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Cited by 852Air Quality and Health ImpactsAtmospheric chemistry and aerosolsFire effects on ecosystems

Estimated Global Mortality Attributable to Smoke from Landscape Fires

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Johnston, Fay H., Henderson, Sarah B., Chen, Yang, Randerson, James T., Marlier, Miriam, DeFries, Ruth S., Kinney, Patrick, Bowman, David M.J.S. +1 more·2012·Environmental Health Perspectives
DOI 10.1289/ehp.1104422PMC PMC3346787
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Abstract

Background: Forest, grass, and peat fires release approximately 2 petagrams of carbon into the atmosphere each year, influencing weather, climate, and air quality. Objective: We estimated the annual global mortality attributable to landscape fire smoke (LFS). Methods: Daily and annual exposure to particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from fire emissions was estimated globally for 1997 through 2006 by combining outputs from a chemical transport model with satellite-based observations of aerosol optical depth. In World Health Organization (WHO) subregions classified as sporadically affected, the daily burden of mortality was estimated using previously published concentration–response coefficients for the association between short-term elevations in PM2.5 from LFS (contrasted with 0 μg/m3 from LFS) and all-cause mortality. In subregions classified as chronically affected, the annual burden of mortality was estimated using the American Cancer Society study coefficient for the association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and all-cause mortality. The annual average PM2.5 estimates were contrasted with theoretical minimum (counterfactual) concentrations in each chronically affected subregion. Sensitivity of mortality estimates to different exposure assessments, counterfactual estimates, and concentration–response functions was evaluated. Strong La Niña and El Niño years were compared to assess the influence of interannual climatic variability. Results: Our principal estimate for the average mortality attributable to LFS exposure was 339,000 deaths annually. In sensitivity analyses the interquartile range of all tested estimates was 260,000–600,000. The regions most affected were sub-Saharan Africa (157,000) and Southeast Asia (110,000). Estimated annual mortality during La Niña was 262,000, compared with 532,000 during El Niño. Conclusions: Fire emissions are an important contributor to global mortality. Adverse health outcomes associated with LFS could be substantially reduced by curtailing burning of tropical rainforests, which rarely burn naturally. The large estimated influence of El Niño suggests a relationship between climate and the burden of mortality attributable to LFS.

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  • In the case of New Orleans, four months after Hurricane Katrina the population was 37% of the pre-disaster population of 437,186.

    “In the case of New Orleans, four months after Hurricane Katrina the population was 37 % of the pre-disaster population of 437 186.105”

    From The costs and losses of wildfires: a literature survey (2017) · cites this paper as [105]

    The Results and Materials and Methods passages in our copy address mortality from landscape-fire smoke and population estimates used in that analysis; page numbers are unavailable. Searches for New Orleans, Hurricane Katrina, the four-month population figure, and post-disaster displacement found no passage addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.78)

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Authors
Johnston, F. H., Henderson, S. B., Chen, Y., Randerson, J. T., Marlier, M., DeFries, R. S., Kinney, P., Bowman, D. M. J. S., & Brauer, M.
Affiliations
  • University of Tasmania (AU)
  • University of California, Irvine (US)
  • Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences,
  • Ecologie & Evolution (FR)
  • Columbia University (US)
  • University of British Columbia (CA)
Corresponding author
Johnston, Fay H.
ORCID
Venue
Environmental Health Perspectives
Publisher
American Chemical Society (ACS)
Published
2012-02-18
Volume
120
Issue
5
Pages
695-701
ISSN
  • 0091-6765 (ISSN-L)
  • 1552-9924
DOI
10.1289/ehp.1104422
PMC
PMC3346787
OpenAlex
W2089312949
Cited by
852
References
70
Citations by year
2026: 65 · 2025: 54 · 2024: 86 · 2023: 84 · 2022: 121 · 2021: 103 · 2020: 63 · 2019: 65 · 2018: 42 · 2017: 41 · 2016: 41 · 2015: 39 · 2014: 24 · 2013: 17 · 2012: 6
FWCI
19.09
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Environmental Health Perspectives (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, public-domain)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
  • cIRcle (University of British Columbia) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Open Collections
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
Keywords
forest fires, grassland fires, peatland fires, particulate matter, PM2.5, all-cause mortality, attributable mortality, fire emissions, aerosol optical depth, chemical transport model, concentration-response functions, La Niña, El Niño, sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia
MeSH terms
Air Pollutants, Environmental Exposure, Fires, Humans, Mortality, Particle Size, Smoke, Global Health

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