The costs and losses of wildfires: a literature survey

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In California, the number of structures destroyed in wildland fires between 2001 and 2015 ranged from 94 in 2010 to 5394 in 2003.

“For example, in California the number of structures destroyed in wildland fires between 2001 and 2015 range from 94 in 2010 to 5394 in 2003.25”

• cites [25] 25. Haefele et al. 2016. "Total Economic Valuation of the National Park Service Lands and Programs: Results of a Survey of The American Public." Colorado State University. http://webdoc.agsci.colostate.edu/DARE/PubLinks/NPSTotalEconValue.pdf 122 ibid 123 sourceCould not verify

  The passages from Sections 5 and 6 (pp. 20–21) concern survey results and the economic value of National Parks, not structures destroyed by California wildfires. Searches for the 2001–2015 range, the figures 94 and 5394, and California wildfire losses found no passage addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.76)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Travel cost analysis puts the consumer surplus per trip in a wide range based on multiple models, ranging from as low as $37.4 to as high as $327.5 in Zawacki et al.

“Travel cost analysis puts the consumer surplus per trip in a wide range based on multiple models, ranging from as low as $37.4 to as high as $327.5 in Zawacki et al., 123”

• cites [123] 123. Liu, J.C., Pereira G., Uhl, S.A., Bravo, M.A., and Bell, M.L. 2015. A systematic review of the physical health impacts from non-occupational exposure to wildfire smoke. Environmental Research 136: 120-132 sourceCould not verify

  The Results section on exposure assessment discusses wildfire-smoke monitoring and modelling, not travel costs or consumer surplus. Searches of our copy for Zawacki, the dollar amounts, and travel-cost analysis found no passage addressing the claimed per-trip estimates. (LLM, conf=0.78)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

It is not known how much land of each type must be modified each year.

“It is also not known how much land of each type must be modified each year.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Assuming each of the 3.2 million structures required 0.366 acres of defensible space, 91% of structures have implemented defensible space, and Montana estimates apply nationally, the cost would be between $1.7 billion and $53.3 billion to comply with FireWise.

“Assuming that each of these structures required 0.366 acres of defensible space (the average lot size for a new home 21 ); that 91 % of the structures have implemented defensible space, as seen in California; and that Montana estimates apply nationally, the cost would be between $1.7 billion and $53.3 billion to comply with FireWise.”

• cites [21] 21. Kent, Brian et al. 2003. "Social and Economic Issues of the Hayman Fire." USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-114. 2003. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/14904 113Not checked — no full text of the source

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Each of the 3.2 million residential structures at risk of wildfire required 0.366 acres of defensible space (the average lot size for a new home).
• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: 91% of the structures have implemented defensible space, as seen in California.
• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Montana estimates apply nationally.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Estimates similar to those at the federal level are not available for state and local governmental agencies.

“Estimates similar to those at the federal level are not available for state and local governmental agencies.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The data on preparedness is not complete; thus, the total cost is unknown.

“The data on preparedness is not complete; thus, the total cost is unknown.”

May combine two claims.

State and local government disaster assistance costs do not appear to be available in an aggregated form, making it difficult to estimate the total.

“At this time, these costs do not appear to be available in an aggregated form, making it difficult to estimate the total.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

It is not known to what extent these estimates for Western Montana are applicable to the rest of the WUI.

“It is not known to what extent these estimates for Western Montana are applicable to the rest of the WUI.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

It is not clear how much of the cost of each policy is attributable to wildfire.

“It is not clear how much of the cost of each policy is attributable to wildfire.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

There is no comprehensive list of regulations covering fire and wildland fire.

“There is no comprehensive list of regulations covering fire and wildland fire.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

There is no estimate of how much of the costs of building codes are associated with fire (and wildfire) protection.

“Nor is there any estimate of how much of the costs of building codes are associated with fire (and wildfire) protection.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The forms of legal defense for arsonists and judicial costs are unknown.

“Additionally, the forms of legal defense for arsonists and judicial costs are unknown”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Although an estimate for suppression at the municipal level can be estimated, the actual value is unknown.

“Although an estimate for suppression at the municipal level can be estimated, the actual value is unknown.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

While building codes are compiled by the 50 states, there is no complete sense of which portions are related to fire (and wildfire) and which are not.

“While building codes are compiled by the 50 states, there is no complete sense of which portions are related to fire (and wildfire) and which are not.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The estimates above do not take into account the cost of arresting an arsonist.

“Additionally, the estimates above do not take into account the cost of arresting an arsonist.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The effects of acute exposure to wildfire smoke is well studied, however studies on chronic exposure are not well represented in the literature.

“The effects of acute exposure to wildfire smoke is well studied, however studies on chronic exposure are not well represented in the literature.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

A number of other state and federal government entities along with universities and colleges have expenditures related to wildland fire, but an aggregated estimate would require substantial effort in collecting this data.

“A number of other state and federal government entities along with universities and colleges have expenditures related to wildland fire.Some of them may specify these expenditures in their budgets; however, an aggregated estimate would require substantial effort in collecting this data.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The actual number of wildfire arsonists in jail or prison are unknown.

“The actual number of wildfire arsonists in jail or prison are unknown.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The clear majority of articles on smoke exposure related deaths focus on individual fire events.

“The clear majority of articles on smoke exposure related deaths focus on individual fire events.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Long-term mortality due to wildfire smoke is not well understood.

“Due to the nature of smoke related deaths, the long-term mortality due to wildfire smoke is not well understood.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

While long-term effects of wildfires on civilian health are not well-understood, some studies have attempted to determine what effects there may be for firefighters.

“While long-term effects of wildfires on civilian health are not well-understood, some studies have attempted to determine what effects there may be for firefighters.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

There is not a comprehensive database tracking the number of structures burned and/or the value of property damaged.

“There is not a comprehensive database tracking the number of structures burned and/or the value of property damaged.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Wildfires frequently move into communities and burn buildings and infrastructure.

“Wildfires frequently move into communities and burn buildings and infrastructure.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

There is not a known database that tracks the impact to infrastructure, such as power lines, roads, and pipelines.

“There is not a known database that tracks the impact to infrastructure, such as power lines, roads, and pipelines.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Injuries related directly to wildfires, other than smoke exposure, are relatively infrequent when compared with urban fires.

“Injuries related directly to wildfires, other than smoke exposure, are relatively infrequent when compared with urban fires.”

May combine two claims.

There are no national estimates for the civilian population exposed to wildfires, and at what exposure level.

“There are no national estimates for the civilian population exposed to wildfires, and at what exposure level (e.g., smoke, flames, lost loved ones, lost house, etc.).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Injuries due to wildland fires are not uncommon.

“Injuries due to wildland fires are not uncommon.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

There is not a database that tracks structure damage comprehensively across the US.

“The damage to these structures is tracked at varying degrees, but there is not a database that tracks this information comprehensively across the US.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Short-term effects of wildfire smoke can only be estimated based on modeling or using hospital admissions.

