Cited by 823Statistical Methods in EpidemiologyMeta-analysis and systematic reviewsStatistical Methods in Clinical Trials

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Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 2: Prognostic Factor Research

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Riley, Richard D., Hayden, Jill A., Steyerberg, Ewout W., Moons, Karel G. M., Abrams, Keith, Kyzas, Panayiotis A., Malats, Núria, Briggs, Andrew, Schroter, Sara, Altman, Douglas G., Hemingway, Harry, for the PROGRESS Group·2013·PLoS Medicine

DOI 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001380PMC PMC3564757

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Abstract

Prognostic factor research aims to identify factors associated with subsequent clinical outcome in people with a particular disease or health condition.In this article, the second in the PROGRESS series, the authors discuss the role of prognostic factors in current clinical practice, randomised trials, and developing new interventions, and explain why and how prognostic factor research should be improved.The Guidelines and Guidance section contains advice on conducting and reporting medical research.

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Figure 1 Tumour grade as a prognostic factor in breast cancer. Kaplan-Meier curves for disease-free survival for three groups of breast cancer patients defined by tumour grade status (1, 2, or 3). Curves are derived from 246 breast cancer patients treated with tamoxifen who had 94 recurrences or deaths over a possible 7 years of follow-up (reproduced with published data relating to Schumacher et al [1]). The distinct curves, significant log rank result, and hazard ratio estimates suggests tumour grade is a prognostic factor, as it identifies three groups of patients with a different average prognosis.CC BY · PubMed Central

Figure 2 Evaluation of whether homocysteine is a prognostic factor, and whether modifying it improves clinical outcome in patients with coronary disease (drawn from data in [35]). Path element adapted from Chart 7.1 in the Cooksey report (2006) http://bit.ly/Ro27rL (made available for use and re-use through the Open Government License).CC BY · PubMed Central

Figure 3 Discovery of prognostic factors: a genome-wide association study of survival among people with breast cancer, and replication in 15 studies (Mid-figure forest plot based on example plots in [4]. Path element adapted from Chart 7.1 in the Cooksey report (2006) http://bit.ly/Ro27rL (made available for use and re-use through the Open Government License).CC BY · PubMed Central

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Dichotomizing continuous predictors in multiple regression: a bad idea
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Authors: Riley, R. D., Hayden, J. A., Steyerberg, E. W., Moons, K. G. M., Abrams, K., Kyzas, P. A., Malats, N., Briggs, A., Schroter, S., Altman, D. G., Hemingway, H., & for the PROGRESS Group
Affiliations: University of Birmingham (GB)
Dalhousie University (CA)
Erasmus MC (NL)
University Medical Center Utrecht (NL)
University of Leicester (GB)
North Manchester General Hospital (GB)
Spanish National Cancer Research Centre (ES)
University of Glasgow (GB)
BMJ Group (United Kingdom) (GB)
University of Oxford (GB)
University College London (GB)
Corresponding author: Riley, Richard D.
ORCID: Riley, Richard D.
Hayden, Jill A.
Steyerberg, Ewout W.
Moons, Karel G. M.
Abrams, Keith
Kyzas, Panayiotis A.
Malats, Núria
Briggs, Andrew
Schroter, Sara
Altman, Douglas G.
Hemingway, Harry
Venue: PLoS Medicine
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Published: 2013-02-05
Volume: 10
Issue: 2
Pages: e1001380
ISSN: 1549-1277 (ISSN-L)
1549-1676
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001380
PMC: PMC3564757
OpenAlex: W2100741073
Cited by: 823
References: 71
Citations by year: 2026: 68 · 2025: 72 · 2024: 60 · 2023: 88 · 2022: 95 · 2021: 79 · 2020: 83 · 2019: 44 · 2018: 50 · 2017: 37 · 2016: 37 · 2015: 46 · 2014: 48 · 2013: 15
FWCI: 9.57
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (unspecified)
Locations: PLoS Medicine (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
ENLIGHTEN (Jurnal Bimbingan dan Konseling Islam) (acceptedVersion)
EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (acceptedVersion)
EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
RePub (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Leicester Research Archive (University of Leicester) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
University of Birmingham Research Portal (University of Birmingham) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Funders: Queen Mary University of London
National Institute for Social Care and Health Research
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Wellcome Trust (086091, 086091/Z/08/Z)
Nova Scotia Health Research Foundation
Cancer Research UK (C5529)
National Institute for Health and Care Research (NF-SI-0509-10183, NI-SI-0508-10061, RP-PG-0407-10314, NF-SI-0512-10159, RP-PG-0407-10386)
British Heart Foundation
University of Birmingham
Dalhousie University
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (918.10.615)
Center for Translational Molecular Medicine (03O-203)
Versus Arthritis
Canadian Institutes of Health Research
Medical Research Council (G0800808, G0902393)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Economic and Social Research Council
Topics: Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
Keywords: prognostic factors, prognosis, clinical outcomes, research strategies, randomised trials, intervention development, research reporting, clinical practice
MeSH terms: Decision Support Techniques, Health Services Research, Humans, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Research Design, Risk Factors, Biomarkers, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Treatment Outcome, Disease Progression, Risk Assessment, Biomedical Research

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