Reflections on the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Estimates

Byass, Peter; de Courten, Maximilian; Graham, Wendy J.; Laflamme, Lucie; McCaw-Binns, Affette; Sankoh, Osman A.; Tollman, Stephen M.; Zaba, Basia

doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001477

Cited by 112Global Health and EpidemiologyInsurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk ManagementHealth Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life

Reflections on the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Estimates

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Byass, Peter, de Courten, Maximilian, Graham, Wendy J., Laflamme, Lucie, McCaw-Binns, Affette, Sankoh, Osman A., Tollman, Stephen M., Zaba, Basia·2013·PLoS Medicine

DOI 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001477PMC PMC3699446

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Abstract

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and its partners recently completed what is probably the largest ever exercise undertaken in epidemiological modelling, the Global Burden of Disease 2010 (GBD-2010) estimates [1].These estimates attempt to characterise loss of health from disease and injury, including the effects of some major risk factors, on a global basis.They will find widespread use in coming years and influence developments in global health.However, it is important to realise that ''estimates are estimates, and not measurements''; they may perform better in some respects than others [2].Here, as a group of independent experts, we comment on some of the major issues raised by this important work, while noting that it is impossible to cover all the wealth of detail involved in any critique.We take collective responsibility for these views, though many specific points come from individual specialists among the authors.The Essay section contains opinion pieces on topics of broad interest to a general medical audience.

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While we attempt to capture all sources of uncertainty from sampling error, non-sampling error and model specifications in the 95% UIs, we cannot guarantee that we have captured all uncertainty.
“While we attempt to capture all sources of uncertainty from sampling error, non-sampling error and model specifications in the 95% UIs, we cannot guarantee that we have captured all uncertainty.”
From The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013 (2016) · cites this paper as [49]

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Authors: Byass, P., de Courten, M., Graham, W. J., Laflamme, L., McCaw-Binns, A., Sankoh, O. A., Tollman, S. M., & Zaba, B.
Affiliations: University of the Witwatersrand (ZA)
University of Aberdeen (GB)
Karolinska Institutet (SE)
Hanoi Medical University (VN)
Corresponding author: Byass, Peter
ORCID: Byass, Peter
Graham, Wendy J.
Laflamme, Lucie
Sankoh, Osman A.
Tollman, Stephen M.
Venue: PLoS Medicine
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Published: 2013-07-02
Volume: 10
Issue: 7
Pages: e1001477
ISSN: 1549-1277 (ISSN-L)
1549-1676
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001477
PMC: PMC3699446
OpenAlex: W2143495459
Cited by: 112
References: 18
Citations by year: 2026: 5 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 1
FWCI: 28.87
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (unspecified)
Locations: PLoS Medicine (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
Victoria University Research Repository (Victoria University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (submittedVersion)
Greater South Information System
Funders: Wellcome Trust (097318)
Topics: Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Global Health and Epidemiology
Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
Keywords: Global Burden of Disease 2010, disease burden, injuries, risk factors, global health, epidemic modeling
MeSH terms: Health Status, Humans, Global Health, Cost of Illness, Quality-Adjusted Life Years

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