“Short-term effects can only be estimated based on modeling or using hospital admissions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The effects of wildfires on soil have been well studied, but there is currently no literature quantifying the economic impact.

“The effects of wildfires on soil have been well studied, however there is currently no literature quantifying the economic impact.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The economic effects of business interruption due to wildland or WUI fires is not well documented, even for specific fires.

“The economic effects of business interruption due to wildland or WUI fires is not well documented, even for specific fires.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The acreage of land burned by vegetation type is unknown.

“The acreage of land burned by vegetation type, which would allow an estimate to be derived based on some basic assumptions of seed type used and amount of seed per acre, is unknown.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

There is not a comprehensive database of national loss estimates for agriculture.

“There is not a comprehensive database of national loss estimates for agriculture.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

There is not a strong understanding of the extent that wildfires or other disasters disrupt supply chains on an annual basis.

“There is not a strong understanding of the extent that wildfires or other disasters disrupt supply chains on an annual basis.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The literature on fire is even more lacking in estimates of evacuation costs and we know nothing about wildfire-urban interface fires in particular.

“The literature on fire is even more lacking in estimates of evacuation costs and we know nothing about wildfire-urban interface fires in particular.”

May combine two claims.

Assuming averages hold (total emissions 293 Tg CO2/year), structural fire CO2 emissions are dwarfed by wildland fires, and WUI fires are not separated out, the total cost of lost carbon sequestration is roughly $1.6 trillion using the UK SCC.

“Assuming then that the averages hold (the total emissions are 293 Tg CO2 per year) and CO2 emissions from structural fires are dwarfed by those in wildland fires, 96 and WUI fires are not separated out, the total cost of lost carbon sequestration can be estimated to be roughly $1.6 trillion using the UK SCC.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The average annual CO2 emissions from Wiedinmyer and Neff hold (total emissions are 293 Tg CO2 per year).
• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: CO2 emissions from structural fires are dwarfed by those in wildland fires.
• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: WUI fires are not separated out in the carbon estimate.

May combine two claims.

Data on floods attributable to post-fire effects are not well documented, making valuation impossible.

“Unfortunately, data on floods which can be attributed to post-fire effects are not well documented, making valuation impossible.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

National estimates do not exist for the cost of failed infrastructure during disasters, let alone WUI and wildland fires.

“Unfortunately, national estimates do not exist for the cost of failed infrastructure during disasters, let alone WUI and wildland fires.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Using estimates of daily costs of hurricane evacuation, number of evacuees, and length of evacuation, an average $3.0 billion in costs are incurred due to evacuation.

“Using this approach, an average $3.0 billion in costs are incurred due to evacuation.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The 'High' estimate for the costs is $62.8 billion.

“while the”

May combine two claims.

The three largest values for the 'Low' losses estimate and the 'High' losses estimate represent 98.6 % and 96.0 % of the total, respectively.

“The three largest values for the”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

For the 'High' value, the largest three includes defensible space costs, local fire department costs, and state suppression costs.

“For the”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

For the 'Low' losses value, the top three includes deaths, impact on housing prices, and timber loss.

“For the”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

The three largest values represent 65.1 % of the 'Low' value and 93.3 % of the 'High' value.

“The three largest values represent 65.1 % of the”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Table 4.2 has nine items that can be estimated for losses associated with WUI fires.

“Table 4.2 provides similar information for the losses associated with WUI fires, which has nine items that can be estimated.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The 'High' estimate for the losses alone is $285.0 billion.

“and the”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

There are eleven costs that can be estimated.

“There are eleven costs that can be estimated.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The 'Low' estimate for the losses alone is $63.5 billion.

“The”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

For the 'High' value, the top three includes deaths, evacuation, and the impact on housing prices.

“For the”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The 'Low' estimate for the costs amounts to $7.6 billion.

“The”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

An understanding of the functional relationship between fire interventions and the resulting net damages is needed to identify optimal levels of intervention.

“First, an understanding of the functional relationship between fire interventions and the resulting net damages is needed.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

In November 2016, a wildfire broke out in the Great Smoky Mountain National Park, Tennessee, killing 14 people and destroying 2400 homes.

“In November of 2016, a wildfire broke out in the Great Smoky Mountain National Park, Tennessee.This fire killed 14 people and destroyed 2400 homes. 34”

• cites [34] 34. Thomas, Douglas and David Butry. 2014 "Areas of the US Wildland-Urban Interface Threatened by Wildfire During the 2001-2010 Decade." Natural Hazards. 71(3): 1561-1585. 132 National Association of Realtors. Existing-Home Sales. <https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home- sales> 133 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The modern C+L model has been replaced by the cost plus net value change (C+NVC) model.

“The modern C+L model has been since replaced by the 'cost plus net value change' or 'C+NVC' model.6”

• cites [6] 6. Stockmann, Keith. 2007. "A Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Preventative Mitigation Options for Wildland Urban Interface Homes Threatened by Wildfire." Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers. http://scholarworks.umt.edu/etd/260.Not checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Measuring all possible interventions, their unit prices, and the damages related to wildland/WUI fires is a significant effort, regardless of scale.

“Second, measuring all possible interventions, their unit prices (costs), and the damages related to wildland/WUI fires is a significant effort, regardless of scale (e.g., national, state, community).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

At the federal level, US Forest Service and the Department of Interior spent $532.3 million on hazardous fuel treatments in FY2015.

“At the federal level, US Forest Service and the Department of Interior spent $532.3 million on hazardous fuel treatments in FY2015. 22”

• cites [22] 22. McCaffrey, Sarah, Alan Rhodes, and Melanie Stidham. 2015 "Wildfire Evacuation and its Alternatives: Perspectives from Four United States' Communities." International Journal of Wildland Fire. 24: 170-178. 114 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The C+L model illustrates that primary protection expenditures can be chosen to minimize the sum of primary protection expenditures plus the ensuing total liability (suppression costs plus wildfire losses) of wildfire management.

“The C+L model illustrates that primary protection expenditures can be chosen to minimize the sum of the primary protection expenditures plus the ensuing 'total liability' (suppression costs plus wildfire losses) of wildfire management.”

• cites [2] 2. Increased Risk of Other Hazards......................................................................... 3.2.Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Methodologically, the C+NVC model is appropriate for a variety of spatial scales.

“Methodologically, however, the C+NVC model is appropriate for a variety of spatial scales.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The consensus of the literature is that smoke from wildland fires has deleterious effects on the health of people exposed to it.

“The consensus of the literature is that smoke from wildland fires has deleterious effects on the health of people exposed to it, but the severity of that effect is still not well understood.”

• cites [27] 27. Mendes, Isabel, and Isabel Proença. 2011. "Measuring the social recreation per-day net benefit of the wildlife amenities of a national park: a count-data travel-cost approach." Environmental management 48(5): 920. 125 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [28] 28. Butry, David T., et al. 2001. "What is the price of catastrophic wildfire?." Journal of Forestry 99(11): 9- 17. 126 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [29] 29. Diaz, John M. 2012. "Economic Impacts of Wildfire". Southern Fire Exchange. https://fireadaptednetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/economic_costs_of_wildfires.pdf 127Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The minimum of the C+L model is optimal because for any other combination of primary protection expenditures, more will be spent on management and/or lost to fire damage.

