The DOI matches its Crossref record; 18 of the 18 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Reflections on the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Estimates
Open accessAbstract
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and its partners recently completed what is probably the largest ever exercise undertaken in epidemiological modelling, the Global Burden of Disease 2010 (GBD-2010) estimates [1].These estimates attempt to characterise loss of health from disease and injury, including the effects of some major risk factors, on a global basis.They will find widespread use in coming years and influence developments in global health.However, it is important to realise that ''estimates are estimates, and not measurements''; they may perform better in some respects than others [2].Here, as a group of independent experts, we comment on some of the major issues raised by this important work, while noting that it is impossible to cover all the wealth of detail involved in any critique.We take collective responsibility for these views, though many specific points come from individual specialists among the authors.The Essay section contains opinion pieces on topics of broad interest to a general medical audience.
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![Figure 1 Proportions of deaths covered by vital registration, shown by GBD-2010 regions. Data from [20]; unregistered deaths from the 2010 Haiti earthquake excluded.](/paper-figures/d348fc4dc82442518a20cf54ef7e7b00/reflections-on-the-global-burden-of-disease-2010-estimates-figure-1.jpg)
![Figure 2 Diabetes mortality rates per 100,000 (with 95% uncertainty intervals) by GBD-2010 region for 2010. Data from [21].](/paper-figures/c03e21a568154b328de637e868540cde/reflections-on-the-global-burden-of-disease-2010-estimates-figure-2.jpg)
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“While we attempt to capture all sources of uncertainty from sampling error, non-sampling error and model specifications in the 95% UIs, we cannot guarantee that we have captured all uncertainty.”
From The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013 (2016) · cites this paper as [49]
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Lim, S. S., Vos, T., Flaxman, A. D., Danaei, G., Shibuya, K., Adair-Rohani, H., AlMazroa, M. A., Amann, M., Anderson, H. R., Andrews, K. G., et al. (2012) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(12)61766-8 · Cited by 11,805
Murray, C. J. L., Vos, T., Lozano, R., Naghavi, M., Flaxman, A. D., Michaud, C., Ezzati, M., Shibuya, K., Salomon, J. A., Abdalla, S., et al. (2012) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(12)61689-4 · Cited by 8,888
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Global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis
Murray, C. J., Rosenfeld, L. C., Lim, S. S., Andrews, K. G., Foreman, K. J., Haring, D., Fullman, N., Naghavi, M., Lozano, R., & Lopez, A. D. (2012) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(12)60034-8 · Cited by 1,452
GBD 2010: design, definitions, and metrics
Murray, C. J., Ezzati, M., Flaxman, A. D., Lim, S., Lozano, R., Michaud, C., Naghavi, M., Salomon, J. A., Shibuya, K., Vos, T., et al. (2012) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(12)61899-6 · Cited by 1,103 · cited 1×
“GBD-2010 has fitted all diseases and injuries into a 291-cause hierarchy that incorporates 235 causes of death [9].”
BackgroundHealth metrics and evaluation: strengthening the science
Murray, C. J., & Frenk, J. (2008) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(08)60526-7 · Cited by 849
Wang, H., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Lofgren, K. T., Rajaratnam, J. K., Marcus, J. R., Levin-Rector, A., Levitz, C. E., Lopez, A. D., & Murray, C. J. (2012) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(12)61719-x · Cited by 810
The INDEPTH Network: filling vital gaps in global epidemiology
Sankoh, O. A., & Byass, P. (2012) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dys081 · Cited by 308
Self-citationGBD 2010: understanding disease, injury, and risk
Horton, R. (2012) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(12)62133-3 · Cited by 261
Murray, C. J., Lopez, A. D., Black, R., Ahuja, R., Ali, S. M., Baqui, A., Dandona, L., Dantzer, E., Das, V., Dhingra, U., et al. (2011) · Population Health Metrics · doi:10.1186/1478-7954-9-27 · Cited by 194
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Vos, T., Barber, R. M., Bell, B., Bertozzi-Villa, A., Biryukov, S., Bolliger, I., Charlson, F., Davis, A., Degenhardt, L., Dicker, D., et al. (2015) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(15)60692-4 · Cited by 6,414
Global Surgery 2030: evidence and solutions for achieving health, welfare, and economic development
Meara, J. G., Leather, A. J. M., Hagander, L., Alkire, B. C., Alonso, N., Ameh, E. A., Bickler, S. W., Conteh, L., Dare, A. J., Davies, J., et al. (2015) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(15)60160-x · Cited by 3,851
Haagsma, J. A., Graetz, N., Bolliger, I., Naghavi, M., Higashi, H., Mullany, E. C., Abera, S. F., Abraham, J. P., Adofo, K., Alsharif, U., et al. (2016) · Injury Prevention · doi:10.1136/injuryprev-2015-041616 · Cited by 1,302
A future for the world's children? A WHO–UNICEF–Lancet Commission
Clark, H., Coll-Seck, A. M., Banerjee, A., Peterson, S., Dalglish, S. L., Ameratunga, S., Balabanova, D., Bhan, M. K., Bhutta, Z. A., Borrazzo, J., et al. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(19)32540-1 · Cited by 1,105
Hotez, P. J., Alvarado, M., Basáñez, M.-G., Bolliger, I. W., Bourne, R., Boussinesq, M., Brooker, S. J., Brown, A. S., Buckle, G. C., Budke, C. M., et al. (2014) · PLoS neglected tropical diseases · doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002865 · Cited by 1,128
Metadata
- Authors
- Byass, P., de Courten, M., Graham, W. J., Laflamme, L., McCaw-Binns, A., Sankoh, O. A., Tollman, S. M., & Zaba, B.
- Affiliations
- University of the Witwatersrand (ZA)
- University of Aberdeen (GB)
- Karolinska Institutet (SE)
- Hanoi Medical University (VN)
- Corresponding author
- Byass, Peter
- Venue
- PLoS Medicine
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2013-07-02
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- e1001477
- ISSN
- 1549-1277 (ISSN-L)
- 1549-1676
- PMC
- PMC3699446
- OpenAlex
- W2143495459
- Cited by
- 112
- References
- 18
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 28.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- PLoS Medicine (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- Victoria University Research Repository (Victoria University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (submittedVersion)
- Greater South Information System
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust (097318)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Global Health and Epidemiology
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Keywords
- Global Burden of Disease 2010, disease burden, injuries, risk factors, global health, epidemic modeling
- MeSH terms
- Health Status, Humans, Global Health, Cost of Illness, Quality-Adjusted Life Years
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