited by 1,845
Computing Productivity: Firm-Level Evidence
Brynjolfsson, E., & Hitt, L. M. (2003) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/003465303772815736 · Cited by 1,620
Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age
Jorgenson, D. W., & Stiroh, K. J. (2000) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.1353/eca.2000.0008 · Cited by 1,462
Oi, W. Y. (1962) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/258715 · Cited by 1,421
(1990) · American Economic Review · Cited by 1,345
Productivity Trends in the United States
Derksen, J. B. D., & Kendrick, J. W. (1961) · Revue de l Institut International de Statistique / Review of the International Statistical Institute · doi:10.2307/1401957 · Cited by 1,115
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 15
- Bennett Johanna, 2000, Wall Street Journal, 15, B10D
- Bulkeley William M, 2000, Wall Street Journal, 5, A4
- Byron Christopher, 2000, Fortune, 21, 104
- Chow Gregory C, 1967, American Economic Review, 57, 1117
- Clark Don, 1999, Wall Street Journal, 21, B7
- Cortada James W, 1993, NCR, Burroughs, and Remington Rand and the Industry They Created, 1865
- Doan Amy, 2000, Forbes, 21, 140
- Farrell Greg, 2000, USA Today, 18, A1
- Guernsey Lisa, 2000, New York Times, 5, C10
- Ip Greg, 2000, Wall Street Journal, 18, C1
- 1998, Summer, 41
- Mokyr Joel, 1997, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review. Second Quarter, 31
- 2000, Wall Street Journal, 17, A1
- Uchitelle Louis, 2000, New York Times, 3, 4
- Wildstrom Stephen H, 1999, Business Week, 22, 23
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Powell, W. W., & Snellman, K. (2004) · Annual Review of Sociology · doi:10.1146/annurev.soc.29.010202.100037 · Cited by 2,023
Skill‐Biased Technological Change and Rising Wage Inequality: Some Problems and Puzzles
Card, D., & DiNardo, J. E. (2002) · Journal of Labor Economics · doi:10.1086/342055 · Cited by 1,714
Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age
Jorgenson, D. W., & Stiroh, K. J. (2000) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.1353/eca.2000.0008 · Cited by 1,462
Computing Productivity: Firm-Level Evidence
Brynjolfsson, E., & Hitt, L. M. (2003) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/003465303772815736 · Cited by 1,620
Broadband Infrastructure and Economic Growth
Czernich, N., Falck, O., Kretschmer, T., & Woessmann, L. (2011) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02420.x · Cited by 1,403
Metadata
- Authors
- Gordon, R. J.
- Affiliations
- Northwestern University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Gordon, Robert J
- ORCID
- Gordon, Robert J
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Perspectives
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2000-11-01
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 49-74
- ISSN
- 0895-3309 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2142353537
- Cited by
- 1,206
- References
- 59
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 26 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 25 · 2015: 27 · 2014: 22 · 2013: 44 · 2012: 49
- FWCI
- 266.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Journal of Economic Perspectives (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Development and Digital Transformation
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Development
- Keywords
- new economy, productivity growth, Second Industrial Revolution, computers, internet, technological change
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-11, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-11 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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