“The minimum is optimal because for any other combination of primary protection expenditures, more will be spent on management and/or lost to fire damage.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The graphical depiction of the C+NVC is less useful for identifying the minimum C+NVC when presuppression expenditures are allowed to remain unconstrained.

“While the graphical depiction of the C+NVC is useful for illustration, it is less so for identifying the minimum C+NVC when presuppression expenditures are allowed to remain unconstrained.”

May combine two claims.

In 2013, career fire department expenditures amounted to $41.9 billion, and the value of volunteer (rural) fire departments is estimated at $94.9 billion.

“In 2013, it is estimated that career fire department expenditures amounted to $41.9 billion, and the value of volunteer (rural) fire departments is estimated at $94.9 billion.41”

• cites [41] 41. Johnson, M. D., J. L. Kellermann, and A. M. Stercho. 2010. Pest reduction services by birds in shade and sun coffee in Jamaica. Animal Conservation 13:140-147. 142 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

McCaffrey's review found that typically a majority of people surveyed in the WUI had implemented defensible space measures.

“McCaffrey 17 in her review of the literature found that typically a majority of people surveyed in the WUI had implemented defensible space measures.”

• cites [17] 17. Satterfield, Jamie. 2016. "Teens toying with matches started Tennessee wildfire," USA Today, Dec 9. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2016/12/09/sources-teens-toying-matches-started- tennessee-wildfire/95223326/Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

At the optimal level of intervention, any increase in intervention will not be fully offset by additional avoided damages, while decreases result in damages in excess of the expenditure savings.

“Again, as was the case with the graphical depiction, at the optimal level of intervention, any increase in intervention will not be fully offset by additional avoided damages, while decreases result in damages in excess of the expenditure savings.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

According to FEMA values, a total of $1.551 million in public assistance was disbursed for fire disaster declarations occurring in 2016.

“According to the FEMA values, a total of $1.551 million in public assistance was disbursed for fire disaster declarations occurring in 2016.”

• cites [37] 37. Desvousges, W., Smith, V.K., McGivney, M., 1983. A Comparison of Alternative Approaches to Estimating Recreation and Related Benefits of Water Quality Improvements. Economic Analysis Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC. 138Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Donovan and Rideout reformulate Sparhawk's original C+L model to allow for both primary protection (presuppression) and suppression to be independent inputs into the C+NVC model.

“Donovan and Rideout reformulate Sparhawk's original C+L model to allow for both primary protection ('presuppression') and suppression to be independent inputs into the C+NVC model.7”

• cites [7] 7. Stockmann, Keith, James Burchfield, Dave Calkin, and Tyron Venn. 2010. "Guiding Preventative Wildland Fire Mitigation Policy and Decisions with an Economic Modeling System." Forest Policy and Economics. 12(2): 147-154. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

In 2016, there were 37 disaster declarations related to fire with FEMA indicating that seven resulted in public assistance.

“In 2016, there were 37 disaster declarations related to fire with FEMA indicating that seven resulted in public assistance:”

• cites [37] 37. Desvousges, W., Smith, V.K., McGivney, M., 1983. A Comparison of Alternative Approaches to Estimating Recreation and Related Benefits of Water Quality Improvements. Economic Analysis Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC. 138Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

California was the only state with active defensible space ordinances and had a participation rate of 91%.

“The notable exception to that was California which was the only state with active defensible space ordinances and where the participation rate was 91 %.”

• cites [17] 17. Satterfield, Jamie. 2016. "Teens toying with matches started Tennessee wildfire," USA Today, Dec 9. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2016/12/09/sources-teens-toying-matches-started- tennessee-wildfire/95223326/Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

There exists a relatively broad range of literature that has examined the relationship between wildfire behavior and factors including climate and weather, topography, land use and land cover, socio-economics and demographics, fire weather indices, fuel treatment, other wildland/WUI management interventions, law enforcement, and locational characteristics.

“While not a focus of this report, there exists a relatively broad range of literature that has examined the relationship between wildfire behavior and factors, including climate and weather, topography, land use and land cover, socio-economics and demographics, fire weather indices, fuel treatment, other wildland/WUI management interventions, law enforcement, and locational characteristics (e.g.,”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

In FY2015, preparedness spending exceeded $1.4 billion, split between US Forest Service (78%) and the Department of Interior (22%).

“In FY2015, preparedness spending exceeded $1.4 billion dollars, split between US Forest Service (78 %) and the Department of Interior (22 %).11”

• cites [11] 11. Hall, John R. The Total Cost of Fire in the United States. National Fire Protection Association. 2014. 26 IbidNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Over 83,000 prescribed fires treated four million acres in 2015.

“Over 83 000 prescribed fires treated four million acres in 2015.23”

• cites [23] 23. Morton, Douglas C., Megan E. Roessing, Ann E. Camp, and Mary L. Tyrrell. 2003. Assessing the Environmental, Social, and Economic Impacts of Wildfire. GISF Research Paper 001. <http://gisf.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/wildfire_report(1).pdf> 115 National Fire and Aviation Management Web Applications (FAMWEB). SIT-209. <https://fam.nwcg.gov/fam-web/> 118 Stelloh, Tim. 2015. "Western Wildfires Trigger Evacuations in California, Oregon." NBC News. August 17. <http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/western-wildfires-evacuations-power-outages- heavy-smoke-n410761> 119Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The scale of analysis is not often discussed in the C+NVC literature.

“Another issue is the scale of analysis is not often discussed in the C+NVC literature.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

A smaller scale analysis may fail to account for spatial externalities-impacts to third parties outside the analysis area.

“A smaller scale analysis may also fail to account for spatial externalities-impacts to third parties outside the analysis area.”

May combine two claims.

At the federal level, in FY2015, suppression spending exceeded $1.0 billion, split between US Forest Service (70%) and the Department of Interior (30%), with FLAME account appropriations adding another $383 million.

“At the federal level, in FY2015, suppression spending exceeded $1.0 billion dollars, split between US Forest Service (70 %) and the Department of Interior (30 %), with FLAME account appropriations (i.e., wildfire suppression reserve accounts) adding another $383 million.38”

• cites [38] 38. Moore, W., McCarl, B., 1987. Off-site costs of soil erosion: a case study of the Willamette valley. West. J. Agric. Econom. 12 (1): 42-49. 139 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Hall estimates that 21% of multiple-peril homeowners policies are attributable to fire.

