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The Accuracy of Combining Judgemental and Statistical Forecasts
Abstract
Judgement based forecasts are widely used in practice either alone or in conjunction with computer prepared forecasts. This study empirically examines the improvement in accuracy which can be gained from combining judgemental forecasts, either with other judgemental or with quantitatively derived forecasts. Two judgemental forecasting approaches are used by each of two different groups in a laboratory setting to give four sets of judgemental forecasts for the 68 monthly time series of the M-competition. These are combined either with each other or with forecasts from deseasonalised single exponential smoothing. Combined forecasts are found to be more accurate than single forecasts with the greatest benefit realised at short forecast horizons and for easier (as opposed to harder) forecast series. Averaging was observed to be a far better way of combining judgemental forecasts than a judgemental, nonsystematic combination.
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Cites
Bates, J. M., & Granger, C. W. J. (1969) · Journal of the Operational Research Society · doi:10.1057/jors.1969.103 · Cited by 3,201
Cited by
Lobo, G. J. (1992) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/0169-2070(92)90082-k · Cited by 1,754
Alternative research paradigms in operations
Meredith, J. R., Raturi, A., Amoako‐Gyampah, K., & Kaplan, B. (1989) · Journal of Operations Management · doi:10.1016/0272-6963(89)90033-8 · Cited by 548
Forecasting and operational research: a review
Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K., Crone, S. F., & Syntetos, A. A. (2008) · Journal of the Operational Research Society · doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602597 · Cited by 287
Metadata
- Authors
- Lawrence, M. J., Edmundson, R. H., & O'Connor, M. J.
- Venue
- Management Science
- Published
- 1986-12
- Volume
- 32
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 1521-1532
- ISSN
- 0025-1909 (ISSN-L)
- 1526-5501
- OpenAlex
- W2022855030
- Cited by
- 182
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 12.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Lawrence, M. J., Edmundson, R. H., & O'Connor, M. J. (1986). The Accuracy of Combining Judgemental and Statistical Forecasts. Management Science. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.32.12.1521
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
