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Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy
Abstract
A key issue in current research and policy is the size of fiscal multipliers when the economy is in recession. We provide three insights. First, using regime-switching models, we find large differences in the size of spending multipliers in recessions and expansions with fiscal policy being considerably more effective in recessions than in expansions. Second, we estimate multipliers for more disaggregate spending variables which behave differently relative to aggregate fiscal policy shocks, with military spending having the largest multiplier. Third, we show that controlling for predictable components of fiscal shocks tends to increase the size of the multipliers in recessions. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63)
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Cites
Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., & Rubin, D. B. (2003) · doi:10.1201/9780429258480 · Cited by 27,276
Cited by
The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States
Mertens, K., & Ravn, M. O. (2013) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.103.4.1212 · Cited by 1,019
Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy
Auerbach, A. J., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2013) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.103.3.141 · Cited by 384
Self-citationEstimating Local Fiscal Multipliers
Suárez Serrato, J. C., & Wingender, P. (2016) · doi:10.3386/w22425 · Cited by 270
Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say 'Usually Not'
Chang, A. C., & Li, P. (2015) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2669564 · Cited by 217
Fiscal policy in good and bad times
Candelon, B., & Lieb, L. (2013) · Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control · doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2013.09.001 · Cited by 84
Metadata
- Authors
- Auerbach, A. J., & Gorodnichenko, Y.
- Venue
- American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2012-05-01
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 1-27
- ISSN
- 1945-7731 (ISSN-L)
- 1945-774X
- OpenAlex
- W3121786260
- Cited by
- 1,726
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 281.01
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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