“Hall estimates that 21% of multiple-peril homeowners policies are attributable to fire.31”

• cites [31] 31. Mueller, Julie M., John B. Loomis, and Armando González-Cabán. 2009. "Do Repeated Wildfires Change Homebuyers'Demand for Homes in High-Risk Areas? A Hedonic Analysis of the Short-and Long- Term Effects of Repeated Wildfires on House Prices in Southern California." Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. 38(2): 155-172. DOI: 10.1007/s11146-007-9083-1. 129 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Analitis et al. found that small forest fires had no impact on mortality, while medium and large fires increased the number of respiratory and cardiovascular related deaths.

“For instance, Analitis et al. found that small forest fires had no impact on mortality, while medium and large fires increased the number of respiratory and cardiovascular related deaths. 55”

• cites [55] 55. Barreal, J. and M.L. Loureiro. 2015. "Modelling Spatial Patterns and Temporal Trends of Wildfires in Galicia (NW Spain)." Forest Systems 24(2): 1-18. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Data on civilian mortality due specifically to WUI fires are not available, but treating WUI fires as a subset of wildfires that encroach on populated areas suggests that 13 fatalities per year is a respectable initial estimate.

“Data on civilian mortality due specifically to WUI fires are not available, but treating WUI fires as a subset of wildfires that encroach on populated areas would suggest that the 13 fatalities per year is a respectable initial estimate.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The rate of wildland firefighter deaths per year is higher than civilian deaths, though not by much.

“The rate of wildland firefighter deaths per year is higher, though not by much.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

An updated version of the report, which included data up to 2006, found a total of 310 deaths over a 17-year period.

“An updated version of the report, which included data up to 2006, found a total of 310 deaths over a 17-year period.51”

• cites [51] 51. Ager, A.A., N.M. Vaillant, M.A. Finney. 2010. "A Comparison of Landscape Fuel Treatment Strategies to Mitigate Wildland Fire Risk in the Urban Interface and Preserve Old Forest Structure." Forest Ecology and Management 259: 1556-1570. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

In 2012-2013 there were an estimated 7253 degree granting institutions in the United States with an unknown number of them having fire science programs conducting research on wildland fire.

“In 2012-2013 there were an estimated 7253 degree granting institutions in the United States with an unknown number of them having fire science programs conducting research on wildland fire.foot_19”

• cites foot_19Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

In 2002, there were 342,372 convicted inmates of which 0.3% were convicted of arson.

“In 2002, there were 342 372 convicted inmates of which 0.3 % were convicted of arson.”

• cites [43] 43. Kostas D. Kalabokidis. 2000. Effects of Wildfire Suppression Chemicals on People and the Environment -A Review. Global Nest: The International Journal. 2 (2): 129-137. 146Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The wildfire at Great Smoky Mountain National Park in 2016 was set by teens who were later charged with arson.

“The wildfire at Great Smoky Mountain National Park in 2016 was set by teens who were latter charged with arson.42”

• cites [42] 42. Hougner, C., J. Colding, and T. Soderqvist. 2006. Economic valuation of a seed dispersal service in the Stockholm National Urban Park, Sweden. Ecological Economics 59:364-374. 143 Ramanujan, Krishna. 2012. Insect pollinators contribute $29 billion to U.S. farm income. Cornell. http://news.cornell.edu/stories/2012/05/insect-pollinators-contribute-29b-us-farm-income 144 USGS. USGS. Newsletter. 2006. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2006/3015/2006-3015.pdf 145 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Wildfires tend to occur in more rural areas, which may have a lower participation rate for data reporting.

“Note that wildfires tend to occur in more rural areas, which may have a lower participation rate for data reporting.”

May combine two claims.

The largest cause of death was vehicle related (23% due to aircraft accidents, 19% related to other vehicles).

“The largest cause of death was vehicle related (23 % due to aircraft accidents, 19 % related to other vehicles).”

• cites [50] 50. Adetona, Olorunfemi, et al. 2016. "Review of the health effects of wildland fire smoke on wildland firefighters and the public." Inhalation toxicology 28(3): 95-139. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Rappold et al. found an excess relative risk of 66% and 42% for congestive asthma and congestive heart failure respectively.

“Rappold et al. found an excess relative risk of 66 % and 42 % for congestive asthma and congestive heart failure respectively. 53”

• cites [53] 53. Analitis, Antonis, Ioannis Georgiadis, and Klea Katsouyanni. 2011. "Forest fires are associated with elevated mortality in a dense urban setting." Occupational and environmental medicine: oem-2010. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

In 2012, an estimated 15 civilians died as a direct result of a wildfire, close to the average of 13 people per year.

“In 2012, an estimated 15 civilians died as a direct result of a wildfire, 49 close to the average of 13 people per year.”

• cites [49] 49. Addington, R.N., S.J. Hudson, J.K Hiers, M.D. Hurteau, T.F. Hutcherson, G. Matusick, and J.M. Parker. 2015. International Journal of Wildland Fire 24: 778-783.Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Individual fire examples are useful in providing evidence of the impact wildfire smoke has on mortality rates, but they are not generalizable across the entire United States.

“Individual fire examples are useful in providing evidence of the impact wildfire smoke has on mortality rates, but they are not generalizable across the entire United States.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

This estimate is a lower bound estimate, as it assumes that all defendants use public defenders, which are generally less expensive than a private lawyer.

“This estimate is a lower bound estimate, as it assumes that all defendants use public defenders, which are, generally, less expensive than a private lawyer.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: All defendants use public defenders.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The percentages of cause of death remained relatively constant with the addition of the new data.

“The percentages of cause of death remained relatively constant with the addition of the new data.”

• cites [51] 51. Ager, A.A., N.M. Vaillant, M.A. Finney. 2010. "A Comparison of Landscape Fuel Treatment Strategies to Mitigate Wildland Fire Risk in the Urban Interface and Preserve Old Forest Structure." Forest Ecology and Management 259: 1556-1570. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) and less than 10 micrometers (PM10) are the most commonly researched components of smoke in the literature.

“Particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) and less than 10 micrometers (PM10) are the most commonly researched components of smoke in the literature.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The findings on cardiovascular mortality in firefighters responding to a fire are well documented.

“The findings on cardiovascular mortality in firefighters responding to a fire are well documented.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

California law requires homeowners to clear flammable vegetation within 30 feet of a building.

“For instance, California law requires homeowners to clear flammable vegetation within 30 feet of a building.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Smoke from a fire can be carried hundreds of miles away, and the effects of smoke exposure may persist well after the fire has been extinguished.

“Smoke from a fire can be carried hundreds of miles away, and the effects of smoke exposure may persist well after the fire has been extinguished.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In fiscal year 2016, the USDA reports that approximately $19.8 million was spent on research and development associated with wildland fire management.

“In fiscal year 2016, the USDA reports that approximately $19.8 million was spent on these items.47”

• cites [47] 47. Absher, James D., Jerry J. Vaske, and Lori B. Shelby. 2010. Residents' Responses to Wildland Fire Programs: A Review of Cognitive and Behavioral Studies. DIANE Publishing. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

These values increased to 85% and 124% respectively when incorporating socio-economic factors.

