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Reflections on the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Estimates
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The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and its partners recently completed what is probably the largest ever exercise undertaken in epidemiological modelling, the Global Burden of Disease 2010 (GBD-2010) estimates [1].These estimates attempt to characterise loss of health from disease and injury, including the effects of some major risk factors, on a global basis.They will find widespread use in coming years and influence developments in global health.However, it is important to realise that ''estimates are estimates, and not measurements''; they may perform better in some respects than others [2].Here, as a group of independent experts, we comment on some of the major issues raised by this important work, while noting that it is impossible to cover all the wealth of detail involved in any critique.We take collective responsibility for these views, though many specific points come from individual specialists among the authors.The Essay section contains opinion pieces on topics of broad interest to a general medical audience.
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![Figure 1 Proportions of deaths covered by vital registration, shown by GBD-2010 regions. Data from [20]; unregistered deaths from the 2010 Haiti earthquake excluded.](/paper-figures/d348fc4dc82442518a20cf54ef7e7b00/reflections-on-the-global-burden-of-disease-2010-estimates-figure-1.jpg)
![Figure 2 Diabetes mortality rates per 100,000 (with 95% uncertainty intervals) by GBD-2010 region for 2010. Data from [21].](/paper-figures/c03e21a568154b328de637e868540cde/reflections-on-the-global-burden-of-disease-2010-estimates-figure-2.jpg)
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“While we attempt to capture all sources of uncertainty from sampling error, non-sampling error and model specifications in the 95% UIs, we cannot guarantee that we have captured all uncertainty.”
From The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013 (2016) · cites this paper as [49]
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Self-citationKnowledge, moral claims and the exercise of power in global
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Metadata
- Authors
- Byass, P., de Courten, M., Graham, W. J., Laflamme, L., McCaw-Binns, A., Sankoh, O. A., Tollman, S. M., & Zaba, B.
- Affiliations
- University of the Witwatersrand (ZA)
- University of Aberdeen (GB)
- Karolinska Institutet (SE)
- Hanoi Medical University (VN)
- Corresponding author
- Byass, Peter
- Venue
- PLoS Medicine
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2013-07-02
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- e1001477
- ISSN
- 1549-1277 (ISSN-L)
- 1549-1676
- PMC
- PMC3699446
- OpenAlex
- W2143495459
- Cited by
- 112
- References
- 18
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 28.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- PLoS Medicine (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- Victoria University Research Repository (Victoria University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (submittedVersion)
- Greater South Information System
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust (097318)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Global Health and Epidemiology
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Keywords
- Global Burden of Disease 2010, disease burden, injuries, risk factors, global health, epidemic modeling
- MeSH terms
- Health Status, Humans, Global Health, Cost of Illness, Quality-Adjusted Life Years
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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