Tempo Effects and their Relevance in Demographic Analysis
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Demographic period indicators like the total fertility rate or life expectancy are well known since more than a century and until recently there were only minor discussions about their usefulness. This changed with a series of publications by Bongaarts and Feeney (BF) in which they claimed that these indicators are inappropriate for describing current demographic conditions when the average age at childbearing respective death is changing. Therefore, BF proposed alternative tempo-adjusted indicators for such situations which can be very useful for demographic analysis. The still existing scepticism against the BF approach and the general rejection of mortality tempo adjustment in particular have their origin in a set of misunderstandings and misinterpretations of tempo-adjusted indicators. This paper systematically describes the basic idea of tempo effects, how they can distort the commonly used conventional period indicators and how the proposed methods approximate the idea of tempo adjustment, illustrated with empirical data for West Germany. We also summarize the critiques against tempo adjustment and try to put the tempo approach in the right perspective. Finally, the paper strives for providing a better understanding when tempo-adjusted measures should be used as alternative or in addition to the commonly used conventional demographic indicators.
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The idea and significance of the tempo effect in fertility has become widely accepted in demographic research.
“Although demographers have not reached consensus regarding the usefulness of various tempo adjustment methods, the idea and significance of the tempo effect in fertility (and also in mortality and marriage rates) has become widely accepted in demographic research (Luy 2011).”
From Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect (2018) · cites this paper as Luy 2011
The Introduction (page not available in our copy) says tempo adjustment is widely practiced in fertility analysis, supporting the claim about fertility. But the cited sentence also extends widespread acceptance to mortality and marriage rates: the Introduction says mortality tempo adjustment is less accepted and rarely used, and it does not establish widespread acceptance for marriage rates. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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Cites
Timing effects and the interpretation of period fertility
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Yi, Z., & Land, K. C. (2001) · Demography · doi:10.1353/dem.2001.0010 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect
Yoo, S. H., & Sobotka, T. (2018) · Demographic Research · doi:10.4054/demres.2018.38.22 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
- Authors
- Luy, M.
- Affiliations
- Austrian Academy of Sciences (AT)
- Corresponding author
- Luy, Marc
- ORCID
- Luy, Marc
- Venue
- Comparative Population Studies
- Published
- 2011-09-15
- Volume
- 35
- Issue
- 3
- ISSN
- 1869-8980 (ISSN-L)
- 1869-8999
- OpenAlex
- W2130153635
- Cited by
- 21
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2022: 1 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 2 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 1 · 2014: 1 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 6.18
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Comparative Population Studies (publishedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Keywords
- tempo effects, total fertility rate, life expectancy, age at childbearing, demographic indicators, West Germany
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