“These values increased to 85 % and 124 % respectively when incorporating socio-economic factors.”

• cites [53] 53. Analitis, Antonis, Ioannis Georgiadis, and Klea Katsouyanni. 2011. "Forest fires are associated with elevated mortality in a dense urban setting." Occupational and environmental medicine: oem-2010. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Historically, civilian casualties due to wildfires have been relatively low.

“Historically speaking, the civilian casualties due to wildfires have been relatively low.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Wildfire smoke contains several chemicals that can possibly cause adverse health effects.

“Wildfire smoke contains several chemicals that can possibly cause adverse health effects.”

May combine two claims.

An additional 178,035 inmates were unconvicted with 0.5% being charged with arson.

“An additional 178 035 inmates were unconvicted with 0.5 % being charged with arson.”

• cites [43] 43. Kostas D. Kalabokidis. 2000. Effects of Wildfire Suppression Chemicals on People and the Environment -A Review. Global Nest: The International Journal. 2 (2): 129-137. 146Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Of these deaths, 29% were a result of burnover and 21% were heart attacks.

“Of these deaths, 29 % were a result of burnover and 21 % were heart attacks.”

• cites [50] 50. Adetona, Olorunfemi, et al. 2016. "Review of the health effects of wildland fire smoke on wildland firefighters and the public." Inhalation toxicology 28(3): 95-139. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

According to NIFC, 4312 structures were destroyed by wildfires in 2016, but it does not provide a dollar estimate.

“According to NIFC, a total of 4312 structures were destroyed by wildfires in 2016, but it does not provide a dollar estimate of the losses.85”

• cites [85] 85. Gorte, Ross. 2013. "The Rising Cost of Wildfire Protection," Headwater Economics.Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

These findings are aligned with what is found in the literature survey of Liu et al., although they found that cardiovascular related deaths had mixed evidence for a significant effect.

“These findings are aligned with what is found in the literature survey of Liu et al, although they found that cardiovascular related deaths had mixed evidence for a significant effect. 56”

• cites [56] 56. Benda, Lee, et al. 2003. "Effects of post-wildfire erosion on channel environments, Boise River, Idaho." Forest Ecology and Management 178(1): 105-119. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Analitis et al. noted that PM concentrations were not sufficient to completely explain their findings.

“Analitis et al. noted that PM concentrations were not sufficient to completely explain their findings.”

• cites [55] 55. Barreal, J. and M.L. Loureiro. 2015. "Modelling Spatial Patterns and Temporal Trends of Wildfires in Galicia (NW Spain)." Forest Systems 24(2): 1-18. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

These effects have been observed to last long after the fire, with 40% showing signs up to 1.5 years after the event.

“These effects have been observed to last long after the fire, with 40 % showing signs up to 1.5 years after the event. 78”

• cites [78] 78. Doris J. James, "Profile of Jail Inmates,2002," Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report, October 12, 2004, https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/pji02.pdf FEMA. "Disaster Relief Fund: Monthly Report," https://www.fema.gov/media- library/assets/documents/31789Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Rates of PTSD among firefighters range from 13% to 20%, with 20% experiencing burnout.

“Rates of PTSD among firefighters range from 13 % 79 to 20 %, 80 with 20 % experiencing burnout 81 .”

• cites [79] 79. FEMA. "Tennessee Wildfires (DR-4293)." https://www.fema.gov/disaster/4293 FEMA. Disaster Declarations, https://www.fema.gov/disastersNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [80] 80. Fernandes, P.M., and H.S. Botelho. 2003. "A Review of Prescribed Burning Effectiveness in Fire Hazard Reduction." International Journal of Wildland Fire 12: 117- 128. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [81] 81. Ferreira-Leite, F., A. Bento-Goncalves, A. Vieira, A. Nunes, and L. Lourenco. 2016. "Incidence and Recurrence of Large Forest Fires in Mainland Portugal." Natural Hazards 84: 1035-1053. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

This finding is corroborated by Adetona et al. while Kochi et al. found that there were 133 excess deaths in the 2003 southern California wildfires due to cardiorespiratory causes.

“This finding is corroborated by Adetona et al. 57 while Kochi et al. found that there were 133 excess deaths in the 2003 southern California wildfires due to cardiorespiratory causes. 58”

• cites [57] 57. Britton, Carla Lea. 2010. "Risk factors for injury among federal wildland firefighters in the United States." sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [58] 58. Brosofske, K.D., D.T. Cleland, and S.C. Saunders. 2007. "Factors Influencing Modern Wildfire Occurrence in the Mark Twain National Forest, Missouri." Southern Journal of Applied Forestry 31(2): 73-84. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Cardiovascular symptoms and birth weight showed inconsistent results in the literature.

“Cardiovascular symptoms (six significant findings out of 14 studies) and birth weight (one significant finding out of two studies) showed inconsistent results in the literature.”

• cites [67] 67. Coffman, Makena, and Ilan Noy. 2012. "Hurricane Iniki: measuring the long-term economic impact of a natural disaster using synthetic control." Environment and Development Economics 17(2): 187-205. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The same paper estimated the total cost due to fatalities and injuries in wildfires as roughly $148 million.

“The same paper estimated the total cost due to fatalities and injuries in wildfires as roughly $148 million.”

• cites [64] 64. California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. 2015 Wildfire Activity Statistics. 2016.Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Higher instances of asthma attacks, coughing, wheezing, other respiratory symptoms, and medication use were commonly reported.

“Higher instances of asthma attacks were commonly reported, along with coughing, wheezing, and other respiratory symptoms, as well as dispensation or use of medication.”

• cites [67] 67. Coffman, Makena, and Ilan Noy. 2012. "Hurricane Iniki: measuring the long-term economic impact of a natural disaster using synthetic control." Environment and Development Economics 17(2): 187-205. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

It is estimated that 95% of the Chisolm fire health impact value was due to increased mortality risk.

“It is estimated that 95 % of this value was due to increased mortality risk.”

• cites [70] 70. D'Andrea, M., P. Fiorucci, and T.P. Holmes. 2010. "A Stochastic Forest Fire Model for Future Land Cover Scenarios Assessment." Natural Hazards Earth Systems Sciences 10: 2161-2167. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Although most literature focuses on all firefighters, or only urban firefighters, Liu et al. found that the respiratory effects for wildland firefighters were similar to urban firefighters.

“Although most literature focuses on all firefighters, or only urban firefighters, the work of Liu et al. found that the respiratory effects for wildland firefighters were similar to urban firefighters. 59”

• cites [59] 59. Bühler, M.D., M. Curth, and L.A. Garibaldi. 2013. "Demography and Socioeconomic Vulnerability Influence Fire Occurrence in Bariloche (Argentina)." Landscape and Urban Planning 110: 64-73. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

While the benefits and value of natural amenities are well understood at a national level, the effects of wildland and WUI fires are not well documented.

