Timing effects and the interpretation of period fertility
Open accessAbstract
Low fertility levels and later childbearing in many developed countries have reinvigorated the debate between period and cohort perspectives on fertility and on the meaningfulness of the period total fertility rate (TFR). Here, fertility-timing effects are defined as level changes in period fertility that do not reflect level changes in the completed fertility of cohorts. That definition leads to the average cohort fertility (ACF) as a measure of period fertility adjusted for timing effects. In an influential paper, Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) presented an alternative approach and a different measure, TFR*, to adjust for timing effects. Here, the two measures are compared. In the context of model populations, the ACF performs well, reflecting an average of the fertility of the active cohorts. The Bongaarts-Feeney TFR*, however, is frequently unreliable and can be erratic when there are cycles in period timing. When applied to twentieth-century U.S. experience, the TFR* behaves like a period measure and yields adjustments that are often wide of the mark. The ACF shows the stability associated with cohort measures and quantifies the substantial impact that timing effects had during the “birth dearth” of the 1970s. The period TFR reached a low of 1.74 in 1976, but the ACF never went below 2.06 during the 1970s.
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Fertility aspirations do not appear to be a meaningful construct for many people.
“In sum, fertility aspirations do not appear to be a meaningful construct for many people (Ní Bhrolch á in, 1992; Schoen, 2004).”
From Delayed Fertility as a Driver of Fertility Decline? (2023) · cites this paper as Schoen, 2004
In the passage labeled ROBERT SCHOEN, Schoen says there is good evidence against a fixed reproductive target and that childbearing goals change. But he also says early goals can remain important and meaningful, so the paper does not support the broader claim that fertility aspirations are not a meaningful construct for many people. The indexed copy does not provide a page number for this passage. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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“…and Wu 2003; Schoen 2004; Van Imhoff and Keilman 2000), some researchers have compared them with the CTFR (e.g., Kohler and Ortega 2002; Ryder 1990; Schoen 2004; Smallwood 2002; Sobotka 2003; Van Imhoff and Keilman 2000), explicitly or implicitly regarding these period indicators as forecasts of…”
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“The period TFR produces an estimate of how many children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime based on the accumulated age-specific rates in a given time period, usually a calendar year, and is thus based on a synthetic cohort of women (Schoen 2004).”
BackgroundShand, J. M. (2008) · OhioLink ETD Center (Ohio Library and Information Network) · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Kye, B., Hwang, S.-J., Kim, J., et al. (2021) · Research in Social Stratification and Mobility · doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2021.100660 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
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Impact of Regional Factors on Cohort Fertility: New Estimations at the District Level in Germany
Bujard, M., & Scheller, M. (2017) · Comparative Population Studies · doi:10.12765/cpos-2017-07 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
The contribution of survival to changes in the net reproduction rate
Shen, T., Lazzari, E., & Canudas‐Romo, V. (2023) · Population Studies · doi:10.1080/00324728.2023.2187441 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
“The US period and cohort trends are less aligned than in other countries because the mean age at childbearing is relatively lower, making a 26-year shift a better fit (Schoen 2004).”
