The DOI matches its Crossref record; 15 of the 15 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Coupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease: Mathematical and Computational Explorations
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: In classical mathematical epidemiology, individuals do not adapt their contact behavior during epidemics. They do not endogenously engage, for example, in social distancing based on fear. Yet, adaptive behavior is well-documented in true epidemics. We explore the effect of including such behavior in models of epidemic dynamics. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using both nonlinear dynamical systems and agent-based computation, we model two interacting contagion processes: one of disease and one of fear of the disease. Individuals can "contract" fear through contact with individuals who are infected with the disease (the sick), infected with fear only (the scared), and infected with both fear and disease (the sick and scared). Scared individuals--whether sick or not--may remove themselves from circulation with some probability, which affects the contact dynamic, and thus the disease epidemic proper. If we allow individuals to recover from fear and return to circulation, the coupled dynamics become quite rich, and can include multiple waves of infection. We also study flight as a behavioral response. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In a spatially extended setting, even relatively small levels of fear-inspired flight can have a dramatic impact on spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics. Self-isolation and spatial flight are only two of many possible actions that fear-infected individuals may take. Our main point is that behavioral adaptation of some sort must be considered.
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Cited by
Modelling the influence of human behaviour on the spread of infectious diseases: a review
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The Role of Fear-Related Behaviors in the 2013–2016 West Africa Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak
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“COVID-19 poses both a physical threat, due to its contagiousness, and a psychological threat through the fear it provokes (a phenomenon referred to as ‘coupled contagion’ by Epstein, 2020; Epstein et al., 2008).”
BackgroundAssessing the Use of Agent-Based Models for Tobacco Regulation
Committee on the Assessment of Agent-Based Models to Inform Tobacco Product Regulation, Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice, & Institute of Medicine (2015) · doi:10.17226/19018 · Cited by 83
Metadata
- Authors
- Epstein, J. M., Parker, J., Cummings, D., & Hammond, R. A.
- Venue
- PLoS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2008-12-16
- Volume
- 3
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- e3955
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3123259284
- Cited by
- 389
- References
- 15
- FWCI
- 14.88
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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