“While the benefits and value of natural amenities are well understood at a national level, the effects of wildland and WUI fires are not well documented.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

A travel cost study on the impact of wildland and prescribed fires in New Mexico by Hesselna et al. found that the value of a forest in terms of trips after a fire was not only dependent on time, but also the reason for the trip.

“A travel cost study on the impact of wildland and prescribed fires in New Mexico by Hesselna et al. found that the value of a forest in terms of trips after a fire was not only dependent on time, but also the reason for the trip.127”

• cites [127] 127. Mangan, Richard. 1999. "Wildland Fire Fatalities in the United States." https://www.fs.fed.us/fire/safety/ref_material/content/fatalities.pdfNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In 2017, agriculture losses due to a fire in Texas were estimated at $21 million.

“In 2017, agriculture losses due to a fire in Texas were estimated at $21 million.101”

• cites [101] 101. Hougner, C., J. Colding, and T. Soderqvist. 2006. Economic valuation of a seed dispersal service in the Stockholm National Urban Park, Sweden. Ecological Economics 59:364- 374. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The total economic value of the National Park Service is estimated at roughly $92 billion at a minimum.

“The total economic value of the National Park Service is estimated at roughly $92 billion dollars at a minimum.121”

• cites [121] 121. Lindell, Michael, Jung Eun Kang, and Carla Prater. 2011. "The Logistics of Household Hurricane Evacuation." Natural Hazards. 58: 1093-1109. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

A study on low-intensity hurricanes from 1996 to 1998 estimated an average of $79 billion in lost output due to business interruption.

“A study on low-intensity hurricanes from 1996 to 1998 estimated an average of $79 billion in lost output due to business interruption.foot_28”

• cites foot_28Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

An estimate of total erosion costs per year (including agricultural erosion) from Pimentel et al. is around $45 billion.

“An estimate of total erosion costs per year (including agricultural erosion) from Pimentel et al. puts the value at around $45 billion dollars. 89”

• cites [89] 89. Groen, Amy H., and Scott W. Woods. 2008. "Effectiveness of aerial seeding and straw mulch for reducing post-wildfire erosion, north-western Montana, USA." International Journal of Wildland Fire 17(5): 559-571. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The study finds no evidence of the Hayman fire having an impact on the regional economy (in terms of wages, employment, and retail sales).

“The study finds no evidence of the Hayman fire having an impact on the regional economy (in terms of wages, employment, and retail sales).”

• cites [117] 117. Kyle, Gerard T., Gene L. Theodori, James D. Absher, and Jinhee. 2010. "The Influence of Home and Community Attachment on Firewise Behavior." Society & Natural Resources. 23(11): 1075-1092. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The value per trip increased for hikers as the forest recovered from a crown fire.

“but the value per trip increased for hikers”

• cites [127] 127. Mangan, Richard. 1999. "Wildland Fire Fatalities in the United States." https://www.fs.fed.us/fire/safety/ref_material/content/fatalities.pdfNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Eighteen years after Hurricane Iniki, Coffman and Noy estimated that Kauai had a 12% smaller population than had the hurricane not occurred, with a proportional loss of jobs.

“Eighteen years after landfall Coffman and Noy estimated that the island had a 12 % smaller population than had the hurricane not occurred, with a proportional loss of jobs.106”

• cites [106] 106. Jones, Benjamin et al. 2016. "Wildfire Smoke Health Costs: A Methods Case Study for a Southwestern US 'Mega-Fire'." Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy. 5(2): 181-199. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21606544.2015.1070765 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

During 1998, 499,000 acres were burned in Florida, resulting in between $709.42 and $1212.42 per acre.

“During that year, 499 000 acres were burned in Florida, resulting in between $709.42 and $1212.42 per acre.”

• cites [98] 98. Holmes, T.P., and D.E. Calkin. 20134. "Econometric Analysis for Fire Suppression Production Functions for Large Wildland Fires." International Journal of Wildland Fire 22: 246-255.Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Travel cost analysis puts the consumer surplus per trip from $52.58 to $193.74 in Mendes et al.

“and from $52.58 to $193.74 in Mendes et al. 124”

• cites [124] 124. Loomis, John, et al. 2000. "Measuring the total economic value of restoring ecosystem services in an impaired river basin: results from a contingent valuation survey." Ecological Economics 33(1): 103-117. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The difference in value of National Park Service geographic holdings beyond recreational use is made up in the value American households place on knowing these lands exist and will exist for subsequent generations.

“The difference is made up in the”

• cites [122] 122. Liu, Diane, et al. 1992. "The effect of smoke inhalation on lung function and airway responsiveness in wildland fire fighters." American Review of Respiratory Disease 146: 1469-1469. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Both hikers and mountain bikers typically saw a decrease in the number of trips per hiker as the forest recovered from a crown fire.

“Both hikers and mountain bikers typically saw a decrease in the number of trips per hiker as the forest recovered from a crown fire”

• cites [127] 127. Mangan, Richard. 1999. "Wildland Fire Fatalities in the United States." https://www.fs.fed.us/fire/safety/ref_material/content/fatalities.pdfNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Of the $62 billion related to geographic holdings of the National Park Service, less than half represents recreational use.

“Of the $62 billion related to geographic holdings, less than half represents recreational use.”

• cites [122] 122. Liu, Diane, et al. 1992. "The effect of smoke inhalation on lung function and airway responsiveness in wildland fire fighters." American Review of Respiratory Disease 146: 1469-1469. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

National estimates for insect pollination are around $29 billion in farm income in 2010.

“National estimates for insect pollination are around $29 billion in farm income in 2010.143”

• cites [143] 143. pdf National Interagency Fire Center. "Prescribed Fires and Acres by Agency." https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_prescribed.html. Accessed 10 July 2017.Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The ability of birds to naturally reseed has been valued at $2115 to $9450 per hectare based on a study for Eurasian Jays in Stockjolm National Urban Park in Sweden.

“The ability of birds to naturally reseed has been valued at $2115 to $9450 per hectare based on a study for Eurasian Jays in Stockjolm National Urban Park in Sweden.142”

• cites [142] 142. National Association of Insurance Commissioners. 2017 "Dwelling Fire, Homeowners Owner-Occupied, and Homeowners Tenant and Condominium/Cooperative Unit Owner's Insurance Report: Data for 2014." National Association of Realtors. Existing-Home Sales. <https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales> National Fire and Aviation Management Web Applications (FAMWEB). SIT-209. <https://fam.nwcg.gov/fam-web/> National Interagency Coordination Center. Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report: 2016. https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/intelligence/2016_Statssumm/annual_report_201 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Watershed health and river fauna are well represented in the literature.

“Watershed health and river fauna are well represented in the literature.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Thomas and Butry estimate that an additional 2.5 million residential structures were within the vicinity of two or more fires or 247 500 per year on average.

“An additional 2.5 million were within the vicinity of two or more fires or 247 500 per year on average.131”

• cites [131] 131. Mercer, D.E., J.P. Prestemon, D.T. Butry, and J.M. Pye. 2007. "Evaluating Alternative Prescribed Burning Policies to Reduce Net Economic Damages from Wildfire." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 89(1): 63-77. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Impacts on residential sales prices are likely to vary from region to region.

