The Combination of Forecasts
Abstract
Two separate sets of forecasts of airline passenger data have been combined to form a composite set of forecasts. The main conclusion is that the composite set of forecasts can yield lower mean-square error than either of the original forecasts. Past errors of each of the original forecasts are used to determine the weights to attach to these two original forecasts in forming the combined forecasts, and different methods of deriving these weights are examined.
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- Authors
- Bates, J. M., & Granger, C. W. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Nottingham (GB)
- Venue
- Journal of the Operational Research Society
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 1969-12
- Volume
- 20
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 451-468
- ISSN
- 0160-5682 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-9360
- OpenAlex
- W1986528915
- Cited by
- 3,201
- References
- 7
- Citations by year
- 2026: 148 · 2025: 107 · 2024: 127 · 2023: 169 · 2022: 159 · 2021: 151 · 2020: 167 · 2019: 177 · 2018: 132 · 2017: 115 · 2016: 141 · 2015: 161 · 2014: 119 · 2013: 134 · 2012: 131
- FWCI
- 0.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of the Operational Research Society (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Grey System Theory Applications
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Statistical and numerical algorithms
- Keywords
- forecast combination, forecast weights, mean squared error, forecast error, forecast accuracy
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