BackgroundMortality tempo-adjustment: Theoretical considerations and an empirical application
Luy, M. (2008) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-540-78520-0_11 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Parrado, E. A. (2015) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-08-097086-8.31128-x · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Russian Fertility Forecast: Approaches, Hypotheses, and Results
Kozlova, O., & Arkhangel’skii, V. N. (2021) · Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1134/s1019331621050051 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Трансформация возрастной модели рождаемости в Волгоградской области
Alpatov, A. V., & Митрофанова, И. В. (2023) · Monitoring obŝestvennogo mneniâ: èkonomičeskie i socialʹnye peremeny · doi:10.14515/monitoring.2023.6.2424 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
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Long-Term Effects of Childbearing Postponement
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“The work of Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) stimulated a broad research on fertility postponement consequences for fertility measures and population reproduction perspectives (e.g. Lesthaeghe and Willems 1999; Kohler and Philippov 2001; Zeng and Land 2002; Kohler and Ortega 2002a, 2002b; Lutz, O’Neill, and Scherbov 2003;…”
BackgroundДетерминанты субъективной неудовлетворенности жизнью: анализ российских данных за 1994-2021 годы
Назарова, И. Б. (2023) · Monitoring obŝestvennogo mneniâ: èkonomičeskie i socialʹnye peremeny · doi:10.14515/monitoring.2023.6.2433 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
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Short- and Long-Run Effects of a Sizable Child Subsidy: Evidence from RussiaPreprint
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“Adda, Dustmann, and Stevens (2017), Sobotka and Lutz (2011), and Schoen (2004) argue that the documented short-run e ect overestimates the impact of pro-natalist policies because it is driven by the rescheduling of birth, but not by the decisions of families to increase the overall number of…”
InfluentialTempo Effects and their Relevance in Demographic Analysis
Luy, M. (2011) · Comparative Population Studies · doi:10.12765/cpos-2010-11 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
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Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries
Gietel‐Basten, S., Sobotka, T., Zeman, K., Abbasi‐Shavazi, M. J., Adserà, A., Bavel, J. V., Berghammer, C., Choe, M. K., Frejka, T., Léridon, H., et al. (2021) · doi:10.1553/0x003d06e2 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)
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Amplified Changes: An Analysis of Four Dynamic Fertility Models
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“Rather, it may merely reflect the change in fertility tempo (Ní Bhrolcháin, 2011; Shoen, 2004).”
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Transparency in population forecasting
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Széllel szemben? - A magyar fertilitás jövőbeli kilátásai
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Heterogeneity in Hispanic Fertility: Confronting the Challenges of Estimation and Disaggregation
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Cross-sectional average length of life by parity: Country comparisons
Mogi, R., Lazzari, E., Nisén, J., & Canudas‐Romo, V. (2022) · Population Studies · doi:10.1080/00324728.2022.2049857 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“There are also well-known measures that aim to control for the effect of changing fertility timing on the TFR (Ryder 1964), for example the tempo-adjusted TFR (Bongaarts and Feeney 1998; Kohler and Ortega 2002; Schoen 2004; Bongaarts and Sobotka 2012).”
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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2005
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Demographic Measurement: General Issues and Measures of Fertility
Bhrolcháin, M. N. (2015) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-08-097086-8.31001-7
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Transformation of the Age Model of Fertility in the Regions of the Southern Federal District
Alpatov, A. V., & Митрофанова, И. В. (2025) · Studies on Russian Economic Development · doi:10.1134/s1075700724700588
“This indicator has shortcomings and has been criticized in a number of publications (see, for example, [9]).”
Gender Equality and Armed Conflict: A Critique of Total Fertility Rate as an Indicator
Svallfors, S. (2025) · Politics & Gender · doi:10.1017/s1743923x25000029
“…has been extensively discussed in demographic research (Bongaarts and Feeney 1998; Bongaarts and Sobotka 2012; Goldstein and Cassidy 2014, 2016; Goldstein, Sobotka, and Jasilioniene 2009; Myrskylä, Goldstein, and Cheng 2013; Ní Bhrol-cháin 1992; Rodríguez 2008; Schoen 2004; Sobotka and Lutz 2010).”
- Authors
- Schoen, R.
- Affiliations
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Schoen, Robert
- ORCID
- Schoen, Robert
- Venue
- Demography
- Publisher
- Duke University Press
- Published
- 2004-11-01
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 801-819
- ISSN
- 0070-3370 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-7790
- OpenAlex
- W2041768195
- Cited by
- 98
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2025: 3 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 3 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 12.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Demography (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Project Muse (Johns Hopkins University) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Keywords
- cohort fertility, fertility cycles, low fertility, model populations
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Birth Rate, Female, Fertility, Humans, Maternal Age, Middle Aged, Population Dynamics, Time Factors, United States, Models, Statistical, Cohort Studies, Cohort Effect, Developed Countries
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