“Impacts are likely to vary from region to region.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Loomis et al. found that the willingness to pay for better watershed services using a contingent valuation survey for a 45-mile section of the Platte river.

“Loomis et al. found that the willingness to pay for better watershed services using a contingent valuation survey for a 45-mile section of the Platte river.136”

• cites [136] 136. Moore, D., Copes, R., Fisk, R., Joy, R., Chan, K., & Brauer, M. 2006. Population health effects of air quality changes due to forest fires in British Columbia in 2003: estimates from physician-visit billing data. Canadian Journal of Public Health/Revue Canadienne de Sante'e Publique, 105-108. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Specific studies exist for local regions, not all of which fall within the United States.

“Specific studies exist for local regions, not all of which fall within the United States.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Similar studies found $196 million per person annually for lake preservation.

“Similar studies found $196 million per person annually for lake preservation, 137”

• cites [137] 137. Moore, W., McCarl, B., 1987. Off-site costs of soil erosion: a case study of the Willamette Valley. West. J. Agric. Econom. 12 (1): 42-49. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

There is not a public database that tracks the total cost of military wildfire incidents.

“there is not a public database that tracks the total cost of these incidents.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Mueller et al. estimate that an initial wildfire incident reduces house prices by about 10 %.

“Mueller et al. estimate that an initial wildfire incident reduces house prices by about 10 %”

• cites [128] 128. McCaffrey, Sarah. "Crucial Factors Influencing Public Acceptance of Fuels Treatments." 2009. http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/download/36075.pdf.Not checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Other research has suggested that homebuyers are, largely, unaware of wildfire risk.

“However, other research has suggested that homebuyers are, largely, unaware of wildfire risk.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In the Champ et al. study, only 13 % identified themselves as being in an extreme or high risk area when in fact it was 27 %.

“Only 13 % identified themselves as being in an extreme or high risk area when in fact it was 27 %.”

• cites [129] 129. Mendes, Isabel, and Isabel Proença. 2011. "Measuring the social recreation per-day net benefit of the wildlife amenities of a national park: a count-data travel-cost approach." Environmental Management 48(5): 920. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

For coffee farms in Jamaica, birds have been found to elevate farm income by $310 per hectare-year by eating crop damaging insects.

“and $310 per hectare-year 141 by eating crop damaging insects.”

• cites [141] 141. National Association of Insurance Commissioners. "Statistical Compilation of Annual Statement Information for Property/Casualty Insurance Companies in 2015." 2017.Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Proximity to dangerous topography was associated with an increase in the sales price of a home.

“This paper also identified that proximity to dangerous topography was, actually, associated with an increase in the sales price of a home”

• cites [129] 129. Mendes, Isabel, and Isabel Proença. 2011. "Measuring the social recreation per-day net benefit of the wildlife amenities of a national park: a count-data travel-cost approach." Environmental Management 48(5): 920. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Thomas and Butry estimate that between 2001 and 2010 4.8 million residential structures were within the vicinity of a wildfire or 481 800 per year on average.

“Thomas and Butry estimate that between 2001 and 2010 4.8 million residential structures were within the vicinity of a wildfire or 481 800 per year on average.”

• cites [131] 131. Mercer, D.E., J.P. Prestemon, D.T. Butry, and J.M. Pye. 2007. "Evaluating Alternative Prescribed Burning Policies to Reduce Net Economic Damages from Wildfire." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 89(1): 63-77. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Similar studies found $526 to preserve the Mono Lake ecosystem.

“$526 to preserve the Mono Lake ecosystem, 138”

• cites [138] 138. Moreira, F., F.X. Catry, F. Rego, and F. Bacao. 2010. "Size-Dependent Pattern of Wildfire Ignitions in Portugal: When Do Ignitions Turn into Big Fires?" Landscape Ecology 25: 1405-1417. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Various other studies on localized valuations exist in the literature.

“Various other studies on localized valuations exist in the literature.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

It is not reasonable to assume that the significant factors in the New Mexico study are relevant nationwide.

“nor is it reasonable to assume that the significant factors in the New Mexico study are relevant nationwide.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In the Champ et al. study, homeowners tended to underestimate their wildfire risk with 21 % believing they had a low risk when in fact only 1 % had a low risk.

“In the same study, homeowners tended to underestimate their wildfire risk with 21 % believing they had a low risk when in fact only 1 % had a low risk.”

• cites [129] 129. Mendes, Isabel, and Isabel Proença. 2011. "Measuring the social recreation per-day net benefit of the wildlife amenities of a national park: a count-data travel-cost approach." Environmental Management 48(5): 920. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

No national assessments of the overall losses in tourism value due to wildfire exist.

“No national assessments of the overall losses in tourism value due to wildfire exist”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Mueller et al. estimate that a second fire reduces house prices by nearly 23 %.

“while a second fire reduces house prices by nearly 23 %.128”

• cites [128] 128. McCaffrey, Sarah. "Crucial Factors Influencing Public Acceptance of Fuels Treatments." 2009. http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/download/36075.pdf.Not checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

For coffee farms in Jamaica, birds have been found to elevate farm income by $75 per hectare-year by eating crop damaging insects.

“For coffee farms in Jamaica, birds have been found to elevate farm income by $75 per hectare-year 140”

• cites [140] 140. Mueller, Julie M., John B. Loomis, and Armando González-Cabán. 2009. "Do Repeated Wildfires Change Homebuyers' Demand for Homes in High-Risk Areas? A Hedonic Analysis of the Short-and Long-Term Effects of Repeated Wildfires on House Prices in Southern California." Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. 38(2): 155-172. DOI: 10.1007/s11146-007-9083-1. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

No estimates for other reasons for visits (camping, day trips) were found.

“No estimates for other reasons for visits (camping, day trips) were found”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

These losses culminate in the loss of ecosystem services for the WUI region.

“These losses culminate in the loss of ecosystem services for the WUI region.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: WUI and wildland fires destroy habitat, vital ecological features, and kill or displace local wildlife for potentially significant periods of time.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Similar studies found $415 per person to increase Salmon in the San Joaquin river.

“$415 per person to increase Salmon in the San Joaquin river.139”

• cites [139] 139. Morton, Douglas C., Megan E. Roessing, Ann E. Camp, and Mary L. Tyrrell. 2003. Assessing the Environmental, Social, and Economic Impacts of Wildfire. GISF Research Paper 001. <http://gisf.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/wildfire_report(1).pdf>Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Military operations have developed wildland fire management plans such as the one for training lands for the US Army in Hawaii.

“Military operations have even developed wildland fire management plans such as the one for training lands for the US Army in Hawaii.134”

• cites [134] 134. Moody, John A., Deborah A. Martin, and Susan H. Cannon. 2008. "Post-wildfire erosion response in two geologic terrains in the western USA." Geomorphology 95(3): 103-118. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In 2015, a military flare ignited a wildfire at Camp Grayling in Michigan.

“In 2015, a military flare ignited a wildfire at Camp Grayling in Michigan.133”

• cites [133] 133. Miller, C., and A.A. Ager. 2013. "A Review of Recent Advances in Risk Analysis for Wildfire Management." International Journal of Wildland Fire 22: 1-14. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Donovan et al. illustrated that the dissemination of wildfire risk information can reverse the relationship between proximity to dangerous topography and sales price.

“however, Donovan et al. illustrated that the dissemination of wildfire risk information can reverse this relationship.130”

• cites [130] 130. Mendes, I. 2010. "A Theoretical Economic Model for Choosing Efficient Wildfire Suppression Strategies." Forest Policy and Economics 12: 323-329. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Despite the availability of individual studies, determining a national value is difficult due to the absence of nation-wide studies, and the localized nature of the services in question.

“Despite the availability of individual studies, determining a national value is difficult due to the absence of nation-wide studies, and the localized nature of the services in question.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Ecosystem services are difficult to quantify in terms of monetary value.

May combine two claims.

Following a fire, there are increased risks for flooding, debris flow, landslides, invasive species, erosion, and altered water quality.

“Following a fire, there are increased risks for flooding, debris flow, landslides, invasive species, erosion, and altered water quality.144”

• cites [144] 144. National Interagency Fire Center. 2016. Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report. https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/intelligence/2016_Statssumm/intro_summary16. pdf National Wildlife Federation. 2017. "Ecosystem Services." https://www.nwf.org/Wildlife/Wildlife-Conservation/Ecosystem-Services.aspxNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The National Association of Realtors estimates the mean sales price for a home in 2015 was $267 300.

“Additionally, the National Association of Realtors estimates the mean sales price for a home in 2015 was $267 300.132”

• cites [132] 132. Mercer, D.E., and J.P. Prestemon. 2005. "Comparing Production Function Models for Wildfire Risk Analysis in the Wildland-Urban Interface." Forest Policy and Economics 7: 782-795. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Burned debris and chemicals affect water quality.

“Burned debris and chemicals affect water quality.”

May combine two claims.

Pilots deploying the chemical have noted eye and nasal irritation, though chemical levels were below threshold values.

“Pilots deploying the chemical have noted eye and nasal irritation, though chemical levels were below threshold values.”

• cites [148] 148. Pope III, C. Arden, et al. 2002. "Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution." Jama 287(9): 1132-1141. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

There is not a database tracking information on the impact that wildfires have on tax bases.

“Additionally, there is not a database tracking this type of information.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

All studies focused on short-term effects, with no mention of the long-term effects of exposure.

“All studies focused on short-term effects, with no mention of the long-term effects of exposure.”

May combine two claims.

There is little impact of fire retardants on air quality, and no impact on human health unless chemical is deployed directly on people.

“There is little impact on air quality, and no impact on human health unless chemical is deployed directly on people.”

• cites [148] 148. Pope III, C. Arden, et al. 2002. "Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution." Jama 287(9): 1132-1141. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

BAER teams develop reports on the conditions that a wildfire has created.

“In addition to creating a plan of action, these teams also develop reports on the conditions that a wildfire has created.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

There is not a strong understanding of the impact that wildfires have on tax bases.

“There is not a strong understanding of the impact that wildfires have on tax bases.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Housing prices can be impacted by wildfires.

“Housing prices can be impacted by wildfires”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

There is no national aggregated database tracking the occurrence of post fire incidents nor is there any national cost data associated with these incidents.

“There is no national aggregated database tracking the occurrence of post fire incidents nor is there any national cost data associated with these incidents.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

It is not clear to what extent wildfires impact housing assessments and taxes.

“however, it is not clear to what extent it impacts housing assessments and taxes.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

While the toxicity of fire retardants to aquatic ecosystems is established, the overall impacts, economically and in practice, of these effects are not well documented.

“While the toxicity of fire retardants to aquatic ecosystems is established, the overall impacts, economically and in practice, of these effects are not well documented.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Burned Area Emergency Rehabilitation (BAER) teams have been developed in order to address these post-fire risks.

“Burned Area Emergency Rehabilitation (BAER) teams have been developed in order to address these post-fire risks.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

One study found ammonia to be the primary cause of toxicity to aquatic ecosystems.

“One study found ammonia to be the primary cause, 150”

• cites [150] 150. Prestemon, J.P., and D.T. Butry. 2005. "Time to Burn: Modeling Wildland Arson as an Autoregressive Crime Function." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 87(3): 756-770. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The cause of eye and nasal irritation in pilots may simply be the chemical odor.

“The cause in these cases may simply be the chemical odor.148”

• cites [148] 148. Pope III, C. Arden, et al. 2002. "Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution." Jama 287(9): 1132-1141. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Calfee and Little found the CTS-R chemical to be phototoxic to fathead minnows.

“while Calfee and Little found the CTS-R chemical to be phototoxic to fathead minnows.151”

• cites [151] 151. Prestemon, J.P., J.M. Pye, D.T. Butry, T.P. Holmes, and D.E. Mercer. 2002. "Understanding Broadscale Wildfire Risks in a Human-Dominated Landscape." Forest Science 48(4): 685-693. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

The effects of fire retardants on terrestrial ecosystems is negligible based on actual use, though some plants may be more sensitive.

“The effects on terrestrial ecosystems is negligible based on actual use, 145,146 though some plants may be more sensitive.147”

• cites [145] 145. Neary, Daniel G., Gerald J. Gottfried, and Peter F. Ffolliott. 2003 "Post-wildfire watershed flood responses." Proceedings of the 2nd International Fire Ecology Conference, Orlando, Florida. NFPA. 2014. "Intentional Fires," April. http://www.nfpa.org/news-and-research/fire- statistics-and-reports/fire-statistics/fire-causes/arson-and-juvenile-firesetting/intentional- firesNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

• cites [146] 146. Pfurtscheller, C and R Schwarze. 2008. "Estimating the Costs of Emergency Services During Flood Events." 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence: Managing Flood Risk, Reliability, and Vulnerability. Toronto, Canada.Not checked yet

  Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.

• cites [147] 147. Pimentel, David, et al. 1995. "Environmental and economic costs of soil erosion and conservation benefits." Science-AAAS-Weekly Paper Edition 267.5201: 1117-1122. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The health and environmental impacts of the fire retardants used in fighting WUI and wildland fires are well understood.

“The health and environmental impacts of the fire retardants used in fighting WUI and wildland fires are well understood.”

May combine two claims.

The overall effect of fire retardants on people is throat irritation and breathing difficulty due to ammonia gas release, although these are usually temporary in nature.

“The overall effect is throat irritation and breathing difficulty due to ammonia gas release, although these are usually temporary in nature.”

• cites [148] 148. Pope III, C. Arden, et al. 2002. "Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution." Jama 287(9): 1132-1141. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source